An assessment of existing surge capacity of tertiary healthcare system of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan using workload indicators for staffing need method.

BACKGROUND: Globally the occurrence of disasters has increased more than fourfold during the last three decades. The main concern for the healthcare system responding to a disaster is its ability to deal with the sudden influx of patients and maintaining a certain level of surge capacity. Health workers are considered to be the major driving force behind any health system. Their role gets even more prominent during disasters or public health emergencies. With the lack of information on the health workforce in the tertiary healthcare system of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where most of the disaster surge is diverted, it is difficult to plan and respond to accommodate the sudden surge of patients. METHODS: This was a mixed method cross-sectional survey conducted in all the tertiary care hospitals of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan to assess the current staffing situation and surge capacity based on the current workload. Annual service statistics of 2018 were collected from all the tertiary care hospitals of the province. WISN was piloted with only one healthcare staff category, i.e., for doctors in Ayub Teaching Hospital before assessment in all the tertiary care hospitals was undertaken. RESULTS: Overall, there were 1215 surplus doctors in medical and allied specialties and 861 doctors in surgical and allied specialties in the tertiary healthcare system. The health care system has an acute shortage of 565 emergency department doctors. The tertiary healthcare system of KP has an overall shortage of 1099 nurses. Based on the WISN generated numbers for doctors, the tertiary care system of KP has a combined healthcare staff (doctors and nurses) that can manage an additional surge of 6.3% of patients with the current patient workload. CONCLUSION: The tertiary health care system of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan does not possess the required ≥ 20% HR surge capacity indicating that the tertiary healthcare system is poorly prepared for disasters or public health emergencies. The lack of nursing staff, more than the doctors, is the major reason behind the lack of HR surge capacity of the tertiary health care system.