Structural changes in the receiving country and future labor migration--the case of Kuwait.

PIP: This article describes changes in the volume, age and sex composition, retention, productivity, types of occupation, and economic sector of the labor force in Kuwait. The focus is on the structural changes in the indigenous labor force. Data were obtained from censuses and labor force surveys during 1965-93. Policies after the 1990 invasion pertained primarily to security of public employment sector among natives. Over 98% of private sector employment is among non-Kuwaitis. Government programs support high fertility. Female illiteracy has declined, and the proportion of women with a higher education has increased. Natives comprised 20.4% of the total labor force in 1993. About 90% of native males work in the public sector. 45% of total male employment is in the production sector. Around 50% of non-Kuwaiti males have been employed in production work over the decades. Over 90% of Kuwaiti females in 1993 worked in professional or clerical work. Over 50% of total female labor force participation is in the service sector. Concentration in the public sector increased for Kuwaitis and declined for non-Kuwaitis. Labor force participation declined with increasing age. Retirement benefits encouraged early retirement. The private sector is experiencing the departure of long-term migrants and more rapid turnover of labor. Hours of work are longer in the private sector. Kuwait is still dependent on foreign workers in the production and service industries. It is likely that native male workers will replace foreign workers in professional work and administrative/clerical work. Policies that will assure future reliance on imported labor include the assurance of government jobs for Kuwaitis, retirement rules, and the profitability of the trade in labor.^ieng

Aging of the population in Japan and its implications to the other Asian countries.

"The speed at which Japan's population is aging is mainly a result of its rapid economic development, which is common to many other East Asian countries. Two aspects of the aging of the population are an increasing share of the elderly and a declining labor force. The larger the number of elderly, the more the transfer of income between generations, and the fiscal burden rises. The shrinking workforce will lower the economic growth directly, and indirectly through the falling saving ratio. However, the negative impacts from aging can largely be offset by stimulating participation of older persons in the labor force."

[Demographic dynamics, migrants from bordering countries and economic activity in Buenos Aires]. / Dinamica demografica, migracion limitrofe y actividad economica en Buenos Aires.

PIP: The growth and changes--by age, sex, and place of birth--in the structure of the total population of the Buenos Aires metropolitan area and of the subpopulation over 15 years of age and economically active are analyzed for the decade of the 1980s. Study of the economic participation of migrants and its possible influence on levels of employment or unemployment should be carried out within the framework of changes in the population's structure and economic participation. The 1981 and 1991 censuses and the Permanent Survey of Households were the sources of data. Immigration to Argentina has declined considerably in recent years, but it is still a factor in the population growth of metropolitan Buenos Aires. Between the 1981 and 1991 censuses, the population aged 15 and over grew by 10.9/1000, or a total of 827,806 people. Migrants from bordering countries increased in number (by 85,109, or 10.3%) and in proportion to the total population (from 3.9% to 4.6%). Migrant women increased at the highest rate (30.1/1000). The greatest growth occurred among men aged 40 and over and among women aged 35 and over. The growth of the economically active population over age 15 for different groups of national origin, sex, and age showed much greater heterogeneity. In 1991, women from bordering countries represented 3.8% of all women in metropolitan Buenos Aires but 5.7% of the total economically active female population and nearly 7% of the economically active female population aged 35 and over. Women from neighboring countries were responsible for 10.3% of the growth in the economically active female population aged 30-34 and 40-44 between 1981 and 1991. The absolute and relative increases in migrants from neighboring countries and their greater economic participation tend to increase the general level of economic activity.^ieng

[The working population in Switzerland from 1960 to 1980]. / La population active en Suisse de 1960 a 1980

PIP: Labor force developments in Switzerland between 1960 and 1980 are described. Consideration is given to demographic changes, sectoral changes, and changes in levels of economic activity. Future prospects up to the year 2000 are also assessed.^ieng

[Demographic policy in the light of the resolutions of the Twenty-sixth Congress of the Communist Party]. / Demograficheskaya politika v svete reshenii XXVI s"ezda KPSS

PIP: The USSR is moving from extensive to intensive type of population reproduction, not because of any governmental measures but as a reaction to objective circumstances. At present there is a reduction in the population cohort of working age. This has an adverse effect on production. And the number of the elderly is increasing; we must involve them more in the production process, in monitoring the service sphere, for instance. The infant mortality rate has declined sharply in the USSR, especially since World War II. The birthrate has also dropped, but it is still higher than in the US, France, or West Germany. Some authorities think that this (the ZPG) is a good idea, but this author thinks it is a bad idea, meaning a drop in society's productive forces. We need an active demographic policy, meaning one which ensures optimal reproduction of the population with an improvement in its health, culture, and living standard. The policy must be differentiated, as conditions vary from one part of the country to another. An example is the 1981 decree on assistance to families with children which provides for payments of 35-50 rubles/month to mothers who must stay home to look after children. The number of children per family to ensure reproduction must be 2.6 on the average. In the Central Asian republics family sizes of 4-5 children are anticipated, but in the RSFSR, Ukraine, Belorussia, and the Baltic republics the anticipated size of families is rather low. Measures must be taken to alter this by providing assistance to families with children.^ieng

[A brief discussion on tendency and characteristics of transfer of rural labor in the new stage].

