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1.
مقالة ي الانجليزية | WPRIM | ID: wpr-1007904

الملخص

OBJECTIVE@#This study aimed to investigate the potential relationship between urinary metals copper (Cu), arsenic (As), strontium (Sr), barium (Ba), iron (Fe), lead (Pb) and manganese (Mn) and grip strength.@*METHODS@#We used linear regression models, quantile g-computation and Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) to assess the relationship between metals and grip strength.@*RESULTS@#In the multimetal linear regression, Cu (β = -2.119), As (β = -1.318), Sr (β = -2.480), Ba (β = 0.781), Fe (β = 1.130) and Mn (β = -0.404) were significantly correlated with grip strength ( P < 0.05). The results of the quantile g-computation showed that the risk of occurrence of grip strength reduction was -1.007 (95% confidence interval: -1.362, -0.652; P < 0.001) when each quartile of the mixture of the seven metals was increased. Bayesian kernel function regression model analysis showed that mixtures of the seven metals had a negative overall effect on grip strength, with Cu, As and Sr being negatively associated with grip strength levels. In the total population, potential interactions were observed between As and Mn and between Cu and Mn ( P interactions of 0.003 and 0.018, respectively).@*CONCLUSION@#In summary, this study suggests that combined exposure to metal mixtures is negatively associated with grip strength. Cu, Sr and As were negatively correlated with grip strength levels, and there were potential interactions between As and Mn and between Cu and Mn.


الموضوعات
Cross-Sectional Studies , Bayes Theorem , China/epidemiology , Metals/toxicity , Arsenic , Strontium
2.
Chinese Journal of Biotechnology ; (12): 252-268, 2024.
مقالة ي صينى | WPRIM | ID: wpr-1008093

الملخص

The elucidation of resources pertaining to the Chimonanthus praecox varieties and the establishment of a fingerprint serve as crucial underpinnings for advancing scientific inquiry and industrial progress in relation to C. praecox. Employing the SSR molecular marker technology, an exploration of the genetic diversity of 175 C. praecox varieties (lines) in the Yanling region was conducted, and an analysis of the genetic diversity among these varieties was carried out using the UPDM clustering method in NTSYSpc 2.1 software. We analyzed the genetic structure of 175 germplasm using Structure v2.3.3 software based on a Bayesian model. General linear model (GLM) association was utilized to analyze traits and markers. The genetic diversity analysis revealed a mean number of alleles (Na) of 6.857, a mean expected heterozygosity (He) of 0.496 3, a mean observed heterozygosity (Ho) of 0.503 7, a mean genetic diversity index of Nei՚s of 0.494 9, and a mean Shannon information index of 0.995 8. These results suggest that the C. praecox population in Yanling exhibits a rich genetic diversity. Additionally, the population structure and the UPDM clustering were examined. In the GLM model, a total of fifteen marker loci exhibited significant (P < 0.05) association with eight phenotypic traits, with the explained phenotypic variation ranging from 14.90% to 36.03%. The construction of fingerprints for C. praecox varieties (lines) was accomplished by utilizing eleven primer pairs with the highest polymorphic information content, resulting in the analysis of 175 SSR markers. The present study offers a thorough examination of the genetic diversity and SSR molecular markers of C. praecox in Yanling, and establishes a fundamental germplasm repository of C. praecox, thereby furnishing theoretical underpinnings for the selection and cultivation of novel and superior C. praecox varieties, varietal identification, and resource preservation and exploitation.


الموضوعات
Bayes Theorem , Biomarkers , Phenotype , Cluster Analysis , Genetic Variation
3.
Braz. j. biol ; 84: e248656, 2024. tab, graf
مقالة ي الانجليزية | LILACS, VETINDEX | ID: biblio-1345542

الملخص

Abstract Several species of Cichla successfully colonized lakes and reservoirs of Brazil, since the 1960's, causing serious damage to local wildlife. In this study, 135 peacock bass were collected in a reservoir complex in order to identify if they represented a single dominant species or multiple ones, as several Cichla species have been reported in the basin. Specimens were identified by color pattern, morphometric and meristic data, and using mitochondrial markers COI, 16S rDNA and Control Region (CR). Overlapping morphological data and similar coloration patterns prevented their identification using the taxonomic keys to species identification available in the literature. However, Bayesian and maximum likelihood from sequencing data demonstrated the occurrence of a single species, Cichla kelberi. A single haplotype was observed for the 16S and CR, while three were detected for COI, with a dominant haplotype present in 98.5% of the samples. The extreme low diversity of the transplanted C. kelberi evidenced a limited number of founding maternal lineages. The success of this colonization seems to rely mainly on abiotic factors, such as increased water transparency of lentic environments that favor visual predators that along with the absence of predators, have made C. kelberi a successful invader of these reservoirs.


