A Brief Economic Analysis of the Looming Nursing Shortage In the United States.

The United States is projected to experience a nursing shortage in the coming years as market forces begin to shift away from equilibrium. A return to pre-recession work levels, aging baby boomers, and insufficient numbers of nursing graduates adversely affect the supply of nurses The aging population, a rise in chronic care management needs, and the Affordable Care Act will result in an increasing demand for them. Returning to a state of equilibrium is critical if our health care system is to ensure care that is accessible, safe, and cost effective.

Human resources for health and universal health coverage: fostering equity and effective coverage.

Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves distributing resources, especially human resources for health (HRH), to match population needs. This paper explores the policy lessons on HRH from four countries that have achieved sustained improvements in UHC: Brazil, Ghana, Mexico and Thailand. Its purpose is to inform global policy and financial commitments on HRH in support of UHC. The paper reports on country experiences using an analytical framework that examines effective coverage in relation to the availability, accessibility, acceptability and quality (AAAQ) of HRH. The AAAQ dimensions make it possible to perform tracing analysis on HRH policy actions since 1990 in the four countries of interest in relation to national trends in workforce numbers and population mortality rates. The findings inform key principles for evidence-based decision-making on HRH in support of UHC. First, HRH are critical to the expansion of health service coverage and the package of benefits; second, HRH strategies in each of the AAAQ dimensions collectively support achievements in effective coverage; and third, success is achieved through partnerships involving health and non-health actors. Facing the unprecedented health and development challenges that affect all countries and transforming HRH evidence into policy and practice must be at the heart of UHC and the post-2015 development agenda. It is a political imperative requiring national commitment and leadership to maximize the impact of available financial and human resources, and improve healthy life expectancy, with the recognition that improvements in health care are enabled by a health workforce that is fit for purpose.

Parvenir à la couverture sanitaire universelle (CSU) implique la répartition des ressources, et en particulier des ressources humaines pour la santé (RHS), afin de répondre aux besoins de la population. Cet article étudie les leçons politiques sur les RHS de quatre pays ayant accompli des progrès durables en matière de CSU: le Brésil, le Ghana, le Mexique et la Thaïlande. Son but est d'informer sur les politiques globales et les engagements financiers dans les RHS visant à promouvoir la CSU.L'article décrit les expériences des pays à l'aide d'un cadre analytique examinant la couverture efficace par rapport à la disponibilité, l'accessibilité, l'acceptabilité et la qualité (DAAQ) des RHS. Les dimensions DAAQ permettent de réaliser une analyse de traçage des actions politiques en RHS depuis 1990 dans les quatre pays étudiés, par rapport aux tendances nationales des statistiques de main-d'oeuvre et des taux de mortalité de la population. Les résultats indiquent quels sont les principes clés pour la prise de décisions basées sur les faits sur les RHS visant à promouvoir la CSU. Premièrement, les RHS sont essentielles à l'expansion de la couverture des services de santé et de l'ensemble des avantages; deuxièmement, des stratégies RHS pour chacune des dimensions DAAQ favorisent collectivement les progrès vers une couverture efficace; et troisièmement, le succès est atteint à travers des partenariats impliquant des acteurs tant médicaux que non médicaux.Répondre aux défis sans précédent dans les domaines de la santé et du développement, qui concernent tous les pays, et transformer les faits RHS en politiques et en pratiques doivent être à la base du programme de CSU et de l'agenda de développement post-2015. C'est un impératif politique qui exige un engagement et un leadership nationaux pour optimiser l'impact des ressources financières et humaines disponibles et accroître l'espérance de vie en bonne santé, avec la reconnaissance que les progrès dans le domaine des soins de santé ne sont possibles qu'avec une main-d'oeuvre de santé adéquate.

