From Bolsonaro to Lula: The opportunity to rebuild universal healthcare in Brazil in the government transition.

This paper takes the government transition that took place between 2022 and 2023 in Brazil as a case study and aims to analyse how a cycle of radical right-wing populist government acted to dismantle Brazil's national health system foundations. It describes how governance was built based on political-clientelism and market-privatising interests and on the adoption of long-term fiscal austerity policies, whose results are public defunding and weakening and disorganisation of the country's national health system, with a significant worsening of health indicators and the capacity to respond to the population health needs. The lessons from recent experience in Brazil should serve as learning and a source of academic and political reflection, since there is an ongoing international movement and signs of rise of radical right-wing populist regimes in several countries, which endanger the Democratic Rule of Law, institutions, and social policies. It allows putting into perspective how political cycles of this nature can affect national universal health systems, including those that have experienced substantial progress towards universal access and universal health coverage. Keeping in mind the Brazilian experience, it was possible to observe the progressive structuring of a radical right-wing neo-populism and in the sanitarian.

Evaluating medical education regulation changes in Brazil: workforce impact.

BACKGROUND: Shortages and inequitable distribution of physicians is an obstacle to move towards Universal Health Coverage, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. In Brazil, expansion of medical school enrollment, curricula changes and recruitment programs were established to increase the number of physicians in underserved areas. This study seeks to analyze the impact of these measures in reduce inequities in access to medical education and physicians' distribution. METHODS: This is an observational study that analyzes changes in the number of undergraduate medical places and number of physicians per inhabitants in different areas in Brazil between the years 2010 and 2018. Data regarding the number of undergraduate medical places, number and the practice location of physicians were obtained in public databases. Municipalities with less than 20,000 inhabitants were considered underserved areas. Data regarding access to antenatal visits were analyzed as a proxy for impact in access to healthcare. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2018, 19,519 new medical undergraduate places were created which represents an increase of 120.2%. The increase in the number of physicians engaged in the workforce throughout the period was 113,702 physicians, 74,771 of these physicians in the Unified Health System. The greatest increase in the physicians per 1000 inhabitants ratio in the municipalities with the smallest population, the lowest Gross Domestic Product per capita and in those located in the states with the lowest concentration of physicians occurred in the 2013-2015 period. Increase in physician supply improved access to antenatal care. CONCLUSIONS: There was an expansion in the number of undergraduate medical places and medical workforce in all groups of municipalities assessed in Brazil. Medical undergraduate places expansion in the federal public schools was more efficient to reduce regional inequities in access to medical education than private sector expansion. The recruitment component of More Doctors for Brazil Program demonstrated effectiveness to increase the number of physicians in underserved areas. Our results indicate the importance of public policies to face inequities in access to medical education and physician shortages and the necessity of continuous assessment during the period of implementation, especially in the context of political and economic changes.

Assessing the performance of beneficiary targeting in Brazil's More Doctors Programme.

Many countries employ strategies that rest on the use of an explicitly defined set of criteria to identify underserved communities. Yet, we know relatively little about the performance of community-level targeting in large-scale health programmes. To address this gap, we examine the performance of community targeting in the More Doctors Programme (MDP). Our analysis covers all 5570 municipalities in the period between 2013 and 2017 using publicly available data. We first calculate the rate at which vulnerable municipalities enrolled in the MDP. Next, we consider two types of mistargeting: (1) proportion of vulnerable municipalities that did not have any MDP physicians (i.e. under-coverage municipalities) and (2) proportion of MDP enrolees that did not fit the vulnerability criteria (i.e. non-target municipalities). We found that almost 70% of vulnerable municipalities received at least one MDP physician between 2013 and 2017; whereas non-target municipalities constituted 33% of beneficiaries. Targeting performance improved over time. Non-target municipalities had the highest levels of socioeconomic development and greater physician availability. The poverty rate among under-coverage municipalities was almost six times that in non-target municipalities. Under-coverage municipalities had the lowest primary care physician availability. They were also smaller and more sparsely populated. We also found small differences in the political party alignments of mayors and the President between under-coverage and non-target municipalities. Our results suggest that using community-level targeting approaches in large-scale health programmes is a complex process. Programmes using these approaches may face substantial challenges in beneficiary targeting. Our results highlight that policymakers who consider using these approaches should carefully study various municipal characteristics that may influence the implementation process, including the level of socioeconomic development, health supply factors, population characteristics and political party alignments.

Impact of Brazil's More Doctors Program on hospitalizations for primary care sensitive cardiovascular conditions.

Globally, cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of disease burden and death. Timely and appropriate provision of primary care may lead to sizeable reductions in hospitalizations for a range of chronic and acute health conditions. In this paper, we study the impact of Brazil's More Doctors Program (MDP) on hospitalizations due to cerebrovascular disease and hypertension. We exploit the geographic variation in the uptake of the MPD and combine coarsened exact matching and difference-in-difference methods to construct valid counterfactual estimates. We use data from the Hospital Information System in Unified Health System, the MDP administrative records, the Brazilian Regulatory Agency, the Ministry of Health, and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, covering the years from 2009 to 2017. Our analysis resulted in estimated coefficients of -1.47 (95%CI: -4.04,1.10) for hospitalizations for cerebrovascular disease and -1.20 (95%CI: -5.50,3.11) for hypertension, suggesting an inverse relationship between the MDP and hospitalizations. For cerebrovascular disease, the estimated MDP coefficient was -0.50 (95%CI: -2.94,1.95) in the year of program introduction, -5.21 (95%CI: -9.43,-0.99) and -8.21 (95%CI: -13.68,-2.75) in its third and fourth year of implementation, respectively. Our results further suggest that the beneficial impact of MDP on hospitalizations due to cerebrovascular disease became discernable in urban municipalities starting from the fourth year of implementation. We found no evidence that the MDP led to reductions in hospitalizations due to hypertension. Our results highlight that increased investment in resources devoted to primary care led to improvements in hospitalizations for selected cardiovascular conditions. However, it took time for the beneficial effects of the MDP to become discernable and the Program did not guarantee declines in hospitalizations for all cardiovascular conditions, suggesting that further improvements may be needed to enhance the beneficial impact of the MDP on the level and distribution of population health in Brazil.