Socioeconomic and Demographic Risk Factors for SARS-CoV-2 Seropositivity Among Healthcare Workers in a UK Hospital: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: To protect healthcare workers (HCWs) from the consequences of disease due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), it is necessary to understand the risk factors that drive exposure and infection within hospitals. Insufficient consideration of key socioeconomic variables is a limitation of existing studies that can lead to bias and residual confounding of proposed risk factors for infection. METHODS: The Co-STARs study prospectively enrolled 3679 HCWs between April 2020 and September 2020. We used multivariate logistic regression to comprehensively characterize the demographic, occupational, socioeconomic, and environmental risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity. RESULTS: After adjusting for key confounders, relative household overcrowding (odds ratio [OR], 1.4 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.1-1.9]; P = .006), Black, Black British, Caribbean, or African ethnicity (OR, 1.7 [95% CI, 1.2-2.3]; P = .003), increasing age (ages 50-60 years: OR, 1.8 [95% CI, 1.3-2.4]; P < .001), lack of access to sick pay (OR, 1.8 [95% CI, 1.3-2.4]; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic and demographic factors outside the hospital were the main drivers of infection and exposure to SARS-CoV-2 during the first wave of the pandemic in an urban pediatric referral hospital. Overcrowding and out-of-hospital SARS-CoV-2 contact are less amenable to intervention. However, lack of access to sick pay among externally contracted staff is more easily rectifiable. Our findings suggest that providing easier access to sick pay would lead to a decrease in SARS-CoV-2 transmission and potentially that of other infectious diseases in hospital settings. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT04380896.

Ophthalmology workforce over a decade in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: demographics, distribution, and future challenges.

BACKGROUND: The ophthalmology workforce is an integral component of any health care system. However, the demand for eye care has imposed a heavy burden on this system. Hence, this study aimed to estimate the trends, demographic characteristics, distribution, and variation between Saudi and non-Saudi ophthalmologists and the future challenges of the ophthalmology workforce in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). METHODS: This study was conducted in the KSA and included ophthalmologists practicing from 2010 to 2023. From the Saudi Commission for Health Specialties, we obtained the number, gender, nationality, and rank of ophthalmologists. The geographic distribution of ophthalmologists in the KSA was obtained from the Ministry of Health Statistical Yearbook 2021. RESULTS: As of January 2023, the KSA had a total of 2608 registered ophthalmologists, with approximately 81.06 ophthalmologists per 1,000,000 people. Only 38% of all ophthalmologists in the country were Saudis. The percentage of Saudi female graduates increased from 13.3% to 37.2% over 12 years [Sen's estimator of slope for median increase per year = 1.33 (95% CI 1.22-1.57) graduates; trend test P < 0.001). Additionally, we found that the geographic distribution of ophthalmologists varied (test for homogeneity of rates, P < 0.0001), with the larger regions having a higher concentration of ophthalmologists than the smaller regions (75.6 in Riyadh versus 42.8 in Jazan per 1,000,000 people). However, the World Health Organization's target for the ophthalmologist-to-population ratio has been achieved in all 13 health regions of KSA. CONCLUSION: The recommended ophthalmologist-to-population ratio has been achieved in the KSA, and the number of Saudi ophthalmologists has almost doubled over the past 8 years. However, the majority of ophthalmologists are still non-Saudi, as Saudi ophthalmologists constitute approximately one-third of the ophthalmology workforce in the KSA. The geographical distribution of ophthalmologists varies, which might affect access to care in peripheral regions. In response to the growing demand for eye care in the KSA, several more effective measures might need to be considered.

Planning the future of oral health care workforce: Moving beyond demographic change.

The adoption of Universal Health Coverage for oral health care will not be sufficient to ensure that health care resources are accessible in accordance with needs for care. Government intervention in planning and allocating resources will be required to replace traditional market forces if market failure is not to be replaced by government failure. In this paper we explore the limitations of current 'fixed in time' approaches to planning the oral health care workforce and present an enhanced dynamic model for workforce planning that responds directly to changes in population, evidence-based best practice and new models of care.

