Family physicians' present and future role in caring for older patients.

The population of patients older than 65 years is projected to increase substantially in the coming years, particularly in rural areas. Family physicians are essential providers of geriatric care, especially in rural areas, but need payment reform to improve their capacity to meet the needs of older patients.

The Single Graduate Medical Education (GME) Accreditation System Will Change the Future of the Family Medicine Workforce.

BACKGROUND: Due to the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME)/American Osteopathic Association (AOA) single-accreditation model, the specialty of family medicine may see as many as 150 programs and 500 trainees in AOA-accredited programs seek ACGME accreditation. This analysis serves to better understand the composition of physicians completing family medicine residency training and their subsequent certification by the American Board of Family Medicine. METHODS: We identified residents who completed an ACGME-accredited or dual-accredited family medicine residency program between 2006 and 2016 and cross-tabulated the data by graduation year and by educational background (US Medical Graduate-MD [USMG-MD], USMG-DO, or International Medical Graduate-MD [IMG-MD]) to examine the cohort composition trend over time. RESULTS: The number and proportion of osteopaths completing family medicine residency training continues to rise concurrent with a decline in the number and proportion of IMGs. Take Rates for USMG-MDs and USMG-IMGs seem stable; however, the Take Rate for the USMG-DOs has generally been rising since 2011. CONCLUSIONS: There is a clear change in the composition of graduating trainees entering the family medicine workforce. As the transition to a single accreditation system for graduate medical education progresses, further shifts in the composition of this workforce should be expected.

Fewer family physicians are in solo practices.

Over the past 20 years there has been a statistically significant trend toward fewer family physicians identifying as being in solo practice. Further study to determine the reasons for this decline and its impact on access to care will be critical because rural areas are more dependent on solo practitioners.

The impending pediatric 'Surplus': causes, implications, and alternatives.

The supply of pediatricians is increasing much more rapidly than the number of children in the United States. Between 1978 and 1990, the number of pediatricians will grow from approximately 26,000 to between 45,000 and 50,000, while the number of children will remain relatively constant. Although published standards vary widely, it appears certain that the forthcoming supply of pediatricians and family physicians will greatly exceed even the most generous estimates of the need for child health physicians. The recent work of the Graduate Medical Educational National Advisory Committee (GMENAC) has focused attention on the problem of physician oversupply. That panel estimates that by 1990 more than one of every eight pediatricians will be unnecessary and has recommended that even larger surpluses be allowed to develop. Determining whether the future supply will constitute a surplus raises issues for pediatrics that include not only the numbers, but also the proper balance of generalists, the role of family physicians and nurse practitioners, and trends in geographic preferences. Facing these issues will require a thorough analysis of child health needs to provide an adequate basis for making decisions about the number and appropriate training of child health care practitioners in the future.

A physician workforce for the 21st century.

Medicine is entering an unprecedented era of provider abundance, including both physician and nonphysician providers. Over the next several decades, the projected number of primary care physicians will be more than adequate to meet national needs, although there is no assurance that any number of physicians will create an equitable distribution. At the same time, a growing surplus of specialists is projected. A balanced abundance in both primary care and specialty medicine will continue if approximately 33% of first-year residents ultimately practice primary care and 67% become specialists. In contrast, a shift to 50:50, as has been proposed by the Committee on Graduate Medical Education and others, will lead to a superabundance in primary care and a potential deficiency in specialty medicine later in the 21st century. Under either scenario, maintaining balance will be aided by those physicians with sufficient generalist skills to enable them to practice at the interface of primary care and specialty medicine, the domain of "middle care." The nation will be well served by educational policy that imparts such generalist expertise to medical students and that creates a workforce of highly skilled physicians capable of caring for patients in the technologically advanced clinical environment of the future.

The maldistribution of general practitioners in England and Wales: 1974-2003.