Lograr una cobertura sanitaria universal implica una distribución de los recursos, en particular, de los recursos humanos para la salud (RHS), a fin de satisfacer las necesidades de la población. Este documento examina las lecciones sobre políticas relacionadas con los RHS de cuatro países que han conseguido avances ininterrumpidos en materia de cobertura sanitaria universal: Brasil, Ghana, México y Tailandia. Su objetivo consiste en exponer la política mundial y los compromisos financieros sobre RHS como ayuda para una cobertura sanitaria universal.El documento explica las experiencias de los países mencionados por medio de un marco de trabajo analítico que examina la eficacia de una cobertura en función de la disponibilidad, accesibilidad, aceptabilidad y calidad (DAAC) de los RHS. Los aspectos DAAC permiten llevar a cabo análisis de seguimiento sobre las acciones políticas relativas a los RHS desde 1990 en los cuatro países de interés en relación con las tendencias nacionales en el número de trabajadores y las tasas de mortalidad de la población.Los resultados muestran los principios fundamentales para la toma de decisiones basadas en pruebas científicas sobre los RHS como apoyo a una cobertura sanitaria universal. En primer lugar, los RHS son esenciales para expandir la cobertura de los servicios sanitarios y el conjunto de prestaciones. En segundo lugar, las estrategias RHS en cada uno de los aspectos DAAC respaldan de forma colectiva los logros en la eficacia de la cobertura y, en tercer lugar, los buenos resultados solo pueden conseguirse a través de la asociación de actores sanitarios y no sanitarios.Hacer frente a los desafíos sanitarios y de desarrollo sin precedentes que afectan a todos los países y traducir las pruebas científicas sobre RHS en políticas y prácticas deben convertirse en los puntos centrales de la cobertura sanitaria universal y de la agenda de desarrollo a partir del año 2015. Se trata de un imperativo político que requiere un compromiso y liderazgo nacionales para potenciar el impacto de los recursos financieros y humanos disponibles, y así mejorar la esperanza de vida saludable, sin olvidar que las mejoras en materia de asistencia sanitaria son posibles gracias a un personal sanitario apto para tal propósito.

The human resource implications of improving financial risk protection for mothers and newborns in Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: A paradigm shift in global health policy on user fees has been evident in the last decade with a growing consensus that user fees undermine equitable access to essential health care in many low and middle income countries. Changes to fees have major implications for human resources for health (HRH), though the linkages are rarely explicitly examined. This study aimed to examine the inter-linkages in Zimbabwe in order to generate lessons for HRH and fee policies, with particular respect to reproductive, maternal and newborn health (RMNH). METHODS: The study used secondary data and small-scale qualitative fieldwork (key informant interview and focus group discussions) at national level and in one district in 2011. RESULTS: The past decades have seen a shift in the burden of payments onto households. Implementation of the complex rules on exemptions is patchy and confused. RMNH services are seen as hard for families to afford, even in the absence of complications. Human resources are constrained in managing current demand and any growth in demand by high external and internal migration, and low remuneration, amongst other factors. We find that nurses and midwives are evenly distributed across the country (at least in the public sector), though doctors are not. This means that for four provinces, there are not enough doctors to provide more complex care, and only three provinces could provide cover in the event of all deliveries taking place in facilities. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis suggests that there is a strong case for reducing the financial burden on clients of RMNH services and also a pressing need to improve the terms and conditions of key health staff. Numbers need to grow, and distribution is also a challenge, suggesting the need for differentiated policies in relation to rural areas, especially for doctors and specialists. The management of user fees should also be reviewed, particularly for non-Ministry facilities, which do not retain their revenues, and receive limited investment in return from the municipalities and district councils. Overall public investment in health needs to grow.

The supply and demand of chiropractors in the United States from 1996 to 2005.

CONTEXT: The chiropractic profession is the largest, most established complementary and alternative medical (CAM) profession in the United States. The use of unconventional healthcare in the United States has increased in recent years, yet little is known about the market for specific CAM professions such as chiropractic. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the market for US chiropractors between 1996 and 2005. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We conducted a descriptive study of the chiropractic profession from 1996 to 2005 using data from the Medical Expenditure Survey, the National Center for Education Statistics, and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The amount and proportion of outpatient healthcare expenditures on chiropractic care in the United States, total chiropractors, number of chiropractors per adult population (>18 years), graduates from chiropractic schools, and professional income of chiropractors. RESULTS: From 1996 to 2005 the proportion of outpatient US healthcare expenditures spent on chiropractic care increased from 2.15% to 3.26%. The total number of US chiropractors increased from 43 663 to 52 687 in 2004, but growth slowed between 2002 and 2004, resulting in a decrease in the number of chiropractors per 10000 US adults. Between academic years 1996 and 2001, chiropractic schools graduated about 3700 students each year; however, between 2001 and 2003, the annual number of chiropractic graduates decreased by 28%. Between 1998 and 2005, the inflation-adjusted median self-reported annual income of employed chiropractors fell from $76598 to $67200. CONCLUSION: From 1996 to 2005, relative expenditures on chiropractic care increased; however, the number of chiropractic graduates, the rate of growth of chiropractors, and the incomes of chiropractors have declined. Future research is needed to investigate why national expenditures on chiropractic care have increased despite an apparent decrease in the supply of US chiropractors.