Relationship between individual and country-level socio-economic background, USMLE step scores, and demographics of international medical graduates and residency match results.

PURPOSE: Twenty five percent of practicing physicians in the US are International Medical Graduates (IMGs) - physicians who completed their medical school training outside of the United States and Canada. There are multiple studies demonstrating higher socio-economic background is associated with medical school matriculation in the US. However, despite a substantial prevalence of IMGs in the American healthcare system, studies of the association between demographics, socio-economic background, and securing a residency position in the match are lacking. METHODS: We created a survey with questions on residency match-related data and information on personal socio-economic background. An invitation to participate in the study was sent to all IMGs that applied to the included residency programs after the conclusion of the 2022 residency match. We used multivariable logistic regression to compare survey responses to the odds of securing a residency match. RESULTS: The total number of survey respondents was 744 (response rate 15.1%). We found that younger age, higher United States Medical License Examination (USMLE) scores, higher-income country of origin (including the United States), fewer match attempts, applying to fewer specialties, having parents with college degree or higher, and coming from higher-than-average or lower-than-average family income were independently associated with increased odds of matching. Gender, personal income, and visa status did not demonstrate significant associations with residency match. CONCLUSIONS: Residency match is a significant expense for IMGs, especially for those from lower-income countries. International applicants from higher socio-economic backgrounds might have advantages in securing medical residency positions in the United States when controlling for other variables.

Academic and Demographic Characteristics of Pediatric Orthopaedic Division Chiefs in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: Division Chiefs (DCs) and department leadership play an integral role within the service. The goal of this study is to assess the demographics and scholarly work of the leadership in pediatric orthopaedics services across the United States and comment on the role of diversity within leadership positions. METHODS: Academic medical centers and pediatric hospitals were identified using the Electronic Residency Application Service website, the Pediatric Orthopaedic Society of North America website, and the Children's Hospital Association website. Leadership was identified using the hospitals' respective websites where data such as sex, race/ethnicity, fellowship institution, time since graduating fellowship, and academic rank were collected. Scopus database was used to determine h-indices and PubMed was used to determine the number of publications. RESULTS: Of 196 academic centers and 223 pediatric hospitals identified, 98 had a designated DC of the pediatric orthopaedics division. The majority of the DCs were male (85.7%), and leadership positions at hospitals with academic affiliations had a higher proportion of female DCs than nonacademic centers ( P =0.0317). DCs were mostly white (83.7%), followed by Asian (12.2%), and African American (2.0%). The average time since fellowship was 21.1 years and the average h-index was 15.7. The average age of the DCs was 56.8 years old. Of those in academic settings, 48.5% held the rank of professor. The fellowship programs that trained the most DCs were Boston Children's Hospital (16.3%) and Texas Scottish Rite for Children (14.3%). DISCUSSION: There is a paucity of available research on leadership characteristics in pediatric orthopaedic surgery. While progress has been made, there is still a lack of diversity that exists among leadership in pediatric orthopaedics, both within the academic setting as well as the private sector. The position of DC is held predominately by white males with a rank of either professor or no academic association. Intentional efforts are needed to continue to increase diversity in leadership positions within pediatric orthopaedic programs in the United States. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: IV.

Under- or overexpansion of education? Trends in qualification mismatch in the United Kingdom and Germany, 1984-2017.

