2015 American College of Rheumatology Workforce Study: The Role of Graduate Medical Education in Adult Rheumatology.

OBJECTIVE: Graduate medical education (GME), through fellowship training, plays a critical role in preparing new rheumatologists for our workforce and is an essential component when addressing the gap of excess demand for adult rheumatology care. This study was undertaken to assess the demographic characteristics and employment trends of new entrants entering the rheumatology workforce and the impact this will have on the supply of rheumatologits over the next 15 years. METHODS: Primary and secondary data sources were used to develop an integrated workforce model. Factors specific to new graduates entering the workforce included available and filled fellowship positions, gender shifts, planned work schedules (part-time or full-time), practice settings (academic or non-academic, private practice), and number of international medical graduates (IMGs) anticipating US practice. RESULTS: In 2015, there were 113 adult rheumatology programs, with 431 of 468 available positions filled. Using the 215 actual positions available annually in fellowship programs as a starting point, after all factors were applied, the projected clinical full-time equivalent number entering the workforce each year was 107; this number was affected significantly by gender and generational trends. In addition, 17% of IMGs self-identified their plan to practice outside the US. Confounding predictions included a large proportion of current rheumatologists planning retirement with substantially reduced patient loads by 2030. CONCLUSION: The current US adult rheumatology workforce is in jeopardy of accelerated decline at a time when demands on the workforce face tremendous growth. The current GME training structure cannot support the increased demand. Potential strategies to address this gap include innovative mechanisms for GME funding to increase fellowship training positions, incentives for pursuing rheumatology training (e.g., loan repayment programs), and novel means for recruitment of care to underserved areas of the US.

2015 American College of Rheumatology Workforce Study: Supply and Demand Projections of Adult Rheumatology Workforce, 2015-2030.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the character and composition of the 2015 US adult rheumatology workforce, evaluate workforce trends, and project supply and demand for clinical rheumatology care for 2015-2030. METHODS: The 2015 Workforce Study of Rheumatology Specialists in the US used primary and secondary data sources to estimate the baseline adult rheumatology workforce and determine demographic and geographic factors relevant to workforce modeling. Supply and demand was projected through 2030, utilizing data-driven estimations regarding the proportion and clinical full-time equivalent (FTE) of academic versus nonacademic practitioners. RESULTS: The 2015 adult workforce (physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants) was estimated to be 6,013 providers (5,415 clinical FTE). At baseline, the estimated demand exceeded the supply of clinical FTE by 700 (12.9%). By 2030, the supply of rheumatology clinical providers is projected to fall to 4,882 providers, or 4,051 clinical FTE (a 25.2% decrease in supply from 2015 baseline levels). Demand in 2030 is projected to exceed supply by 4,133 clinical FTE (102%). CONCLUSION: The adult rheumatology workforce projections reflect a major demographic and geographic shift that will significantly impact the supply of the future workforce by 2030. These shifts include baby-boomer retirements, a millennial predominance, and an increase of female and part-time providers, in parallel with an increased demand for adult rheumatology care due to the growing and aging US population. Regional and innovative strategies will be necessary to manage access to care and reduce barriers to care for rheumatology patients.