Effectiveness of Containment Measures Against COVID-19 in Singapore: Implications for Other National Containment Efforts.
Epidemiology
; 32(1): 79-86, 2021 01.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33044319
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
We hypothesize that comprehensive surveillance of COVID-19 in Singapore has facilitated early case detection and prompt contact tracing and, with community-based measures, contained spread. We assessed the effectiveness of containment measures by estimating transmissibility (effective reproduction number, (Equation is included in full-text article.)) over the course of the outbreak.METHODS:
We used a Bayesian data augmentation framework to allocate infectors to infectees with no known infectors and determine serial interval distribution parameters via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. We fitted a smoothing spline to the number of secondary cases generated by each infector by respective onset dates to estimate (Equation is included in full-text article.)and evaluated increase in mean number of secondary cases per individual for each day's delay in starting isolation or quarantine.RESULTS:
As of April 1, 2020, 1000 COVID-19 cases were reported in Singapore. We estimated a mean serial interval of 4.6 days [95% credible interval (CI) = 4.2, 5.1] with a SD of 3.5 days (95% CI = 3.1, 4.0). The posterior mean (Equation is included in full-text article.)was below one for most of the time, peaking at 1.1 (95% CI = 1.0, 1.3) on week 9 of 2020 due to a spreading event in one of the clusters. Eight hundred twenty-seven (82.7%) of cases infected less than one person on average. Over an interval of 7 days, the incremental mean number of cases generated per individual for each day's delay in starting isolation or quarantine was 0.03 cases (95% CI = 0.02, 0.05).CONCLUSIONS:
We estimate that robust surveillance, active case detection, prompt contact tracing, and quarantine of close contacts kept (Equation is included in full-text article.)below one.
Texto completo:
1
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis
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COVID-19
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Política de Saúde
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
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Health_economic_evaluation
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Prognostic_studies
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Screening_studies
Limite:
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article