Evolving chemometric models for predicting dynamic process parameters in viscose production.

In viscose production, it is important to monitor three process parameters in order to assure a high quality of the final product: the concentrations of H(2)SO(4), Na(2)SO(4) and Z(n)SO(4). During on-line production these process parameters usually show a quite high dynamics depending on the fiber type that is produced. Thus, conventional chemometric models, which are trained based on collected calibration spectra from Fourier transform near infrared (FT-NIR) measurements and kept fixed during the whole life-time of the on-line process, show a quite imprecise and unreliable behavior when predicting the concentrations of new on-line data. In this paper, we are demonstrating evolving chemometric models which are able to adapt automatically to varying process dynamics by updating their inner structures and parameters in a single-pass incremental manner. These models exploit the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model architecture, being able to model flexibly different degrees of non-linearities implicitly contained in the mapping between near infrared spectra (NIR) and reference values. Updating the inner structures is achieved by moving the position of already existing local regions and by evolving (increasing non-linearity) or merging (decreasing non-linearity) new local linear predictors on demand, which are guided by distance-based and similarity criteria. Gradual forgetting mechanisms may be integrated in order to out-date older learned relations and to account for more flexibility of the models. The results show that our approach is able to overcome the huge prediction errors produced by various state-of-the-art chemometric models. It achieves a high correlation between observed and predicted target values in the range of [0.95,0.98] over a 3 months period while keeping the relative error below the reference error value of 3%. In contrast, the off-line techniques achieved correlations below 0.5, ten times higher error rates and the more deteriorate, the more time passes by.