Resumo Muitas espécies de Cichla colonizaram com sucesso lagos e reservatórios do Brasil desde os anos 1960, causando graves prejuízos à vida selvagem nesses locais. Neste estudo, 135 tucunarés foram coletados em um complexo de reservatórios a fim de identificar se representavam uma espécie dominante ou múltiplas espécies, uma vez que diversas espécies de Cichla foram registradas na bacia. Os espécimes foram identificados com base na coloração, dados morfométricos e merísticos, e por marcadores mitocondriais COI, 16S rDNA e Região Controle (RC). A sobreposição dos dados morfométricos e o padrão similar de coloração impediram a identificação utilizando as chaves de identificação disponíveis na literatura. Entretanto, as análises bayesiana e de máxima verossimilhança de dados moleculares demonstraram a ocorrência de uma única espécie, Cichla kelberi. Um único haplótipo foi observado para o 16S e RC, enquanto três foram detectados para o COI, com um haplótipo dominante presente em 98,5% das amostras. A baixa diversidade nos exemplares introduzidos de C. kelberi evidenciou um número limitado de linhagens maternas fundadoras. O sucesso da invasão parece depender de fatores abióticos, como a maior transparência da água de ambientes lênticos que favorece predadores visuais que, atrelado à ausência de predadores, fez do C. kelberi um invasor bem-sucedido nesses reservatórios.


الموضوعات
Animals , Cichlids/genetics , Phylogeny , Genetic Variation/genetics , Haplotypes/genetics , Lakes , Bayes Theorem
4.
Psico USF ; 28(4): 685-696, Oct.-Dec. 2023. ilus, tab
مقالة ي الانجليزية | LILACS, INDEXPSI | ID: biblio-1529170

الملخص

Nonparametric procedures are used to add flexibility to models. Three nonparametric item response models have been proposed, but not directly compared: the Kernel smoothing (KS-IRT); the Davidian-Curve (DC-IRT); and the Bayesian semiparametric Rasch model (SP-Rasch). The main aim of the present study is to compare the performance of these procedures in recovering simulated true scores, using sum scores as benchmarks. The secondary aim is to compare their performances in terms of practical equivalence with real data. Overall, the results show that, apart from the DC-IRT, which is the model that performs the worse, all the other models give results quite similar to those when sum scores are used. These results are followed by a discussion with practical implications and recommendations for future studies.(AU)


Procedimentos não paramétricos são usados para adicionar flexibilidade aos modelos. Três modelos não paramétricos de resposta ao item foram propostos, mas não comparados diretamente: o Kernel smoothing (KS-IRT); a Curva Davidiana (DC-IRT); e o modelo semiparamétrico Rasch Bayesiano (SP-Rasch). O objetivo principal do presente estudo é comparar o desempenho desses procedimentos na recuperação de escores verdadeiros simulados, utilizando escores de soma como benchmarks. O objetivo secundário é comparar seus desempenhos em termos de equivalência prática com dados reais. De forma geral, os resultados mostram que, além do DC-IRT, que é o modelo que apresenta o pior desempenho, todos os outros modelos apresentam resultados bastante semelhantes aos de quando se usam somatórios. Esses resultados são seguidos de uma discussão com implicações práticas e recomendações para estudos futuros.(AU)


Se utilizan procedimientos no paramétricos para agregar flexibilidad a los modelos. Se propusieron tres modelos de respuesta al ítem no paramétricos, pero no se compararon directamente: Kernel smoothing (KS-IRT); la curva davidiana (DC-IRT); y el modelo bayesiano de Rasch semiparamétrico (SP-Rasch). El objetivo principal del presente estudio es comparar el desempeño de estos procedimientos en la recuperación de puntajes verdaderos simulados, utilizando puntajes de suma como puntos de referencia. El objetivo secundario es comparar su desempeño en términos de equivalencia práctica con datos reales. En general, los resultados muestran que, a excepción de DC-IRT, que es el modelo con peor desempeño, todos los otros modelos presentan resultados bastante similares a los obtenidos cuando se utilizan sumatorios. Estos resultados son seguidos por una discusión con implicaciones prácticas y recomendaciones para estudios futuros.(AU)


الموضوعات
Statistics as Topic , Monte Carlo Method , Models, Statistical , Bayes Theorem , Statistics, Nonparametric , Correlation of Data
5.
Actual. psicol. (Impr.) ; 37(134): 117-133, Jan.-Jun. 2023. tab, graf
مقالة ي الانجليزية | LILACS, SaludCR | ID: biblio-1556772

الملخص

Abstract. Objetive. Attributional theory has been widely studied to understand the overall perceptions regarding people suffering from negative events such as an HIV infection. The aim of the present study is to test the overall attribution model and its influence on the willingness to help, considering emotional reactions related to an HIV-infected individual. Method. We used a Bayesian network to analyze the association between attributions of causality (blame, responsibility, and control), willingness to help, and emotional reactions (anger and sympathy) toward an HIV-infected patient. Three hundred and fifty-eight individuals participated in the study. Results. Using the overall model, we found two different results: Anger contributed to the cognitive processes of attribution, and sympathy contributed to the behavioral willingness to help the patient.