Human resource development: new assessments and new directions.

The National Health Plan (NHP) 2001-2010 required a health workforce situation analysis and strategy to match the NHP's priorities and strategies. This paper is based on the work that was done in 2001 to support the preparation of a Health Human Resource Development Strategy for Papua New Guinea (PNG). The analysis showed that changes in health sector financing, population growth and changing health needs had created many human resource problems and challenges. This paper focuses on the main categories of health worker in PNG: doctors, health extension officers, nurses and community health workers. It presents analyses of workforce numbers and costs, and discusses future health system and human resource strategies based on the 2001 study and subsequent developments.

[Examples of physician-patient relations, Perche-government of Quebec: debts for medical expenses, 1690-1740-1770]. / Exemples de relations praticiens- patients, Perche-gouvernement de Québec: dettes pour frais médicaux, 1690-1740-1770.

This paper is a comparative study of debts for medical services among the populations of Perche (Low-Normandy, France) and Quebec during the 1690s, 1740s and 1770s, as presented in metropolitan-colonial reports. This socioeconomic study presents the social and geographic characteristics of patients who needed medical services, the debts incurred, the popularity of practitioners, and the level of medicalization in these two areas.

Health care demand elasticities by type of service.

We estimate within-year price elasticities of demand for detailed health care services using an instrumental variable strategy, in which individual monthly cost shares are instrumented by employer-year-plan-month average cost shares. A specification using backward myopic prices gives more plausible and stable results than using forward myopic prices. Using 171 million person-months spanning 73 employers from 2008 to 2014, we estimate that the overall demand elasticity by backward myopic consumers is -0.44, with higher elasticities of demand for pharmaceuticals (-0.44), specialists visits (-0.32), MRIs (-0.29) and mental health/substance abuse (-0.26), and lower elasticities for prevention visits (-0.02) and emergency rooms (-0.04). Demand response is lower for children, in larger firms, among hourly waged employees, and for sicker people. Overall the method appears promising for estimating elasticities for highly disaggregated services although the approach does not work well on services that are very expensive or persistent.

The nonphysician provider in the gastroenterology practice.

Our nonphysician provider (NPP) experience has transformed the functioning and image of our practice. It allows the practice to care for poorly compensated or noncompensated patients and contains costs under managed care. NPPs enable our physicians to maintain reasonable workloads and focus their energy and skills on high-level diagnosis and treatment. This decreases the risk of physician burnout, and allows a diminishing supply of gastroenterologists to practice medicine until normal retirement age. NPPs greatly enhance physician productivity, revenue, and patient and physician satisfaction.