Prominent theoretical positions in sociology and labor economics disagree whether educational expansion has outstripped the demand for qualified labor (overexpansion), or whether economies face a skill shortage despite increases in education (underexpansion). Focusing on the United Kingdom and West Germany, two countries with dissimilar skill formation institutions, patterns of expansion, and labor markets, this paper asks to what degree expansion of education has been absorbed. I point out shortcomings of wage-centered analyses and develop an approach that focuses on trends in self-assessed over- and underqualification. Using repeated surveys among workers and official labor market statistics, I estimate regression models that link the cohort-level expansion of education to the cohort-level prevalence of mismatch. Results suggest overexpansion in the United Kingdom, with overqualification increasing and underqualification decreasing over historical times and cohorts. West Germany, on the other hand, shows signs of underexpansion. While dominant theoretical accounts focus on the under-/overexpansion of tertiary education, my results show that mismatch-dynamics in both contexts are strongest for workers without university degrees.

A Comparison of Applicant and Resident Physician Demographics Among Surgical Subspecialties From 2009 to 2019: Trends in Gender and Underrepresented Minorities in Medicine.

BACKGROUND: The purposes of this study were to compare applicant statistics to resident physician demographics among several surgical subspecialties (SSSs), to identify trends of gender and underrepresented minorities in medicine (UIM), and to evaluate current diversity among these specialties. METHODS: Graduate medical education reports from 2009 to 2019 were queried to determine trends among programs. Further identification of gender and UIM statistics was obtained in 4 several SSSs: integrated plastic surgery, orthopedic surgery (OS), otolaryngology surgery (ENT), and neurosurgery (NS). These were compared with Association of American Medical Colleges data of residency applicants for the respective years. RESULTS: Significant differences were seen among gender and UIM(s) of the applicant pool when compared with resident data. All specialties had significantly fewer American Indian and African American residents compared with applicants. Significant differences between applicants and residents were also found among Hispanic, Native Hawaiian, and female demographics. All SSSs had a significant positive trend for the percentage of female residents. Significant differences between specialties were identified among African American, Hispanic, and female residents. Orthopedic surgery and NS had significantly higher percentage of African American residents compared with ENT and integrated plastic surgery. Neurosurgery had significantly higher percentage of Hispanic residents compared with OS and ENT. Integrated plastic surgery and ENT had significantly higher percentage of female residents compared with OS and NS. CONCLUSIONS: There has been significant increase in number of residency programs and resident positions since 2009. However, increase in female residents and UIM(s) among SSSs has not matched the pace of growth.

National analysis of the Modified Monash Model, population distribution and a socio-economic index to inform rural health workforce planning.

AIMS: To describe the population distribution and socio-economic position of residents across all states and territories of Australia, stratified using the 7 Modified Monash Model classifications. The numerical summary, and the methods described, can be applied by a variety of end users including workforce planners, researchers, policy-makers and funding bodies for guiding future investment under different scenarios, and aid in evaluating geographically focused programs. CONTEXT: The Commonwealth Department of Health is transitioning to the Modified Monash Model to objectively describe geographical access. This change applies to the Rural Health Multidisciplinary Training Program, one of the Australian Government's key policies to address the maldistribution of the rural health workforce. Unlike the previously applied Australian Statistical Geography Standard-Remoteness Areas, a summary of the population in each Modified Monash Model classification is not available, nor is a socio-economic overview of the communities within these areas. APPROACH: Spatial analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics data (Modified Monash Model, population data and the Index of Relative Socio-economic Advantage and Disadvantage collected or derived from the 2016 census) at the Statistical Area 1-the smallest unit for the release of census data. CONCLUSION: Linking the Modified Monash Model, a socio-economic index and granular population data at the national level highlights the disadvantage of many residents in small rural towns (Modified Monash 5). The Modified Monash Model does not exhibit a continuum of the largest population residing in the most accessible classification and the smallest population residing in the least accessible classification that is seen in the Australian Statistical Geography Standard-Remoteness Areas. Coupled with policy relevance, the advantage of using the Modified Monash Model as the basis for analysis is that it highlights areas that have both a critical mass of residents and differing levels of socio-economic advantage and disadvantage. This will help end users to target funding to those regions where there is potential to improve access to services for the greatest number of rural residents.

Health workforce demography: a framework to improve understanding of the health workforce and support achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.

