How fast will the registered nurse workforce grow through 2030? Projections in nine regions of the country.

BACKGROUND: After an unprecedented increase in nursing school enrollment and graduates in the past 10 years, projected shortages of nurses have been erased at a national level. However, nursing markets are local, and an uneven distribution of health care providers of all types is a longstanding feature of health care in the United States. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to understand how the outlook for future registered nurse (RN) supply varies regionally across the United States. METHODS: We apply our nursing supply model to the nine U.S. Census Divisions to produce separate supply forecasts for each region. DISCUSSION: We find dramatic differences in expected future growth of the nursing workforce across U.S. regions. These range from zero expected growth in the number of RNs per capita in New England and in the Pacific regions between 2015 and 2030 to 40% growth in the East South Central region (Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky) and in the West South Central region (Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana). CONCLUSION: Assuming growth in the demand for RNs per population, some regions of the United States are expected to face shortfalls in their nursing workforce if recent trends do not change.

Recent Changes in the Number of Nurses Graduating from Undergraduate and Graduate Programs.

Since the 1970s, a number of initiatives have attempted to increase the proportion of nursing graduates with a baccalaureate degree, but with little national effect. Now market forces, health reforms, and an Institute of Medicine report (2011) have combined to transform the educational composition of the nursing workforce. Today, there are considerably more graduates of baccalaureate nursing programs than associate degree programs. The educational transformation of the nursing workforce is not limited to baccalaureate education but includes the rapidly increasing numbers of registered nurses who have earned graduate degrees. These changes in nursing education are increasing the readiness of nursing professionals to capitalize on new opportunities, overcome challenges, and take on new roles and responsibilities as the nation's health care delivery and payments systems evolve in coming years.

Do Associate Degree Registered Nurses Fare Differently in the Nurse Labor Market Compared to Baccalaureate-Prepared RNs?

Roughly 40% of the nearly 3 million registered nurses (RNs) in the United States have an associate's degree (ADN) as their highest level of nursing education. Yet even before the recent Institute of Medicine report on The Future of Nursing, employers of RNs have increasingly preferred baccalaureate-prepared RNs (BSNs), at least anecdotally. Data from the American Community Survey (2003-2013) were analyzed with respect to employment setting, earnings, and employment outcomes of ADN and BSN-prepared RNs. The data reveal a divergence in employment setting: the percentage of ADN-prepared RNs employed in hospitals dropped from 65% to 60% while the percentage of BSN-prepared RNs employed in hospitals grew from 67% to 72% over this period. Many ADNs who would have otherwise been employed in hospitals seem to have shifted to long-term care settings.

Health care reform and the health care workforce--the Massachusetts experience.

Massachusetts' experience with health care reform may be predictive of the effects of national health care reform. Data on employment in the health care industry were examined to determine the impact of the Massachusetts reform on the state's health care workforce.

Projections of the long-term growth of the registered nurse workforce: a regional analysis.

Providing regional projections of the RN workforce will allow underlying differences in the age structure of the RN workforce to become more visible. By providing regional-level projections, it will also be possible to identify those regions whose RN workforce is expected to grow at a slower rate relative to other regions. States in the South and Midwest have a greater supply of younger-aged RNs available to replace fewer numbers of older-age RNs compared to other regions. In contrast, the Northeast and West have fewer younger RNs currently in their workforce yet a relatively larger number of older age RNs to replace. These differences in age structure may be partly due to differences in nursing school enrollment and expansion in nursing education capacity across regions. This information can help guide national and state health workforce planners, employers, educators, and others in developing policies and initiatives that may impact nursing supply in their states.

Characteristics of rural registered nurses and the implications for workforce policy.

PURPOSE: Rural registered nurses (RNs) play an integral role in providing care for an underserved population with worse health outcomes than urban counterparts. However, little information is available on the profile of this workforce, which is necessary to understand the capacity of these nurses to provide quality and demanded care presently and in the future. METHODS: We utilize data from the American Community Survey to provide a contemporary analysis on the supply of rural RNs in the United States. FINDINGS: While the number of physicians serving rural populations has decreased in recent years, and rural nurse practitioners (NPs) remain in short supply, rural RNs have steadily grown in numbers at a rate comparable to urban RNs. Rural RNs are markedly less diverse than the populations they serve and only half of rural RNs had a bachelor's degree or higher compared to over 70% for urban RNs. In their supply, young rural nurses appear on pace with urban nurses to adequately replace older nurses and continue to grow the workforce, based on data through 2019. CONCLUSIONS: The rural RN workforce is projected to steadily grow amidst declining rural physicians and limited rural NPs. The burgeoning investments in the rural health workforce present opportunities to help diversify, increase educational access, and further rural readiness for rural RNs moving forward.