Substitution of doctors by nurses in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Demand for primary care services has increased in developed countries due to population ageing, rising patient expectations, and reforms that shift care from hospitals to the community. At the same time, the supply of physicians is constrained and there is increasing pressure to contain costs. Shifting care from physicians to nurses is one possible response to these challenges. The expectation is that nurse-doctor substitution will reduce cost and physician workload while maintaining quality of care. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to evaluate the impact of doctor-nurse substitution in primary care on patient outcomes, process of care, and resource utilisation including cost. Patient outcomes included: morbidity; mortality; satisfaction; compliance; and preference. Process of care outcomes included: practitioner adherence to clinical guidelines; standards or quality of care; and practitioner health care activity (e.g. provision of advice). Resource utilisation was assessed by: frequency and length of consultations; return visits; prescriptions; tests and investigations; referral to other services; and direct or indirect costs. SEARCH STRATEGY: The following databases were searched for the period 1966 to 2002: Medline; Cinahl; Bids, Embase; Social Science Citation Index; British Nursing Index; HMIC; EPOC Register; and Cochrane Controlled Trial Register. Search terms specified the setting (primary care), professional (nurse), study design (randomised controlled trial, controlled before-and-after-study, interrupted time series), and subject (e.g. skill mix). SELECTION CRITERIA: Studies were included if nurses were compared to doctors providing a similar primary health care service (excluding accident and emergency services). Primary care doctors included: general practitioners, family physicians, paediatricians, general internists or geriatricians. Primary care nurses included: practice nurses, nurse practitioners, clinical nurse specialists, or advanced practice nurses. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Study selection and data extraction was conducted independently by two reviewers with differences resolved through discussion. Meta-analysis was applied to outcomes for which there was adequate reporting of intervention effects from at least three randomised controlled trials. Semi-quantitative methods were used to synthesize other outcomes. MAIN RESULTS: 4253 articles were screened of which 25 articles, relating to 16 studies, met our inclusion criteria. In seven studies the nurse assumed responsibility for first contact and ongoing care for all presenting patients. The outcomes investigated varied across studies so limiting the opportunity for data synthesis. In general, no appreciable differences were found between doctors and nurses in health outcomes for patients, process of care, resource utilisation or cost. In five studies the nurse assumed responsibility for first contact care for patients wanting urgent consultations during office hours or out-of-hours. Patient health outcomes were similar for nurses and doctors but patient satisfaction was higher with nurse-led care. Nurses tended to provide longer consultations, give more information to patients and recall patients more frequently than did doctors. The impact on physician workload and direct cost of care was variable. In four studies the nurse took responsibility for the ongoing management of patients with particular chronic conditions. The outcomes investigated varied across studies so limiting the opportunity for data synthesis. In general, no appreciable differences were found between doctors and nurses in health outcomes for patients, process of care, resource utilisation or cost. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that appropriately trained nurses can produce as high quality care as primary care doctors and achieve as good health outcomes for patients. However, this conclusion should be viewed with caution given that only one study was powered to assess equivalence of care, many studies had methodological limitations, and patient follow-up was generally 12 months or less. While doctor-nurse substitution has the potential to reduce doctors' workload and direct healthcare costs, achieving such reductions depends on the particular context of care. Doctors' workload may remain unchanged either because nurses are deployed to meet previously unmet patient need or because nurses generate demand for care where previously there was none. Savings in cost depend on the magnitude of the salary differential between doctors and nurses, and may be offset by the lower productivity of nurses compared to doctors.

Financial Recruitment Incentive Programs for Nursing Personnel in Canada.

Financial incentives are increasingly offered to recruit nursing personnel to work in underserved communities. The authors describe and compare the characteristics of federal, provincial and territorial financial recruitment incentive programs for registered nurses (RNs), nurse practitioners (NPs), licensed practical nurses (LPNs), registered practical nurses or registered psychiatric nurses. The authors identified incentive programs from government, health ministry and student aid websites and by contacting program officials. Only government-funded recruitment programs providing funding beyond the normal employee wages and benefits and requiring a service commitment were included. The authors excluded programs offered by hospitals, regional or private firms, and programs that rewarded retention. All provinces and territories except QC and NB offer financial recruitment incentive programs for RNs; six provinces (BC, AB, SK, ON, QC and NL) offer programs for NPs, and NL offers a program for LPNs. Programs include student loan forgiveness, tuition forgiveness, education bursaries, signing bonuses and relocation expenses. Programs target trainees, recent graduates and new hires. Funding and service requirements vary by program, and service requirements are not always commensurate with funding levels. This snapshot of government-funded recruitment incentives provides program managers with data to compare and improve nursing workforce recruitment initiatives.

The Clinton plan: a researcher examines reform.

The Clintons are commended for bringing health care reform to the top of the domestic policy agenda. Their plan's basic elements are summarized and critiqued, with emphasis on the problems posed by its complexity. Five false assumptions that underlie most reform proposals are examined. They concern the burden of health care costs, the significance of firm size, the effect of health care costs on global competitiveness, the relation between insurance coverage and expenditures, and the implications of health care reform for the health of the population. Three critical issues for the future of health policy are discussed: the disengagement of health insurance from employment, the taming of technologic change, and coping with an aging society.

The demand for health insurance coverage by low-income workers: can reduced premiums achieve full coverage?

OBJECTIVE: To assess the degree to which premium reductions will increase the participation in employer-sponsored health plans by low-income workers who are employed in small businesses. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: Sample of workers in small business (25 or fewer employees) in seven metropolitan areas. The data were gathered as part of the Small Business Benefits Survey, a telephone survey of small business conducted between October 1992 and February 1993. STUDY DESIGN: Probit regressions were used to estimate the demand for health insurance coverage by low-income workers. Predictions based on these findings were made to assess the extent to which premium reductions might increase coverage rates. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Workers included in the sample were selected, at random, from a randomly generated set of firms drawn from Dun and Bradstreet's DMI (Dun's Market Inclusion). The response rate was 81 percent. FINDINGS: Participation in employer-sponsored plans is high when coverage is offered. However, even when coverage is offered to employees who have no other source of insurance, participation is not universal. Although premium reductions will increase participation in employer-sponsored plans, even large subsidies will not induce all workers to participate in employer-sponsored plans. For workers eligible to participate, subsidies as high as 75 percent of premiums are estimated to increase participation rates from 89.0 percent to 92.6 percent. For workers in firms that do not sponsor plans, similar subsidies are projected to achieve only modest increases in coverage above that which would be observed if the workers had access to plans at unsubsidized, group market rates. CONCLUSIONS: Policies that rely on voluntary purchase of coverage to reduce the number of uninsured will have only modest success.