The ambition of universal health coverage entails estimation of the number, type and distribution of health workers required to meet the population need for health services. The demography of the population, including anticipated or estimated changes, is a factor in determining the 'universal' needs for health and well-being. Demography is concerned with the size, breakdown, age and gender structure and dynamics of a population. The same science, and its robust methodologies, is equally applicable to the demography of the health workforce itself. For example, a large percentage of the workforce close to retirement will impact availability, a geographically mobile workforce has implications for health coverage, and gender distribution in occupations may have implications for workforce acceptability and equity of opportunity. In a world with an overall shortage of health workers, and the expectation of increasing need as a result of both population growth in the global south and population ageing in the global north, studying and understanding demographic characteristics of the workforce can help with future planning. This paper discusses the dimensions of health worker demography and considers how demographic tools and techniques can be applied to the analysis of the health labour market. A conceptual framework is introduced as a step towards the application of demographic principles and techniques to health workforce analysis and planning exercises as countries work towards universal health coverage, the reduction of inequities and national development targets. Some illustrative data from Nepal and Finland are shown to illustrate the potential of this framework as a simple and effective contribution to health workforce planning.

A scoping review of the nursing workforce's changing demography: Supporting Baby-Boomer nurses.

AIMS: This scoping review discusses two telecommuting options to advance scholarship regarding Baby-Boomer nurses' delayed retirement and to extend their contribution to bedside nursing. BACKGROUND: Peer-reviewed studies published in the 15 years before COVID-19 indicate that Baby-Boomer nurses' retirement will increase the global nursing shortage. However, three international trends have affected Baby-Boomer nurses' decision to delay their retirement. EVALUATION: This review observed the scoping review framework. KEY ISSUES: COVID-19 further disrupts the current understanding of Baby-Boomer nurses' retirement as they recognize COVID-19's impact on health care systems and younger nurses. Technological advancements and the changing needs of health care delivery have made telecommuting a practical possibility. CONCLUSION: Baby-Boomer nurses can leverage alternative work arrangements to meet their needs and to contribute to clinical practice through telecommuting. This approach extends Baby-Boomer nurses' careers and creates a resource for bedside nurses. IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING MANAGEMENT: Clinical experience matters at the bedside. Telecommuting maximizes the retention of Baby-Boomer nurses' clinical expertise to benefit patients and to socialize bedside nurses. Baby-Boomer nurses can contribute to patient monitoring as well as patient education and counselling through telehealth. They can also provide asynchronous and synchronous telementoring to bedside nurses.

Nurses and midwives demographic shift in Ghana-the policy implications of a looming crisis.

As part of measures to address severe shortage of nurses and midwives, Ghana embarked on massive scale-up of the production of nurses and midwives which has yielded remarkable improvements in nurse staffing levels. It has, however, also resulted in a dramatic demographic shift in the nursing and midwifery workforce in which 71 to 93% of nurses and midwives by 2018 were 35 years or younger, as compared with 2.8 to 44% in 2008. In this commentary, we examine how the drastic generational transition could adversely impact on the quality of nursing care and how the educational advancement needs of the young generation of the nursing and midwifery workforce are not being met. We propose the institution of a national nursing and midwifery mentorship programme and a review of the study leave policy to make it flexible and be based on a comprehensive training needs assessment of the nursing and midwifery workforce. We further advocate that policymakers should also consider upgrading all professional nursing and midwifery programmes to bachelor degrees as this would not only potentially enhance the quality of training but also address the phenomenon of large numbers of nurses and midwives seeking bachelor degree training soon after employment-sometimes putting them at the offending side of organisational policy.

[Dentistry demographics of Center Val de Loire region: Opportunities and prospects]. / Démographie des chirurgiens-dentistes en région Centre-Val de Loire : opportunités et perspectives.