Are nurses ready for health care reform? A decade of survey research.

As health care delivery organizations react to the changes brought about by public and private sector reform initiatives, RNs can anticipate that, in addition to intended outcomes, there will be unpredictable pressures and unintended consequences arising from reform. Biennial national surveys of RNs conducted over the past decade have explored various changes in the nursing workforce, quality of the workplace environment, staffing and payment policies, and RNs' views of health policy, including their expectations of health reform. The latest survey results offer a picture of RNs' capacity to practice successfully in a care delivery environment that, over the current decade, is expected to emphasize teams, care coordination, and become driven increasingly by payment incentives that reward quality, safety, and efficiency. If RNs are provided with strong clinical leadership, participate in developing an achievable vision of the future, and if supported to take risks and innovate to improve the quality and efficiency of care delivery, then the profession is likely to thrive rather than struggle during the health reform years that lie ahead. Increasing the education and preparation of nursing leaders, and particularly unit-level managers, will be increasingly vital for nursing to prosper in the future.

Optimal Staffing Models To Care For Frail Older Adults In Primary Care And Geriatrics Practices In The US.

Different staffing configurations in primary and geriatric care practices could have implications for how best to deliver services that are essential for a growing population of older adults. Using data from a 2018 survey of physicians (MDs) and nurse practitioners (NPs) working in primary and geriatric care, we assessed whether different configurations were associated with better or worse performance on a number of standard process measures indicative of comprehensive, high-quality primary care. Practices with a large concentration of MDs had the highest estimated labor costs. Practices high in NPs and physician assistants (PAs) were most common in states that grant full scope of practice to NPs. The high-NP/PA configuration was associated with a 17-percentage-point greater probability of facilitating patient visits and a 26-percentage-point greater probability of providing the full bundle of primary care services compared with the high-MD model. Team-based configurations had a 27.7-percentage-point greater probability of providing the full bundle of primary care services. The complex needs of older adults may be best served by team-based practices with a broad provider mix that can provide a range of services in the office and the community.

Quality improvement education for nurses: we can do better.

The results of a national survey of new nurses provide a wake-up call to educators and employers that they must do better in educating nurses in quality improvement.

What is the harm in imposing mandatory hospital nurse staffing regulations?

Efforts to establish mandated staffing ratios are shortsighted, and, though proponents may have the best intentions, many negative outcomes would flow from the public airing of this issue. The Institute of Medicine concluded in 1996 that there was insufficient quality outcome evidence to support the imposition of mandated nurse staffing ratios. The Massachusetts Nursing Association got legislation introduced in early 1996 which, if passed, would turn over to state lawmakers decisions governing nurse staffing in hospitals and other employment settings. There are high opportunity costs. Staffing regulations (if imposed) would force employers to ignore the dynamic interactions of economic, technology, capital, and labor supply variables, and thus needlessly impose the effect of increased labor costs on hospitals, taxpayers, and nurses themselves. Chance for passage of this highly controversial legislation is unlikely, but the expenditure of political chips (and the loss of credibility) will increase the difficulty of obtaining a hearing from legislators the next time a nursing issue comes up.

Magnet status and registered nurse views of the work environment and nursing as a career.

OBJECTIVES: To compare how registered nurses view the work environment and the nursing shortage based on the Magnet status of their organizations. BACKGROUND: The upsurge in organizations pursuing and obtaining Magnet recognition provides increased opportunities to investigate whether and how registered nurses who are employed in Magnet organizations and organizations pursuing Magnet status perceive differences in the nursing shortage, hospitals' responses to the shortage, characteristics of the work environment, and professional relationships. METHODS: A nationally representative sample of registered nurses licensed to practice in the United States was surveyed. The views of registered nurses who worked in Magnet organizations, organizations in the process of applying for Magnet status, and non-Magnet organizations were analyzed as independent groups. RESULTS: Significant differences were found. Although there is a clear Magnet difference, there are also identifiable differences that occur during the pursuit of Magnet recognition. CONCLUSION: Many organizations in the process of applying for Magnet status rated higher than Magnet organizations, indicating that there is much to do to maintain the comparative advantages for Magnet hospitals.