Resumo. Objetivo. A teoria de atribuição de causalidade tem sido amplamente estudada para compreender percepções a respeito de pessoas que sofrem o impacto de eventos negativos em saúde como uma infecção por HIV. O objetivo deste estudo é testar o modelo de atribuição e seu impacto em intenção de ajudar, considerando as reações emocionais direcionadas à um indivíduo que vive com HIV. Método. Utilizamos um panorama bayesiano para analisar a associação entre atribuições de causalidade (culpa, responsabilidade e controle), intenção de ajudar e reações emocionais (raiva e simpatia) no que diz respeito a um paciente com HIV. Trezentos e cinquenta e oito indivíduos participaram deste estudo. Resultados. A partir do modelo utilizado, encontramos dois resultados diferentes: raiva contribuiu ao processo cognitivo de atribuição e a emoção simpatia contribuiu ao processo comportamental de intenção de ajudar.


الموضوعات
Humans , Male , Female , Adult , Prejudice , Self Concept , HIV , Psychology, Social , Bayes Theorem
6.
Chinese Medical Journal ; (24): 1413-1421, 2023.
مقالة ي الانجليزية | WPRIM | ID: wpr-980919

الملخص

BACKGROUND@#Large disparities exist in liver cancer burden trends across countries but are poorly understood. We aimed to investigate the global trajectories of liver cancer burden, explore the driving forces, and predict future trends.@*METHODS@#Data on the liver cancer burden in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) trajectories were defined using growth mixture models. Five major risk factors contributing to changes in the ASIR or ASMR and socioeconomic determinants were explored using the identified trajectories. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict future trends through 2035.@*RESULTS@#Three trajectories of liver cancer burden were identified: increasing, stable, and decreasing groups. Almost half of the American countries were classified in the decreasing group (48.6% for ASIR and ASMR), and the increasing group was the most common in the European region (ASIR, 49.1%; ASMR, 37.7%). In the decreasing group, the decrease of liver cancer due to hepatitis B contributed 63.4% and 60.4% of the total decreases in ASIR and ASMR, respectively. The increase of liver cancer due to alcohol use, hepatitis C, and hepatitis B contributed the most to the increase in the increasing group (30.8%, 31.1%, and 24.2% for ASIR; 33.7%, 30.2%, and 22.2% for ASMR, respectively). The increasing group was associated with a higher sociodemographic index, gross domestic product per capita, health expenditure per capita, and universal health coverage (all P <0.05). Significant variations in disease burden are predicted to continue through 2035, with a disproportionate burden in the decreasing group.@*CONCLUSION@#Global disparities were observed in liver cancer burden trajectories. Hepatitis B, alcohol use, and hepatitis C were identified as driving forces in different regions.


الموضوعات
Humans , Bayes Theorem , Liver Neoplasms , Risk Factors , Hepatitis C/complications , Hepatitis B , Hepacivirus , Incidence
7.
مقالة ي الانجليزية | WPRIM | ID: wpr-981056

الملخص

OBJECTIVE@#This study aimed to examine the trends in stroke mortality among young and middle-aged adults in China.@*METHODS@#Data were obtained from the China national vital registration system. Significant changes in mortality were assessed by Joinpoint regression. Age-period-cohort analysis was used to explain the reasons for the changes. Future mortality and counts were predicted by the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.@*RESULTS@#Between 2002 and 2019, a total of 6,253,951 stroke mortality in young and middle-aged adults were recorded. The age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) of women showed a downward trend. The annual percent changes (APC) were -3.5% (-5.2%, -1.7%) for urban women and -2.8% (-3.7%, -1.9%) for rural women. By contrast, the AAMRs per 100,000 for rural men aged 25-44 years continued to rise from 9.40 to 15.46. The AAMRS for urban men aged 25-44 years and urban and rural men aged 45-64 years did not change significantly. Between 2020 and 2030, the projected stroke deaths are 1,423,584 in men and 401,712 in women.@*CONCLUSION@#Significant sex and age disparities in the trends of stroke mortality among young and middle-aged adults were identified in China. Targeted health policy measures are needed to address the burden of stroke in the young generation, especially for rural men, with a focus on the prevention and management of high risk factors.