The Center Val de Loire region is particularly affected by the shortage of health professionals. The demographics of dentists are not immune to this situation and the retirement of a practitioner has become a real public health issue. For this purpose, bridges were created between the faculties of odontology of Nantes, Clermont-Ferrand and the Faculty of Medicine of Tours, to welcome short cycle students in Center Val de Loire region, to create a link with the liberal practitioners and to allow the students to confront the health issues of this territory.

Application of machine learning models in predicting length of stay among healthcare workers in underserved communities in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Human resource planning in healthcare can employ machine learning to effectively predict length of stay of recruited health workers who are stationed in rural areas. While prior studies have identified a number of demographic factors related to general health practitioners' decision to stay in public health practice, recruitment agencies have no validated methods to predict how long these health workers will commit to their placement. We aim to use machine learning methods to predict health professional's length of practice in the rural public healthcare sector based on their demographic information. METHODS: Recruitment and retention data from Africa Health Placements was used to develop machine-learning models to predict health workers' length of practice. A cross-validation technique was used to validate the models, and to evaluate which model performs better, based on their respective aggregated error rates of prediction. Length of stay was categorized into four groups for classification (less than 1 year, less than 2 years, less than 3 years, and more than 3 years). R, a statistical computing language, was used to train three machine learning models and apply 10-fold cross validation techniques in order to attain evaluative statistics. RESULTS: The three models attain almost identical results, with negligible difference in accuracy. The "best"-performing model (Multinomial logistic classifier) achieved a 47.34% [SD 1.63] classification accuracy while the decision tree model achieved an almost comparable 45.82% [SD 1.69]. The three models achieved an average AUC of approximately 0.66 suggesting sufficient predictive signal at the four categorical variables selected. CONCLUSIONS: Machine-learning models give us a demonstrably effective tool to predict the recruited health workers' length of practice. These models can be adapted in future studies to incorporate other information beside demographic details such as information about placement location and income. Beyond the scope of predicting length of practice, this modelling technique will also allow strategic planning and optimization of public healthcare recruitment.

Divergent Trends in US Maternity and Paternity Leave, 1994-2015.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the number and type of US workers taking maternity or paternity leave. METHODS: We created a publicly available ecological long-term series for measuring parental leave from 1994 to 2015 by using the Current Population Survey, which interviews about 60 000 randomly selected households monthly. RESULTS: The average month from 1994 to 2015 saw 273 000 women and 13 000 men on maternity or paternity leave. Maternity leave rates per 10 000 births showed no trend over 22 years (mean = 677.6). Paternity figures increased by a factor of 3, but started from a small base (14.7-54.6). We observed no national impact on maternity or paternity leave after implementation of state laws that provided paid leave. About half (51.1%) of employees on maternity or paternity leave during 2015 received paid time off. The typical woman on maternity leave was older, more likely married, more likely non-Hispanic White, and more educated than the typical woman who gave birth. CONCLUSIONS: Although the US economy has expanded dramatically since 1994, this improvement does not appear to have translated into more women taking maternity leave.

The Impact of Economic Recession On Registered Nurse Workforce Supply in California.

The severe economic recession from December 2007 to December 2010 substantially affected registered nurse (RN) employment. The objective of this study was to determine if the association between RN workforce supply and its potential determinants differed during the period from 2008 to 2012. Older, experienced RNs were more likely to work in 2010, compared to 2008, but less likely to work in 2012 compared to 2010. RNs were less sensitive to financial factors in 2010 than in 2008, but were more sensitive in 2012 than in 2010. These recession-driven changes in employment may have had impacts on the labor market for newly graduating RNs.

Measuring inequality in physician distributions using spatially adjusted Gini coefficients.