Avoiding mandatory hospital nurse staffing ratios: an economic commentary.

The imposition of mandatory hospital nurse staffing ratios is among the more visible public policy initiatives affecting the nursing profession. Although the practice is intended to address problems in hospital nurse staffing and quality of patient care, this commentary argues that staffing ratios will lead to negative consequences for nurses involving the equity, efficiency, and costs of producing nursing care in hospitals. Rather than spend time and effort attempting to regulate nurse staffing, this commentary offers alternatives strategies that are directed at fixing the problems that motivate the advocates of staffing ratios.

The shape of the recovery: economic implications for the nursing workforce.

Given this analysis of the factors behind the apparent end to the recession, the uncertain shape of the recovery and whether the overall job market will rebound quickly or slowly, and the implications for nurse employment and earnings, what can nurse executives and managers do to prepare for the future? Nursing executives and unit-level managers should assess their nursing staff's attitudes toward their jobs, job satisfaction, and their spouse's employment status. Executives should also identify the major employers in their local economy and establish a strategy to monitor their economic performance. Working with the human resources department, nurse leaders should develop an action plan to identify initiatives that can be implemented in the near term, such as taking steps to increase job satisfaction, promote better relationships between management and nurses, and improve the ergonomic environment of the workplace to ease the physical and mental strain on older RNs. Nurse executives and managers must sharpen their focus on how quickly the job recovery unfolds and prepare for how the recovery will affect the nursing workforce in their own institution and community.

Can the nursing profession win the game?

The ebb and flow of a basketball game is analogous to the nursing profession's recent past, its current state, and where the profession is heading. The metaphor of a basketball game provides a way of describing the timing of events that have shaped nursing over the past 20 years, and whether and how the next 15 years will be looked upon by historians as the greatest period in the history of the nursing profession. For this outcome to occur, nurses and the profession's leaders must see that the set of third quarter challenges are opportunities to deepen nursing's social relevance and its commitment to increase the health of people.

The potential imposition of wage controls on nurses: a threat to nurses, patients, and hospitals.

When there are shortages of RNs, hospitals and health care organizations in competitive nurse labor markets respond by increasing wages: some hospitals will respond faster and some will offer higher wages than others. The wage increase brings about two important short and long-run outcomes that, together, will increase the supply of RNs in the labor market. Because wage controls prevent the flexibility of wages to adjust, they can cause a shortage to develop when the demand for RNs is increasing (as in the 1970s), and wage controls will lengthen the duration of a shortage once it has begun. The impacts of prolonged RN shortages are multifaceted and destructive to nurses, patients, and hospitals. Looking ahead over the next 15 years when the demand for RNs is expected to grow by roughly 3% per year and the supply of RNs by much less than that, a new nursing shortage is projected to develop and reach a deficit of 285,000 RNs by 2020. The worst thing that could happen to the nursing profession would be to impose wage controls on nurses as this would prevent the needed short and long-run labor supply responses from developing and thereby eliminate the shortage.

The Extraregulatory Effect of Nurse Practitioner Scope-of-Practice Laws on Physician Malpractice Rates.

Patients can hold physicians directly or vicariously liable for the malpractice of nurse practitioners under their supervision. Restrictive scope-of-practice laws governing nurse practitioners can ease patients' legal burdens in establishing physician liability. We analyze the effect of restrictive scope-of-practice laws on the number of malpractice payments made on behalf of physicians between 1999 and 2012. Enacting less restrictive scope-of-practice laws decreases the number of payments made by physicians by as much as 31%, suggesting that restrictive scope-of-practice laws have a salient extraregulatory effect on physician malpractice rates. The effect of enacting less restrictive laws varies depending on the medical malpractice reforms that are in place, with the largest decrease in physician malpractice rates occurring in states that have enacted fewer malpractice reforms. Relaxing scope-of-practice laws could mitigate the adverse extraregulatory effect on physicians identified in this study and could also lead to improvements in access to care.