A needs-based methodology to project physicians and nurses to 2030: the case of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

BACKGROUND: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), as part of its 2030 National Transformation Program, set a goal of transforming the healthcare sector to increase access to, and improve the quality and efficiency of, health services. To assist with the workforce planning component, we projected the needed number of physicians and nurses into 2030. We developed a new needs-based methodology since previous global benchmarks of health worker concentration may not apply to the KSA. METHODS: We constructed an epidemiologic "needs-based" model that takes into account the health needs of the KSA population, cost-effective treatment service delivery models, and worker productivity. This model relied heavily on up-to-date epidemiologic and workforce surveys in the KSA. We used demographic population projections to estimate the number of nurses and physicians needed to provide this core set of services into 2030. We also assessed several alternative scenarios and policy decisions related to scaling, task-shifting, and enhanced public health campaigns. RESULTS: When projected to 2030, the baseline needs-based estimate is approximately 75,000 workers (5788 physicians and 69,399 nurses). This workforce equates to 2.05 physicians and nurses per 1000 population. Alternative models based on different scenarios and policy decisions indicate that the actual needs for physicians and nurses may range from 1.64 to 3.05 per 1000 population in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our projections, the KSA will not face a needs-based health worker shortage in 2030. However, alternative model projections raise important policy and planning issues regarding various strategies the KSA may pursue in improving quality and efficiency of the existing workforce. More broadly, where country-level data are available, our needs-based strategy can serve as a useful step-by-step workforce planning tool to complement more economic demand-based workforce projections.

Projecting health labor market dynamics for a health system in transition: planning for a resilient health workforce in Saudi Arabia.

BACKGROUND: Health workforce planning is critical for health systems to safeguard the ability to afford, train, recruit, and retain the appropriate number and mix of health workers. This balance is especially important when macroeconomic structures are also reforming. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is moving toward greater diversification, privatization, and resiliency; health sectorreform is a key pillar of this transition. METHODS: We used the Ministry of Health Yearbook data on the number of workers and health expenditures from 2007 to 2018 and projected health labor market supply and demand of workers through 2030, evaluated the potential shortages and surpluses, and simulated different policy scenarios to identify relevant interventions. We further focused on projections for health workers who are Saudi nationals and health worker demand within the public sector (versus the private sector) to inform national objectives of reducing dependency on foreign workers and better deploying public sector resources. RESULTS: We projected the overall health labor market to demand 9.07 physicians and nurses per 1,000 population (356,514) in 2030; the public sector will account for approximately 67% of this overall demand. Compared to a projected supply of 10.16 physicians and nurses per 1,000 population (399,354), we estimated an overall modest surplus of about 42,840 physicians and nurses in 2030. However, only about 17% of these workers are estimated to be Saudi nationals, for whom there will be a demand shortage of 287,895 workers. Among policy scenarios considered, increasing work hours had the largest effect on reducing shortages of Saudi workers, followed by bridge programs for training more nurses. Government resources can also be redirected to supporting more Saudi nurses while still ensuring adequate numbers of physicians to meet service delivery goals in 2030. CONCLUSION: Despite projected overall balance in the labor market for health workers in 2030, without policy interventions, severe gaps in the Saudi workforce will persist and limit progress toward health system resiliency in Saudi Arabia. Both supply- and demand-side policy interventions should be considered, prioritizing those that increase productivity among Saudi health workers, enhance training for nurses, and strategically redeploy financial resources toward employing these workers.

Challenges and policy opportunities in nursing in Saudi Arabia.

BACKGROUND: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's (KSA) health sector is undergoing rapid reform in line with the National Transformation Program, as part of Saudi's vision for the future, Vision 2030. From a nursing human resources for health (HRH) perspective, there are challenges of low nursing school capacity, high employment of expatriates, labor market fragmentation, shortage of nurses in rural areas, uneven quality, and gender challenges. CASE PRESENTATION: This case study summarizes Saudi Ministry of Health (MOH) and Saudi Health Council's (SHCs) evaluation of the current challenges facing the nursing profession in the KSA. We propose policy interventions to support the transformation of nursing into a profession that contributes to efficient, high-quality healthcare for every Saudi citizen. Key to the success of modernizing the Saudi workforce will be an improved pipeline of nurses that leads from middle and high school to nursing school; followed by a diverse career path that includes postgraduate education. To retain nurses in the profession, there are opportunities to make nursing practice more attractive and family friendly. Interventions include reducing shift length, redesigning the nursing team to add more allied health workers, and introducing locum tenens staffing to balance work-load. There are opportunities to modernize existing nurse postgraduate education, open new postgraduate programs in nursing, and create new positions and career paths for nurses such as telenursing, informatics, and quality. Rural pipelines should be created, with incentives and increased compensation packages for underserved areas. CONCLUSIONS: Critical to these proposed reforms is the collaboration of the MOH with partners across the healthcare system, particularly the private sector. Human resources planning should be sector-wide and nursing leadership should be strengthened at all levels.