PIP: Recent trends in the rural labor force in China are analyzed using official data for Hangzhou city. The major change identified and explored is the switch from agriculture to industry.^ieng

[Evolution of the economically active population in the Czechoslovak Socialist Republic, 1961-1980]. / K vyvoji ekonomicke aktivity obyvatelstva CSSR v obdobi 1961-1980.

PIP: Changes in the economic activity of men and women in Czechoslovakia for the years 1961-1980 are analyzed. Changes in the age and sex structure of the labor force during this period are considered. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)^ieng

[Socioeconomic characteristics of the labor force in Brazil (1976-1981)]. / Caracteristicas socio-economicas da forca de trabalho no Brasil (1976-1981).

"This paper studies the main changes in the Brazilian labor force from 1976 to 1981. Several aspects concerning... Brazilian labor market dynamics, such as activity levels, employment, income distribution and social security, are examined. The paper takes into account the short-run effects of...economic policy on the Brazilian labor force." (summary in ENG)

[On the relationship between migration and unemployment]. / Om sammenhengen mellom flytting og arbeidsloshet

PIP: The relationship between internal migration and labor market trends is analyzed for Norwegian counties and labor exchange districts. The main motives for migration and the major reasons for unemployment are discussed. The expected negative correlation between high unemployment and low or negative net migration occurs, but it is stronger at the county than at the labor exchange level. When change in unemployment between 1974 and 1978 is compared with change in net migration there is no clear correlation.^ieng

[[Changes in the labor force in Taiwan: 1979-1990]].

"The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of age composition on labor force participation rate as well as the change in age-specific labor force participation rate for both males and females in Taiwan.... Data [are] obtained from the Taiwan Manpower Utilization Survey from 1979 to 1990. Results from the standardization analyses indicated that the age composition change from 1979 to 1990 has a leveling effect on the labor force participation rate (LFPR) for both males and females. During the period of time, rate of male labor force participation has...decreased while female labor force participation rate has...increased and then [leveled] off." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Demographic waves and labor resources.

PIP: The author examines the causes, nature, and socioeconomic consequences of medium-term fluctuations in the sizes of age groups in the Soviet Union, with particular attention to the impact on the dynamics of the nation's labor resources. Developments since World War I are outlined, and projections through the end of the twentieth century are summarized. Changes over time in the age distribution of a small population in a Kama River community are used as an example.^ieng

Rural labour force transition and patterns of urbanization in China.

PIP: A number of publications discuss China's population migration from rural to urban areas. In this paper, Dong Hui reviews the literature and summarizes the discussions on rural labor force transition and patterns of urbanization in China. The literature shows that a rural surplus labor force has existed in China since the 1950s. This surplus labor force has abandoned agriculture and moved to urban areas, a transition that will continue as economic development advances. Smaller cities and towns act as reservoirs in absorbing large rural surplus labor population and will regulate the migration of people who want to move to medium-sized and large cities. Recent Chinese literature concentrates only on explaining this transition and urbanization. ALthough many study these aspects theoretically, few study the effects of indirect factors, such as economic policies, education, labor skill training, the consequences of labor migration in urban and rural areas, and the consequences of the development of small cities and towns. Study of the rural labor force transition and the resulting urbanization is just beginning and is expected to become more thorough, systematic, and theoretical.^ieng

Links between urbanization and sectoral shifts in employment in Java.

PIP: The relationship between urbanization and changes in the employment structure in Indonesia is analyzed. In particular, the author examines whether changes in the occupational structure in rural areas can have any effect in slowing the general shift in economic emphasis to urban areas, whether nonagricultural economic activities can be developed in rural areas, and what policies are needed to assist the transformation of the rural employment sector. Data are primarily from Indonesian censuses, including the 1980 census.^ieng

Changing patterns of migration in Kuwait.

PIP: The economic boom and accelerated development programs in Kuwait in recent years have created a labor market that native Kuwaitis have been unable to fill, with the result that a majority of jobs have been filled by non-nationals from other countries. The paper reveals that in 1985 migrants constituted over 60% of the total population and more than 80% of the labor force. Quinquennial censuses provide the main source for this in-depth study on changing migration patterns in Kuwait from 1957-1985.^ieng

[The decline and renewal of the industrial labor force: a study of age distributions]. / Declin et renouvellement de la main-d'oeuvre industrielle: une lecture des structures d'age.

