الملخص
Background/Aims@#Despite the high efficacy of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs), approximately 1–3% of hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients fail to achieve a sustained virological response. We conducted a nationwide study to investigate risk factors associated with DAA treatment failure. Machine-learning algorithms have been applied to discriminate subjects who may fail to respond to DAA therapy. @*Methods@#We analyzed the Taiwan HCV Registry Program database to explore predictors of DAA failure in HCV patients. Fifty-five host and virological features were assessed using multivariate logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and artificial neural network. The primary outcome was undetectable HCV RNA at 12 weeks after the end of treatment. @*Results@#The training (n=23,955) and validation (n=10,346) datasets had similar baseline demographics, with an overall DAA failure rate of 1.6% (n=538). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that liver cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, poor DAA adherence, and higher hemoglobin A1c were significantly associated with virological failure. XGBoost outperformed the other algorithms and logistic regression models, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 1.000 in the training dataset and 0.803 in the validation dataset. The top five predictors of treatment failure were HCV RNA, body mass index, α-fetoprotein, platelets, and FIB-4 index. The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the XGBoost model (cutoff value=0.5) were 99.5%, 69.7%, 99.9%, 97.4%, and 99.5%, respectively, for the entire dataset. @*Conclusions@#Machine learning algorithms effectively provide risk stratification for DAA failure and additional information on the factors associated with DAA failure.
الملخص
Background/Aims@#Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients who failed antiviral therapy are at increased risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study assessed the potential role of metformin and statins, medications for diabetes mellitus (DM) and hyperlipidemia (HLP), in reducing HCC risk among these patients. @*Methods@#We included CHC patients from the T-COACH study who failed antiviral therapy. We tracked the onset of HCC 1.5 years post-therapy by linking to Taiwan’s cancer registry data from 2003 to 2019. We accounted for death and liver transplantation as competing risks and employed Gray’s cumulative incidence and Cox subdistribution hazards models to analyze HCC development. @*Results@#Out of 2,779 patients, 480 (17.3%) developed HCC post-therapy. DM patients not using metformin had a 51% increased risk of HCC compared to non-DM patients, while HLP patients on statins had a 50% reduced risk compared to those without HLP. The 5-year HCC incidence was significantly higher for metformin non-users (16.5%) versus non-DM patients (11.3%; adjusted sub-distribution hazard ratio [aSHR]=1.51; P=0.007) and metformin users (3.1%; aSHR=1.59; P=0.022). Statin use in HLP patients correlated with a lower HCC risk (3.8%) compared to non-HLP patients (12.5%; aSHR=0.50; P<0.001). Notably, the increased HCC risk associated with non-use of metformin was primarily seen in non-cirrhotic patients, whereas statins decreased HCC risk in both cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients. @*Conclusions@#Metformin and statins may have a chemopreventive effect against HCC in CHC patients who failed antiviral therapy. These results support the need for personalized preventive strategies in managing HCC risk.
الملخص
Background/Aims@#Real-world studies assessing the effectiveness and safety of sofosbuvir/velpatasvir (SOF/VEL) plus ribavirin (RBV) for Child-Pugh B/C hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis are limited. @*Methods@#We included 107 patients with Child-Pugh B/C HCV-related cirrhosis receiving SOF/VEL plus RBV for 12 weeks in Taiwan. The sustained virologic response rates at off-treatment week 12 (SVR12) for the evaluable population (EP), modified EP, and per-protocol population (PP) were assessed. Thesafety profiles were reported. @*Results@#The SVR12 rates in the EP, modified EP and PP were 89.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 82.5–94.2%), 94.1% (95% CI, 87.8–97.3%), and 100% (95% CI, 96.2–100%). Number of patients who failed to achieve SVR12 were attributed to virologic failures. The SVR12 rates were comparable regardless of patient characteristics. One patient discontinued treatment because of adverse events (AEs). Twenty-four patients had serious AEs and six died, but none were related to SOF/VEL or RBV. Among the 96 patients achieving SVR12, 84.4% and 64.6% had improved Child-Pugh and model for endstage liver disease (MELD) scores. Multivariate analysis revealed that a baseline MELD score ≥15 was associated with an improved MELD score of ≥3 (odds ratio, 4.13; 95% CI, 1.16–14.71; P=0.02). Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage 1 had more significant estimated glomerular filtration rate declines than patients with CKD stage 2 (-0.42 mL/min/1.73 m2/month; P=0.01) or stage 3 (-0.56 mL/min/1.73 m2/month; P<0.001). @*Conclusions@#SOF/VEL plus RBV for 12 weeks is efficacious and well-tolerated for Child-Pugh B/C HCV-related cirrhosis.
