Trends by age and sex and projections of disease prevalence from studying hypertensive heart disease in China over the past three decades.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Hypertensive heart disease (HHD) is a common cause of cardiovascular disease and mortality worldwide, and its burden is increasing with aging populations. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to estimate the prevalence and mortality rates of HHD in mainland China and Taiwan Province using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019), and forecast the development trend of HHD from 2020 to 2024. METHODS: We obtained data on number of cases, deaths, crude prevalence rate, crude death rate, age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) for mainland China and Taiwan Province from 1990 to 2019 from the GBD 2019. Joinpoint software was used to estimate average annual percentage change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals, and the number of HHD cases in China from 2022 to 2024 was predicted by the exponential smoothing method. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, HHD cases and deaths increased in mainland China, but the ASPR and ASDR decreased by 5.96% and 48.72%, respectively. In Taiwan Province, ASPR and ASDR decreased by 7.66% and 52.14%, respectively. The number of HHD cases and death rates varied by region, age, and sex, with a higher number of cases in mainland China than in Taiwan Province. By 2024, the number of HHD cases in mainland China was projected to be over 9.6 million cases, and in Taiwan Province, it was projected to surpass 120,000 cases. CONCLUSION: The differences in HHD cases between mainland China and Taiwan Province in terms of age and sex indicated the need for effective prevention and control measures, especially targeting the elderly population. These findings can inform policymakers and health professionals in the development of targeted prevention and treatment strategies and resource allocation for HHD in China.