PIP: Data from the 1975, 1982, and 1990 French censuses and the Permanent Demographic Sample were used to analyze the accommodations made in different sectors of industry to age-related difficulties in job performance. The aging of the population, the greater economic activity of middle-aged women, and changes in the conditions and organization of work may have reduced the feasibility of modes of human resources administration based on reassignment of older workers or those with seniority to less physically demanding jobs. The number of workers in the principal industrial sectors declined considerably between 1975 and 1990. The proportion of young workers declined in almost all industrial sectors except food industries. Reductions through retirement had the effect of concentrating workers in the intermediate age cohorts. Middle-aged workers are increasingly confronted by working conditions that previously affected primarily younger workers. Data from the Permanent Demographic Sample, although not directly comparable to the census data, indicate that worker turnover within sectors was considerable throughout the period. Over 40% of workers in a given sector in 1975 were no longer working in that sector in 1982, and half to two-thirds of workers in a sector in 1982 were no longer there in 1990. The sectors with the highest rates of departure were generally those with the largest declines in number of workers. It may become necessary in the future to adjust to an older work force through workplace modifications to compensate for their physical deficiencies rather than by adjusting the age structure.^ieng

Some demographic aspects of labour force in Sharkia governorate, Egypt (1960-1976).

PIP: This paper presents the main characteristics of the labor force in Sharkia, a nonurban governorate in Lower Egypt, and relates these features to the demographic situation in the area. The data were derived largely from the 1960 and 1967 Censuses. The population growth rate in Sharkia Governorate was lower than that of the national population in the 1927-60 period and higher during the 1960-76 period. Sharkia is characterized by a high proportion of children and a low proportion of old people, reflecting its relatively high level of fertility. The population of working age (15-64 years) constituted 55% of Sharkia's population in 1976. The size of the labor force grew from 550,000 in 1960 to 748,000 in 1976, for an average annual rate of growth of 2.2%. Changes in population size accounted for 44% of this growth, whereas changes in the percentage of economically active persons in the population accounted for only 3.2%. The crude activity rate is higher in rural than urban areas, although female rates are higher in urban areas. An important consequence of the overall low economic activity rate, resulting from the youthful age structure and low female activity rates, is a heavy load of dependency. In 1976, the vast majority of workers (60%) were employed in the agricultural sector, although this statistic was only 17% in urban areas. The pattern for female workers is characterized by markedly higher proportions of white collar occupations (35% in 1976). Employees represented over half the labor force in 1976. The share of own-account and unpaid family workers stood at 19% and 9%, respectively, reflecting the declining significance of family enterprises. The unemployment rate in Sharkia was 7.2% in 1976 and reflected a sharp increase in the number of young people seeking their 1st job. Overall, the trends in the labor force in Sharkia are typical of those that normally accompany the process of economic development.^ieng

[The evolution of employment in Mexico: 1895-1980]. / Evolucion del empleo en Mexico: 1895-1980.

PIP: Employment figures from the Mexican national census are the basis for this analysis of employment changes in Mexico between 1895-1980. The work identifies longterm trends in the volume and composition of employment and distinguishes 3 main periods in the evolution of employment. The first period, from 1895-1930, marked the end of a stage of development lasting until about 1907 in which sufficient internal stability was achieved to support Mexico's entrance into the world market. Export of agricultural products and metals was the principal focus of economic growth. Construction of roads and railroads was a central element of progress. But economic and social problems manifested in regional disparities, concentration of wealth, conflicts between economic sectors, low pay for agricultural workers, and fierce social and political control characterized the period and culminated in the Mexican Revolution. After the first decade of the 20th century the ability of the economy to absorb new workers began to decline, and the falling of crude activity rates was not reversed until the 1940s. During the 1920s, total employment increased less than 6%, reflecting a net increase of 403,000 male workers and a decrease of 110,000 female workers. The second major period of employment from 1930-1970 saw the change from an economy based on export of primary products to one based on manufacturing for the internal market. There were 2 subperiods, a stage of transition from 1930-50, the economy registered marked fluctuations, but by the 1940s the consolidation of state power and important reforms permitting expansion of the internal market were factors in an accelerated growth of employment relative to the preceding intercensal period. Despite considerable increases in agricultural employment, the relative share of the agricultural sector in total employment was beginning a decline. Employment registered the highest growth rates of the century in the 1940s and exceeded population growth. The increased employment was explained by accelerated growth and accumulation in manufacturing along with increases in commerce, services, construction, and agriculture. From 1950-70, industrial development was consolidated, and there was a generalized expansion in employment in manufacturing as well as in the secondary and tertiary sectors. The economy was less able to absorb new labor, primarily because the agricultural sector had reached the limits of expansion in both the commercial and peasant sector by 1965, at just the time that population growth was most rapid. During the 1970s, manufacturing employment grew less rapidly because of modernization, almost exclusive orientation to the internal market which limited expansion, and scarcity of funds for importing capital goods. A new model of growth will be needed if Mexico is to escape its present stagnation, and a significant share of economic activity will need to be oriented to export. Until this process is consolidated, the national economy is unlikely to show signs of sustained recuperation.^ieng