الملخص
Background/Aims@#Real-world studies assessing the effectiveness and safety of sofosbuvir/velpatasvir (SOF/VEL) plus ribavirin (RBV) for Child-Pugh B/C hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis are limited. @*Methods@#We included 107 patients with Child-Pugh B/C HCV-related cirrhosis receiving SOF/VEL plus RBV for 12 weeks in Taiwan. The sustained virologic response rates at off-treatment week 12 (SVR12) for the evaluable population (EP), modified EP, and per-protocol population (PP) were assessed. Thesafety profiles were reported. @*Results@#The SVR12 rates in the EP, modified EP and PP were 89.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 82.5–94.2%), 94.1% (95% CI, 87.8–97.3%), and 100% (95% CI, 96.2–100%). Number of patients who failed to achieve SVR12 were attributed to virologic failures. The SVR12 rates were comparable regardless of patient characteristics. One patient discontinued treatment because of adverse events (AEs). Twenty-four patients had serious AEs and six died, but none were related to SOF/VEL or RBV. Among the 96 patients achieving SVR12, 84.4% and 64.6% had improved Child-Pugh and model for endstage liver disease (MELD) scores. Multivariate analysis revealed that a baseline MELD score ≥15 was associated with an improved MELD score of ≥3 (odds ratio, 4.13; 95% CI, 1.16–14.71; P=0.02). Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage 1 had more significant estimated glomerular filtration rate declines than patients with CKD stage 2 (-0.42 mL/min/1.73 m2/month; P=0.01) or stage 3 (-0.56 mL/min/1.73 m2/month; P<0.001). @*Conclusions@#SOF/VEL plus RBV for 12 weeks is efficacious and well-tolerated for Child-Pugh B/C HCV-related cirrhosis.
الملخص
BACKGROUND/AIMS: Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) contributes to poorer short-term mortality in cirrhotic patients with ascites. However, it is unknown how long the effect of the first SBP event persists in these patients. METHODS: The National Health Insurance Database, derived from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Program, was used to identify and enroll 7,892 cirrhotic patients with ascites who were hospitalized between January 1 and December 31, 2007. All patients were free from episodes of SBP from 1996 to 2006. RESULTS: The study included 1,176 patients with SBP. The overall 30-day, 90-day, 1-year, and 3-year mortality rates in this group were 21.8%, 38.9%, 57.5%, and 73.4%, respectively. The overall 30-day, 90-day, 1-year, and 3-year mortality rates in the non-SBP group were 15.7%, 32.5%, 53.3%, and 72.5%, respectively. After adjusting for gender, age, and other medical comorbidities, the adjusted hazard ratios of SBP for 30-day, 30- to 90-day, 90-day to 1-year, and 1- to 3-year mortality were 1.49 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.30 to 1.71), 1.19 (95% CI, 1.02 to 1.38), 1.04 (95% CI, 0.90 to 1.20), and 0.90 (95% CI, 0.77 to 1.05), respectively, compared with the non-SBP group. CONCLUSIONS: The effect of SBP on the mortality of cirrhotic patients with ascites disappeared in those surviving more than 90 days after the first SBP event.