A Prediction Model for Preoperative Risk Assessment in Endometrial Cancer Utilizing Clinical and Molecular Variables.

ABSTRACT

The utility of comprehensive surgical staging in patients with low risk disease has been questioned. Thus, a reliable means of determining risk would be quite useful. The aim of our study was to create the best performing prediction model to classify endometrioid endometrial cancer (EEC) patients into low or high risk using a combination of molecular and clinical-pathological variables. We then validated these models with publicly available datasets. Analyses between low and high risk EEC were performed using clinical and pathological data, gene and miRNA expression data, gene copy number variation and somatic mutation data. Variables were selected to be included in the prediction model of risk using cross-validation analysis; prediction models were then constructed using these variables. Model performance was assessed by area under the curve (AUC). Prediction models were validated using appropriate datasets in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) databases. A prediction model with only clinical variables performed at 88%. Integrating clinical and molecular data improved prediction performance up to 97%. The best prediction models included clinical, miRNA expression and/or somatic mutation data, and stratified pre-operative risk in EEC patients. Integrating molecular and clinical data improved the performance of prediction models to over 95%, resulting in potentially useful clinical tests.