Time prices and the demand for GP services.

This paper analyzes the effects of time prices on the demand for general practitioner (GP) services. Where data on earnings per unit of time was not available, an alternative method was used to impute the value of time. Separate elasticities were estimated using interactive dummy variables for individual employment status. Furthermore, a distinction was made between patient-initiated and physician-initiated visits to a GP. The results show that the probability of a patient-initiated visit is negatively influenced by the time required, for 4 of the 6 employment status categories defined. For a subsample, time was valued on the basis of earnings per time unit. The resulting time price was found to have a significant negative impact on the probability of a patient-initiated visit to a GP. However neither time nor time prices have any effect on the probability of a physician-initiated visit. It can therefore be concluded that time prices are a relevant factor in the determination of demand for GP services, particularly if it is the patient who is making the decision. Ignoring time prices could result in the mis-specification of demand equations, obtaining biased results from statistical analyses and wrongly assessing policy implications.

Managing medical workforces: from relative stability to disequilibrium in the UK NHS.

The management of the medical workforce, in particular the market for physicians, is costly and complex. For decades this process has been dominated by largely mechanistic forecasting (e.g., fixed doctor-population ratios), which ignored economic determinants. Internationally, and specifically in the UK, such practices achieved some success in producing modest cyclical shortages and surpluses in the past. However with large increases in UK health care funding, together with the international recognition of significant practice, activity and outcome variations in health care, this approach is now inadequate. With physician shortages emerging internationally, the impact of incentives (both financial and non-financial) on skill-mix (are nurses cost effective substitutes or complements for physicians?), activity (can distribution means be shifted and variation reduced?) and outcomes (can survival duration and quality of life of survival be improved?) is now central to policy development. Such issues create nice challenges for researchers and policy makers.

Integrated health programmes.

PIP: Over a period of 10 years, a hospital in rural Africa slowly built an integrated primary and secondary health care program to the point where it has more than 40 elements. In its initial stage (1982-84), hospital staff and community participants were trained, the number of mobile clinics was increased, community participation was sought, and health education was emphasized. During 1985-86, 92 village health committees were organized with 70 trained Village Health Workers (VHWs). This led to a rapid increase in vaccination rates, the use of oral rehydration therapy, and training of traditional birth attendants. In 1987-88, 14 VHW were trained to use basic medical kits and distribute medicines. By 1990, 18,000 of the 72,000 outpatient treatments were administered by VHWs. In 1987, the hospital made a community diagnosis and increased the size of its advisory board (which became 60% female). Because the community identified food, water, and poverty as its priorities, the hospital took steps to improve the food supply, the water supply, and the financial position of the women. In 1989-90, the primary health care (PHC) project added the components of family planning, a weaning food production unit, food coupons, food for work, grain banks, a trust fund, literacy classes, health stamps, a mobile malnutrition clinic, subsidized fertilizer and seed, low-cost care for victims of AIDS, new malaria treatment schedules, and a housing association. The PHC program has resulted in a reduction in under-five deaths from the national average of 330/1000 to 145/1000 (other areas have reduced deaths to 270-300/1000. The program is also becoming increasingly cost-effective, costing about 6 pounds per capita over 10 years for a population of 50,000. Country-wide implementation of the PHC program would require only 30% of the present health budget.^ieng

A cure for what ails medical care.

Call it the American disease. The symptoms: unchecked health care spending and too many uninsured. The remedy: introducing more marketplace logic into the system.

What health care cost crisis?

Managed care has inherent limitations that, perhaps out of desperation for some degree of control of health care costs, we tend to disregard. A better understanding of the "crisis" and a host of new strategies become apparent when we separately consider the health care elements and cost elements of the crisis. Managed care is essentially palliative in that it eases symptoms without curing conditions. While this is not a call for the abandonment of managed care, it is a warning that our efforts will prove futile if we do not also address other fundamental elements of impaired health.