HCC risk stratification after cure of hepatitis C in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease.
J Hepatol
; 76(4): 812-821, 2022 Apr.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34871626
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND & AIMS:
Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) caused by chronic hepatitis C who have achieved sustained virologic response (SVR). We developed risk stratification algorithms for de novo HCC development after SVR and validated them in an independent cohort.METHODS:
We evaluated the occurrence of de novo HCC in a derivation cohort of 527 patients with pre-treatment ACLD and SVR to interferon-free therapy, in whom alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and non-invasive surrogates of portal hypertension including liver stiffness measurement (LSM) were assessed pre-/post-treatment. We validated our results in 1,500 patients with compensated ACLD (cACLD) from other European centers.RESULTS:
During a median follow-up (FU) of 41 months, 22/475 patients with cACLD (4.6%, 1.45/100 patient-years) vs. 12/52 decompensated patients (23.1%, 7.00/100 patient-years, p <0.001) developed de novo HCC. Since decompensated patients were at substantial HCC risk, we focused on cACLD for all further analyses. In cACLD, post-treatment-values showed a higher discriminative ability for patients with/without de novo HCC development during FU than pre-treatment values or absolute/relative changes. Models based on post-treatment AFP, alcohol consumption (optional), age, LSM, and albumin, accurately predicted de novo HCC development (bootstrapped Harrel's C with/without considering alcohol 0.893/0.836). Importantly, these parameters also provided independent prognostic information in competing risk analysis and accurately stratified patients into low- (~2/3 of patients) and high-risk (~1/3 of patients) groups in the derivation (algorithm with alcohol consumption; 4-year HCC-risk 0% vs. 16.5%) and validation (3.3% vs. 17.5%) cohorts. An alternative approach based on alcohol consumption (optional), age, LSM, and albumin (i.e., without AFP) also showed a robust performance.CONCLUSIONS:
Simple algorithms based on post-treatment age/albumin/LSM, and optionally, AFP and alcohol consumption, accurately stratified patients with cACLD based on their risk of de novo HCC after SVR. Approximately two-thirds were identified as having an HCC risk <1%/year in both the derivation and validation cohort, thereby clearly falling below the cost-effectiveness threshold for HCC surveillance. LAYSUMMARY:
Simple algorithms based on age, alcohol consumption, results of blood tests (albumin and α-fetoprotein), as well as liver stiffness measurement after the end of hepatitis C treatment identify a large proportion (approximately two-thirds) of patients with advanced but still asymptomatic liver disease who are at very low risk (<1%/year) of liver cancer development, and thus, might not need to undergo 6-monthly liver ultrasound.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
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Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Hepatite C
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Carcinoma Hepatocelular
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Hepatite C Crônica
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Neoplasias Hepáticas
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
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Etiology_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2022
Tipo de documento:
Article