Improving the planning of the GP workforce in Australia: a simulation model incorporating work transitions, health need and service usage.

BACKGROUND: In Australia, the approach to health workforce planning has been supply-led and resource-driven rather than need-based. The result has been cycles of shortages and oversupply. These approaches have tended to use age and sex projections as a measure of need or demand for health care. Less attention has been given to more complex aspects of the population, such as the increasing proportion of the ageing population and increasing levels of chronic diseases or changes in the mix of health care providers or their productivity levels. These are difficult measures to get right and so are often avoided. This study aims to develop a simulation model for planning the general practice workforce in South Australia that incorporates work transitions, health need and service usage. METHODS: A simulation model was developed with two sub-models--a supply sub-model and a need sub-model. The supply sub-model comprised three components--training, supply and productivity--and the need sub-model described population size, health needs, service utilisation rates and productivity. A state transition cohort model is used to estimate the future supply of GPs, accounting for entries and exits from the workforce and changes in location and work status. In estimating the required number of GPs, the model used incidence and prevalence data, combined with age, gender and condition-specific utilisation rates. The model was run under alternative assumptions reflecting potential changes in need and utilisation rates over time. RESULTS: The supply sub-model estimated the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) GP stock in SA for the period 2004-2011 and was similar to the observed data, although it had a tendency to overestimate the GP stock. The three scenarios presented for the demand sub-model resulted in different outcomes for the estimated required number of GPs. For scenario one, where utilisation rates in 2003 were assumed optimal, the model predicted fewer FTE GPs were required than was observed. In scenario 2, where utilisation rates in 2013 were assumed optimal, the model matched observed data, and in scenario 3, which assumed increasing age- and gender-specific needs over time, the model predicted more FTE GPs were required than was observed. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a robust methodology for determining supply and demand for one professional group at a state level. The supply sub-model was fitted to accurately represent workforce behaviours. In terms of demand, the scenario analysis showed variation in the estimations under different assumptions that demonstrates the value of monitoring population-based need over time. In the meantime, expert opinion might identify the most relevant scenario to be used in projecting workforce requirements.

National community health worker programs: how can they be strengthened?

This article is based on a collaborative research study of policy and practice in national community health worker (CHW) programs in developing countries. The study involved a review of the relevant literature, case studies in Botswana, Colombia and Sri Lanka, and an international workshop where the future of such programs was discussed. The findings of this research are discussed under four headings: unrealistic expectations, poor initial planning, problems of sustainability, and the difficulties of maintaining quality. It is clear that existing national community health worker programs have suffered from conceptual and implementation problems. However, given the interest and political will, governments can address these problems by adopting more flexible approaches within their CHW programs, by planning for them within the context of all health sector activities rather than as a separate activity, and by immediately addressing weaknesses in task allocation, training and supervision. CHWs represent an important health resource, whose potential in extending coverage and providing a reasonable level of care to otherwise underserved populations must be fully tapped.

PIP: A collaborative research study of policy and practice in large, national community health worker (CHW) programs in developing countries was conducted. The report was based on a review of the literature, case studies in Botswana, Colombia and Sri Lanka, and an international workshop on the future of CHW programs. The objective of the study was to reexamine the implementation of national CHW programs, looking at policy, planning and management implications to suggest improvements. The chief findings were poor initial planning, unrealistic expectations of the workers, difficulties in maintaining quality and problems of sustainability. National CHW programs have suffered from conceptual and implementation problems. With political will, however, governments can adopt more flexible approaches by planning CHW programs within the context of overall health sector activities, rather than as a separate activity. Weaknesses in training, task allocation and supervision need to addressed immediately. CHWs represent an important health resource whose potential in providing and extending a reasonable level of health care to undeserved populations must be fully tapped.

Health work force planning in the 90s, Part II: Enough in the right place at the right time?

The focus of this discussion has been on achieving a distribution of health care professionals that meets the objective of making health services available to the total population. The need for a systematic approach to planning, not only for the health care work force, but for the system in general, has been recognized as the highest priority for the health care systems of industrialized countries for over a decade. Overall, the goal of health care work force planning the world over is "to provide the right type of education and training for the right number and type of people needed to render effectively and safely the right types of service when and where required by the population." What is needed is a readiness to evaluate existing service delivery models, to retain those found to be effective and efficient, and to re-direct resources from outdated or ineffective strategies into new approaches found to better meet this goal. We need to envision the health care work force as a whole; work toward making it as efficient as possible, and thereby maintain our national commitment to universal health care.