الملخص
Objective To investigate the changing trend of the current situation of Internet-based oncology outpatient treatment and provide support for the development and management of Internet hospitals.Methods The ARIMA and GM(1,1)models were constructed based on the Internet-based outpatient data of a cancer hospital from January 2021 to June 2023,and the fitting effect was evaluated by mean absolute error(MAE)and root mean square error(RMSE).Based on the model,the pro-portion of Internet-based outpatient visits and the offline outpatient visits were predicted from July to December 2023.Results ARIMA(1,1,2)and GM(1,1)models were used to predict the proportion of Internet-based outpatient visits.The average abso-lute errors were 2.06%and 2.41%,and the root-mean-square errors were 3.01%and 3.17%,respectively.The ARIMA(0,1,1)and GM(1,1)models were used to predict the proportion of Internet-based outpatient visits to the offline outpatient visits,with the rate of the average absolute errors of 0.58%and 1.08%,respectively,and the rate of the root mean square errors 0.75%and 1.31%,respectively.The figures indicated that the ARIMA model had a better prediction effect.The forecast results showed that the predicted value of Internet outpatient service in December 2023 was 90.35%,and the predicted value of Internet-based outpatient service accounted for 16.46%of the offline outpatient service.Conclusion In 2021-2023,the proportion of Inter-net-based outpatient visits in the cancer hospital showed a steady trend,and the proportion of Internet outpatient visits in the off-line outpatient visits showed a rising trend.Therefore,hospitals need to establish a continuous monitoring mechanism,constantly adjust management strategies and measures to meet the needs of patients and continue to promote the high-quality development of Internet-based medical services.
الملخص
Objective:To comprehensively analyze the medical resources and services supply in the cancer field of China.Methods:Data of 2018 were sampled from 41 tertiary public cancer hospitals in China, and the factor analysis method was used to extract common factors in resources or services, scoring respectively. Pearson correlation analysis was used in the collinearity test of the variables of both groups of common factors, while the second-order clustering method was used to analyze characteristic differences between the hospitals, and category difference was compared with t test. Results:Resource evaluation covered the two dimensions of basic resources(medical service and basic assurance resources)and high-end resources(high-end talents and academic resources). Service evaluation covered the two dimensions of medical service assurance(clinical services and basic assurance)and disciplinary sphere of influence(discipline construction and clinical efficiency). The factor of basic manpower and beds was significantly correlated with that of medical service and basic assurance( r=0.811, P<0.001), while the factor of high-end talents and academic resources was significantly correlated with that disciplinary construction and resource efficiency( r=0.906, P<0.001). The second-order cluster analysis found the 41 cancer hospitals as two categories, with the first category of five in Guangdong, Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin, and the second category of the rest 36 hospitals. Significant differences were found between the two categories in terms of resource scoring, service scoring, high-end resources and disciplinary sphere of influence( P<0.001). Meanwhile, the GDP per capita of the cities in which these hospitals are located also had significant differences( P<0.001). Conclusions:Development of public tertiary cancer hospitals in China was imbalanced, as their differences were mainly found in levels of disciplinary development and efficiency of clinical services, which were closely related to the high-end talents and academic resources of the hospital in question.Furthermore, high quality medical care was mostly located in regions of higher development. The authors recommend to take a balanced consideration of the differences and distribution of cancer care services in China, in terms of performance classification of public hospitals and establishment of regional cancer centers of the country.
الملخص
Objective To explore the management of the development of medical research.Methods This paper analyzes the construction mode and experience of the National Center for Clinical Medicine Research in promoting the transformation of medical research,and discusses the cooperation mechanism,talent construction,performance evaluation and institution construction.Results Based on proposed development stage medical institutions and resources,and gradually improve the "transformation chain" management thinking.Conclusions Medical institutions should rely on basic and clin ical resources,based on the concept of medical transformation,strengthen the top design,and gradually change the management model.