Risk assessment model for heart failure in Chinese patients with Takayasu's arteritis.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to construct and validate a risk assessment model to identify risk factors for heart failure (HF) in patients with Takayasu's arteritis (TAK). METHODS: Three hundred sixty-five patients with TAK were recruited in the East China Takayasu Arteritis Cohort from January 2012 to December 2019. Patients were assigned into training and validation sets following a 2:1 ratio according to the date of enrollment. Clinical characteristics were compared between heart failure (HF) and non-HF subgroups in the training set, and a risk assessment model for HF and its scoring algorithm was established based on logistic regression, which was tested in the validation set. RESULTS: Among total of 74 (20.27%) TAK patients exhibited HF, and 55 cases (74.32%) were in the training set. The risk factors for HF of TAK patients included onset age >38 years, serum tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α concentration >10 pg/ml, aortic valve involvement, coronary artery involvement, and pulmonary hypertension. We constructed the model without TNF-α (Model 1) and with TNF-α (Model 2). Patients in the training set with the score ≥ 3 appeared to be associated with an increased risk of HF with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.88 and 0.90 in Model 1 and Model 2 respectively. The AUC reached to 0.88 and 0.89 in the validation set that proved the accuracy of the model. CONCLUSIONS: We presented a risk assessment model of HF in TAK, which may help clinicians alert the complication of HF in the patients with specifically cardiac impairments. Key Points • Heart failure was not rare in Chinese Takayasu's arteritis patients, and there were approximately 20% of patients with heart failure in ECTA cohort. • Cardiac involvements on echocardiography include pathological valvular and atrioventricular abnormalities. • The onset age >38 years, serum tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α concentration >10 pg/ml, aortic valve involvement, coronary artery involvement, and pulmonary hypertension were risk factors for heart failure in Takayasu's arteritis patients. • We constructed the model without TNF-α (Model 1) and with TNF-α (Model 2). Patients with the risk assessment model score of ≥ 3 appeared to be associated with an increased risk of heart failure.