Performance of the Emergency Surgery Score (ESS) for nonelective infrainguinal open revascularization procedures (NEIOR).

BACKGROUND: The Emergency Surgery Score has been previously validated as a reliable; tool to predict postoperative outcomes in emergency general surgery. The purpose of this study was to assess the performance of the Emergency Surgery Score for infrainguinal open revascularization procedures in the nonelective setting. METHODS: The American College of Surgeons' National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was retrospectively analyzed for patients undergoing infrainguinal open revascularization procedures in the nonelective setting between 2015 and 2019. The performance of the Emergency Surgery Score in predicting mortality in each procedure was assessed using receiver operating characteristic analyses. RESULTS: A total of 5,027 patients underwent infrainguinal open revascularization procedures in the nonelective setting with median age 68 (±11.66 standard deviation), with 1,666 females (33.1%). The 30-day mortality rate was 2.7%. The Emergency Surgery Score correlated with 30-day mortality (area under the curve was 0.738). The Emergency Surgery Score also predicted risk of death/discharge to hospice (area under the curve 0.756), discharge to rehab (area under the curve 0.643), renal failure (area under the curve 0.741), postintervention ventilation requirement (0.684), stroke (0.717), cardiopulmonary arrest (0.657), and septic shock (0.697). A cumulative frequency table of mortality with Emergency Surgery Score was used to partition patients into quartiles of Emergency Surgery Score ≤5, Emergency Surgery Score of 6, Emergency Surgery Score of 7 or 8, and Emergency Surgery Score ≥9. A Cochran-Armitage test showed linear trend toward increased 30-day mortality among the quartiles with increasing Emergency Surgery Score (P < .001), with quartile 4 (Emergency Surgery Score ≥10) having 13 times odds of increased 30-day mortality compared to reference quartile 1 (Emergency Surgery Score ≤4). CONCLUSION: Emergency Surgery Score performance accurately predicts mortality for infrainguinal open revascularization procedures in the nonelective setting procedures. It may be useful for preoperative risk stratification and for national benchmarking after nonelective open lower extremity procedures.