Physician workforce planning in an era of health care reform.

Workforce planning in an era of health care reform is a challenge as both delivery systems and patient demographics change. Current workforce projections are based on a future health care system that is either an identified "ideal" or a modified version of the existing system. The desire to plan for such an "ideal system," however, may threaten access to necessary services if it does not come to fruition or is based on theoretical rather than empirical data.Historically, workforce planning that concentrated only on an "ideal system" has been centered on incorrect assumptions. Two examples of such failures presented in the 1980s when the Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee recommended a decrease in the physician workforce on the basis of predetermined "necessary and appropriate" services and in the 1990s, when planners expected managed care and health maintenance organizations to completely overhaul the existing health care system. Neither accounted for human behavior, demographic changes, and actual demand for health care services, leaving the nation ill-prepared to care for an aging population with chronic disease.In this article, the authors argue that workforce planning should begin with the current system and make adjustments based on empirical data that accurately reflect current trends. Actual health care use patterns will become evident as systemic changes are realized-or not-over time. No single approach will solve the looming physician shortage, but the danger of planning only for an ideal system is being unprepared for the actual needs of the population.

Primary care teams: are we there yet? Implications for workforce planning.

Recent studies suggest that team-based primary care models could contribute to eliminating the predicted physician shortages. In this article, the authors explore existing team-based clinical care delivery models, comparing specialist and primary care teams, that include patient-centered medical homes and accountable care organizations. Next, the authors describe the barriers to adopting these models on a large scale, particularly the regulatory, financial, and cultural factors as well as scope of practice considerations for nonphysician providers. The authors' aim is not to evaluate the merits of team-based primary care models but, rather, to ascertain whether such models should be at the center of current physician workforce planning policies. The authors argue that although emerging evidence indicates that primary care teams can improve patient outcomes, few data exist to suggest that these models will drastically reduce the need for additional physicians or other providers. Thus, the authors conclude that additional research is needed to evaluate the ability of such models to alleviate provider deficits. And, while policy makers should work toward their ideal health care system, they also must expand the physician workforce to meet the growing demand for health care services in the existing one.

Building a health care workforce for the future: more physicians, professional reforms, and technological advances.

Traditionally, projections of US health care demand have been based upon a combination of existing trends in usage and idealized or expected delivery system changes. For example, 1990s health care demand projections were based upon an expectation that delivery models would move toward closed, tightly managed care networks and would greatly decrease the demand for subspecialty care. Today, however, a different equation is needed on which to base such projections. Realistic workforce planning must take into account the fact that expanded access to health care, a growing and aging population, increased comorbidity, and longer life expectancy will all increase the use of health care services per capita over the next few decades--at a time when the number of physicians per capita will begin to drop. New technologies and more aggressive screening may also change the equation. Strategies to address these increasing demands on the health system must include expanded physician training.