ABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients: development, external validation and comparison with other available scores.
Int J Infect Dis
; 110: 281-308, 2021 Sep.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34311100
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES:
The majority of available scores to assess mortality risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients in the emergency department have high risk of bias. Therefore, this cohort aimed to develop and validate a score at hospital admission for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients and to compare this score with other existing ones.METHODS:
Consecutive patients (≥ 18 years) with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the participating hospitals were included. Logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a prediction model for in-hospital mortality, based on the 3978 patients admitted between March-July, 2020. The model was validated in the 1054 patients admitted during August-September, as well as in an external cohort of 474 Spanish patients.RESULTS:
Median (25-75th percentile) age of the model-derivation cohort was 60 (48-72) years, and in-hospital mortality was 20.3%. The validation cohorts had similar age distribution and in-hospital mortality. Seven significant variables were included in the risk score age, blood urea nitrogen, number of comorbidities, C-reactive protein, SpO2/FiO2 ratio, platelet count, and heart rate. The model had high discriminatory value (AUROC 0.844, 95% CI 0.829-0.859), which was confirmed in the Brazilian (0.859 [95% CI 0.833-0.885]) and Spanish (0.894 [95% CI 0.870-0.919]) validation cohorts, and displayed better discrimination ability than other existing scores. It is implemented in a freely available online risk calculator (https//abc2sph.com/).CONCLUSIONS:
An easy-to-use rapid scoring system based on characteristics of COVID-19 patients commonly available at hospital presentation was designed and validated for early stratification of in-hospital mortality risk of patients with COVID-19.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
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Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
COVID-19
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
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Observational_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Aged
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Humans
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Middle aged
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article