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Epidemic monitoring in real-time based on dynamic grid search and Monte Carlo numerical simulation algorithm.
Chen, Xin; Ning, Huijun; Guo, Liuwang; Diao, Dongming; Zhou, Xinru; Zhang, Xiaoliang.
Afiliação
  • Chen X; College of Civil Architecture, Henan University of Science and Technology, Luoyang, China.
  • Ning H; College of Civil Architecture, Henan University of Science and Technology, Luoyang, China.
  • Guo L; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Henan University of Science and Technology, Luoyang, China.
  • Diao D; College of Civil Architecture, Henan University of Science and Technology, Luoyang, China.
  • Zhou X; School of Information Management and Engineering, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai, China.
  • Zhang X; College of Civil Architecture, Henan University of Science and Technology, Luoyang, China.
PeerJ Comput Sci ; 9: e1479, 2023.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37547412
Building upon the foundational principles of the grid search algorithm and Monte Carlo numerical simulation, this article introduces an innovative epidemic monitoring and prevention plan. The plan offers the capability to accurately identify the sources of infectious diseases and predict the final scale and duration of the epidemic. The proposed plan is implemented in schools and society, utilizing computer simulation analysis. Through this analysis, the plan enables precise localization of infection sources for various demographic groups, with an error rate of less than 3%. Additionally, the plan allows for the estimation of the epidemic cycle duration, which typically spans around 14 days. Notably, higher population density enhances fault tolerance and prediction accuracy, resulting in smaller errors and more reliable simulation outcomes. Overall, this study provides highly valuable theoretical guidance for effective epidemic prevention and control efforts.
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Texto completo: 1 Base de dados: MEDLINE Tipo de estudo: Prognostic_studies Idioma: En Ano de publicação: 2023 Tipo de documento: Article

Texto completo: 1 Base de dados: MEDLINE Tipo de estudo: Prognostic_studies Idioma: En Ano de publicação: 2023 Tipo de documento: Article