OBJECTIVE: To measure inequality in physician distributions using Gini coefficient and spatially adjusted Gini coefficients. DESIGN: Measurements were based on the distribution of physician data from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) and population data from the Ministry of the Interior in Taiwan. SETTINGS: The distribution of population and physicians in Taiwan from 2001 to 2010. PARTICIPANTS: This study considered 35 000 physicians who are registered in Taiwan. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: To calculate the Gini coefficient and spatially adjusted Gini coefficients in Taiwan from 2001 to 2010. RESULTS: The Gini coefficient for each year, from 2001 to 2010, ranged from 0.5128 to 0.4692, while the spatially adjusted Gini coefficients based on travel time and travel distance ranged, respectively, from 0.4324 to 0.4066 and from 0.4408 to 0.4178. We found that, in each year, irrespective of the type of spatial adjustment, the spatially adjusted Gini coefficient was smaller than the Gini coefficient itself. Our empirical findings support that the Gini coefficient may overestimate the maldistribution of physicians. CONCLUSIONS: Our simulations demonstrate that increasing the number of physicians in medium-sized cities (such as capitals of counties or provinces), and/or improving the transportation time between medium-sized cities and rural areas, could be feasible solutions to mitigate the problem of geographical maldistribution of physicians.

Sociodemographic Disparities in Local Smoke-Free Law Coverage in 10 States.

OBJECTIVES: We assessed sociodemographic disparities in local 100% smoke-free laws prohibiting smoking in all indoor areas of nonhospitality worksites, restaurants, and bars in 10 states. METHODS: We obtained data on local 100% smoke-free laws (US Tobacco Control Laws Database) and subcounty characteristics (2006-2010 American Community Survey) for Alabama, Alaska, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, South Carolina, Texas, and West Virginia. Outcomes included (1) 100% smoke-free law covering restaurants, bars, and workplaces; (2) 100% smoke-free law covering restaurants, bars, or workplaces; and (3) number of venue types covered by 100% smoke-free laws (0-3). Sociodemographics included total population, urban status, percentage racial/ethnic minority, per capita income, percentage with high-school diploma, percentage with blue-collar jobs, and percentage of workers who live and work in the same locality. RESULTS: Across states, localities with less-educated residents, smaller proportions of workers living and working in the same locality, or both generally had lower odds of being covered by 100% smoke-free laws. Coverage varied across states for other sociodemographics. CONCLUSIONS: Disparities exist in local smoke-free law coverage. Identifying patterns in coverage can inform state efforts to address related disparities.

How the government intervention affects the distribution of physicians in Turkey between 1965 and 2000.

INTRODUCTION: One of the main weaknesses of the health system in Turkey is the uneven distribution of physicians. The diversity among geographical districts was huge in the beginning of the 1960s. After the 1980s, the implementation of a two-year compulsory service for newly graduated physicians is an interesting and specific experience for all countries. The aim of this study is to analyse the distribution of physicians, GPs and specialists between the years 1965-2000 and the efficiency of the strict 15 year government intervention (1981-1995). METHODS: The data used in this study includes the published data by the Ministry of Health and The State Institute of Statistics between the years 1965-2000. Covering 35 years for total physicians, GPs and specialists, Gini coefficients are calculated so as to observe the change in the distribution. In order to measure the efficiency of government intervention, Gini index belonging to the previous 15 years (first period-1965 to 1980) and the last 15 years (second period) of 1981 when the compulsory service was enacted is also analysed including the statistical tests. RESULTS: In 1965, the Gini for total physician is quite high (0.47), and in 2000 it decreases considerably (0.20). In 1965, the Gini for GPs and the Gini for specialists is 0.44 and 0.52, respectively and in 2000 these values decrease to 0.13 and 0.28, respectively. It is observed that, with this government intervention, the level of diversity has decreased dramatically up to 2000. Regarding to regression, the rate of decrease in Gini index in the second period is higher for the GPs than that of the specialists. CONCLUSION: The inequalities in the distribution between GPs and specialists are significantly different; inequality of specialist distribution is higher than the GP. The improvement of the inequality in the physician distribution produced by the market mechanism shows a long period when it is left to its own devices. It is seen that the compulsory service policy is efficient since the physician distribution has improved significantly. The government intervention provides a faster improvement in the GP distribution.