BACKGROUND: The geographical distribution of general practitioners (GPs) is a persistent policy concern within the National Health Service. Maldistribution across family health service authorities in England and Wales fell between 1974 and the mid-1980s but then remained, at best, constant until the mid-1990s. AIM: To estimate levels of maldistribution over the period 1994-2003 and to examine the long-term trend in maldistribution from 1974-2003. DESIGN: Annual snapshots from the GP census. SETTING: One hundred 2001 'frozen' health authorities in England and Wales for 1994-2003 and 98 family health service authorities for 1974-1995. METHOD: Ratios of GPs to raw and need-adjusted populations were calculated for each health authority for each year using four methods of need adjustment: age-related capitation payments, national age- and sex-specific consultation rates, national age- and sex-specific limiting long-term illness rates, and health authority-specific mortality. Three summary measures of maldistribution across health authorities in the GP to population ratio--the decile ratio, the Gini coefficient, and the Atkinson index--were calculated for each year. RESULTS: Maldistribution of GPs as measured by the Gini coefficient and Atkinson index increased from the mid-1980s to 2003, but the decile ratio showed little change over the entire 1974-2003 period. Unrestricted GP principals and equivalents were more equitably distributed than other types of GP. CONCLUSION: The 20% increase in the number of unrestricted GPs between 1985 and 2003 did not lead to a more equal distribution.

Entry of US medical school graduates into family practice residencies: 2002-2003 and 3-year summary.

This is the 22nd report prepared by the American Academy of Family Physicians (AAFP) on the percentage of each US medical school's graduates entering family practice residency programs. Approximately 10.3% of the 15,810 graduates of US medical schools between July 2001 and June 2002 were first-year family practice residents in 2002, compared with 10.9% in 2001 and 12.8% in 2000. Medical school graduates from publicly funded medical schools were more likely to be first-year family practice residents in October 2002 than were residents from privately funded schools, 12.3% compared with 7.3%. The Mountain and the West North Central regions reported the highest percentage of medical school graduates who were first-year residents in family practice programs in October 2002 at 16.3% and 15.9%, respectively; the Middle Atlantic and New England regions reported the lowest percentages at 6.1% and 5.6%, respectively. Nearly half of the medical school graduates (48.6%) entering a family practice residency program as first-year residents in October 2002 entered a program in the same state where they graduated from medical school. The percentages for each medical school have varied substantially from year to year since the AAFP began reporting this information. This article reports the average percentage for each medical school for the last 3 years. Also reported are the number and percentage of graduates from colleges of osteopathic medicine who entered Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education-accredited family practice residency programs, based on estimates provided by the American Association of Colleges of Osteopathic Medicine.

Matching physician supply and requirements: testing policy recommendations.

Managed care has been growing and likely will increase market share. This movement will require fundamental alterations in the number and specialty distribution of physicians. Under current production, future supply does not appear well-matched with requirements. Although the adequacy of generalist supply is of concern, the oversupply of specialists is the overriding problem. Neither reducing the number of first-year residents nor increasing the generalist output alone would bring both generalist and specialist supply within requirement ranges. Combining an increase in generalist production to 50% with a reduction in first-year residents to 110% of the number of U.S. medical graduates would minimize the projected specialty surplus while maintaining generalist supply within the requirement range.

Quality assurance in the training of primary health care doctors and specialists.

Training of doctors is expensive as it requires at least six years of supervision while on the job plus sponsorship for courses, examination and even overseas training. Quality assurance of training is essential to ensure maximum throughput of the required number of specialist doctors for national needs. First, there is competition for training posts at basic (three years) and advanced (three years) levels. Basic training prepares doctors to sit and pass the relevant postgraduate examinations. Fifty percent of each cohort of doctors are selected as Basic Trainees but 40% finally complete Advanced Training. Second, trainees complete a training programme under supervision and record their clinical and learning experience in log books which are checked and certified by appointed supervisors who are consultants in government and restructured hospitals or institutions. Third, supervisor reports are submitted six monthly to the respective bodies: Academy of Medicine, School of Postgraduate Medical Studies or the Ministry of Health and Training Committees which vet these with the aim to continue the training or to terminate the training. Fourth, Parts I and II of relevant examinations must be passed within stipulated time frames. By these measures, there is quality assurance in the postgraduate training of our doctors.