A needs-based methodology to project physicians and nurses to 2030: the case of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

BACKGROUND: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), as part of its 2030 National Transformation Program, set a goal of transforming the healthcare sector to increase access to, and improve the quality and efficiency of, health services. To assist with the workforce planning component, we projected the needed number of physicians and nurses into 2030. We developed a new needs-based methodology since previous global benchmarks of health worker concentration may not apply to the KSA. METHODS: We constructed an epidemiologic "needs-based" model that takes into account the health needs of the KSA population, cost-effective treatment service delivery models, and worker productivity. This model relied heavily on up-to-date epidemiologic and workforce surveys in the KSA. We used demographic population projections to estimate the number of nurses and physicians needed to provide this core set of services into 2030. We also assessed several alternative scenarios and policy decisions related to scaling, task-shifting, and enhanced public health campaigns. RESULTS: When projected to 2030, the baseline needs-based estimate is approximately 75,000 workers (5788 physicians and 69,399 nurses). This workforce equates to 2.05 physicians and nurses per 1000 population. Alternative models based on different scenarios and policy decisions indicate that the actual needs for physicians and nurses may range from 1.64 to 3.05 per 1000 population in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our projections, the KSA will not face a needs-based health worker shortage in 2030. However, alternative model projections raise important policy and planning issues regarding various strategies the KSA may pursue in improving quality and efficiency of the existing workforce. More broadly, where country-level data are available, our needs-based strategy can serve as a useful step-by-step workforce planning tool to complement more economic demand-based workforce projections.

Projecting health labor market dynamics for a health system in transition: planning for a resilient health workforce in Saudi Arabia.

BACKGROUND: Health workforce planning is critical for health systems to safeguard the ability to afford, train, recruit, and retain the appropriate number and mix of health workers. This balance is especially important when macroeconomic structures are also reforming. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is moving toward greater diversification, privatization, and resiliency; health sectorreform is a key pillar of this transition. METHODS: We used the Ministry of Health Yearbook data on the number of workers and health expenditures from 2007 to 2018 and projected health labor market supply and demand of workers through 2030, evaluated the potential shortages and surpluses, and simulated different policy scenarios to identify relevant interventions. We further focused on projections for health workers who are Saudi nationals and health worker demand within the public sector (versus the private sector) to inform national objectives of reducing dependency on foreign workers and better deploying public sector resources. RESULTS: We projected the overall health labor market to demand 9.07 physicians and nurses per 1,000 population (356,514) in 2030; the public sector will account for approximately 67% of this overall demand. Compared to a projected supply of 10.16 physicians and nurses per 1,000 population (399,354), we estimated an overall modest surplus of about 42,840 physicians and nurses in 2030. However, only about 17% of these workers are estimated to be Saudi nationals, for whom there will be a demand shortage of 287,895 workers. Among policy scenarios considered, increasing work hours had the largest effect on reducing shortages of Saudi workers, followed by bridge programs for training more nurses. Government resources can also be redirected to supporting more Saudi nurses while still ensuring adequate numbers of physicians to meet service delivery goals in 2030. CONCLUSION: Despite projected overall balance in the labor market for health workers in 2030, without policy interventions, severe gaps in the Saudi workforce will persist and limit progress toward health system resiliency in Saudi Arabia. Both supply- and demand-side policy interventions should be considered, prioritizing those that increase productivity among Saudi health workers, enhance training for nurses, and strategically redeploy financial resources toward employing these workers.

Evidence on the impact of community health workers in the prevention, identification, and management of undernutrition amongst children under the age of five in conflict-affected or fragile settings: a systematic literature review.

BACKGROUND: Malnutrition, specifically undernutrition, is a significant global challenge that contributes to nearly half of deaths in children under the age of five. The burden of undernutrition is disproportionately borne by conflict-affected, fragile settings (CAFS); children living in a conflict zone being more than twice as likely to suffer from malnourishment. Community health worker (CHW) models have been employed in CAFS to improve healthcare coverage and identify and treat illnesses. However, there lacks systematic evidence on the impact of CHW models in preventing, identifying, and managing child undernutrition in CAFS. We conducted this review to systematically evaluate evidence of CHW models in preventing, identifying, and managing undernutrition in children under the age of five in CAFS. METHODOLOGY: This review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses reporting standards. The search strategy was developed using the Population-Intervention-Comparisons-Outcomes-Setting framework as a guide. Searches were performed using Ovid online database search platform, searching the databases of Ovid MEDLINE(R), COCHRANE, Embase Classic, Embase, Econlit, Global Health, SCOPUS, and Social Policy and Practice. Peer-reviewed publications were eligible for inclusion if they evaluated an intervention using a CHW model that aims to prevent, identify, or manage some form of undernutrition in children under five in a CAFS. RESULTS: We identified 25 studies-spanning 10 countries-that were included in the systematic review. CHW models were implemented alongside a variety of interventions, including behaviour change communication, supplementary foods, nutrition counselling, and integrated community health programmes. Key barriers in implementing successful CHW models include disruption of programmes due to active conflict, states of emergency, militancy, or political unrest; weak links between the community-based interventions and public health system; weak health system capacity that impeded referral and follow-ups; and cost of care and care-seeking. Key facilitators include CHWs' connection to the community, close proximity of programmes to the community, supervision, and investment in high quality training and tools. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that CHW models may be effective, cost-effective, acceptable, feasible, and scalable in the prevention, identification, and management child undernutrition in CAFS. The study findings also confirmed a need for greater evidence in the field. These findings may inform policymaking, programme implementation, and design to strengthen best practices for CHW models addressing child undernutrition in CAFS.

The role of community health worker-based care in post-conflict settings: a systematic review.

Countries affected by conflict often experience the deterioration of health system infrastructure and weaken service delivery. Evidence suggests that healthcare services that leverage local community dynamics may ameliorate health system-related challenges; however, little is known about implementing these interventions in contexts where formal delivery of care is hampered subsequent to conflict. We reviewed the evidence on community health worker (CHW)-delivered healthcare in conflict-affected settings and synthesized reported information on the effectiveness of interventions and characteristics of care delivery. We conducted a systematic review of studies in OVID MedLine, Web of Science, Embase, Scopus, The Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINHAL) and Google Scholar databases. Included studies (1) described a context that is post-conflict, conflict-affected or impacted by war or crisis; (2) examined the delivery of healthcare by CHWs in the community; (3) reported a specific outcome connected to CHWs or community-based healthcare; (4) were available in English, Spanish or French and (5) were published between 1 January 2000 and 6 May 2021. We identified 1976 articles, of which 55 met the inclusion criteria. Nineteen countries were represented, and five categories of disease were assessed. Evidence suggests that CHW interventions not only may be effective but also efficient in circumventing the barriers associated with access to care in conflict-affected areas. CHWs may leverage their physical proximity and social connection to the community they serve to improve care by facilitating access to care, strengthening disease detection and improving adherence to care. Specifically, case management (e.g. integrated community case management) was documented to be effective in improving a wide range of health outcomes and should be considered as a strategy to reduce barrier to access in hard-to-reach areas. Furthermore, task-sharing strategies have been emphasized as a common mechanism for incorporating CHWs into health systems.