الموضوعات
Middle Aged , Male , Adult , Humans , Female , Bayes Theorem , Urban Population , Stroke/epidemiology , Cohort Studies , China/epidemiology , Mortality
8.
مقالة ي الانجليزية | WPRIM | ID: wpr-981070

الملخص

OBJECTIVE@#The mode of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission via injection drug use (IDU) still exists, and the recent shift in IDU-related transmission of HIV infection is largely unknown. The purpose of this study was to analyze the spatiotemporal sources and dynamics of HIV-1 transmission through IDU in Guangxi.@*METHODS@#We performed a molecular epidemiological investigation of infections across Guangxi from 2009 to 2019. Phylogenetic and Bayesian time-geographic analyses of HIV-1 sequences were performed to confirm the characteristics of transmission between IDUs in combination with epidemiological data.@*RESULTS@#Among the 535 subjects, CRF08_BC (57.4%), CRF01_AE (28.4%), and CRF07_BC (10.7%) were the top 3 HIV strains; 72.6% of infections were linked to other provinces in the transmission network; 93.6% of sequence-transmitted strains were locally endemic, with the rest coming from other provinces, predominantly Guangdong and Yunnan; 92.1% of the HIV transmission among people who inject drugs tended to be transmitted between HIV-positive IDUs.@*CONCLUSION@#HIV recombinants were high diversity, and circulating local strains were the transmission sources among IDUs in Guangxi. However, there were still cases of IDUs linked to other provinces. Coverage of traditional prevention strategies should be expanded, and inter-provincial collaboration between Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong provinces should be strengthened.


الموضوعات
Humans , HIV-1/genetics , HIV Infections , Drug Users , Phylogeny , Bayes Theorem , China/epidemiology , Genotype
9.
مقالة ي الانجليزية | WPRIM | ID: wpr-981095

الملخص

OBJECTIVE@#We aimed to assess the feasibility and superiority of machine learning (ML) methods to predict the risk of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events (MACEs) in chest pain patients with NSTE-ACS.@*METHODS@#Enrolled chest pain patients were from two centers, Beijing Anzhen Emergency Chest Pain Center Beijing Bo'ai Hospital, China Rehabilitation Research Center. Five classifiers were used to develop ML models. Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F-Measure and AUC were used to assess the model performance and prediction effect compared with HEART risk scoring system. Ultimately, ML model constructed by Naïve Bayes was employed to predict the occurrence of MACEs.@*RESULTS@#According to learning metrics, ML models constructed by different classifiers were superior over HEART (History, ECG, Age, Risk factors, & Troponin) scoring system when predicting acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and all-cause death. However, according to ROC curves and AUC, ML model constructed by different classifiers performed better than HEART scoring system only in prediction for AMI. Among the five ML algorithms, Linear support vector machine (SVC), Naïve Bayes and Logistic regression classifiers stood out with all Accuracy, Precision, Recall and F-Measure from 0.8 to 1.0 for predicting any event, AMI, revascularization and all-cause death ( vs. HEART ≤ 0.78), with AUC from 0.88 to 0.98 for predicting any event, AMI and revascularization ( vs. HEART ≤ 0.85). ML model developed by Naïve Bayes predicted that suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS), abnormal electrocardiogram (ECG), elevated hs-cTn I, sex and smoking were risk factors of MACEs.@*CONCLUSION@#Compared with HEART risk scoring system, the superiority of ML method was demonstrated when employing Linear SVC classifier, Naïve Bayes and Logistic. ML method could be a promising method to predict MACEs in chest pain patients with NSTE-ACS.


الموضوعات
Humans , Acute Coronary Syndrome/epidemiology , Bayes Theorem , Feasibility Studies , Risk Assessment/methods , Chest Pain/etiology , Myocardial Infarction/diagnosis
10.
مقالة ي صينى | WPRIM | ID: wpr-981376

الملخص

In Zherong county, Fujian province, the black spot of Pseudostellaria heterophylla often breaks out in the rainy season from April to June every year. As one of the main leaf diseases of P. heterophylla, black spot seriously affects the yield and quality of the medicinal material. To identify and characterize the pathogens causing black spot, we isolated the pathogens, identified them as a species of Alternaria according to Koch's postulates, and then tested their pathogenicity and biological characteristics. The results showed that the pathogens causing P. heterophylla black spot were A. gaisen, as evidenced by the similar colony morphology, spore characteristics, sporulation phenotype, and the same clade with A. gaisen on the phylogenetic tree(the maximum likelihood support rate of 100% and the Bayesian posterior probability of 1.00) built based on the tandem sequences of ITS, tef1, gapdh, endoPG, Alta1, OPA10-2, and KOG1077. The optimum conditions for mycelial growth of the pathogen were 25 ℃, pH 5-8, and 24 h dark culture. The lethal conditions for mycelia and spores were both treatment at 50 ℃ for 10 min. We reported for the first time the A. gaisen-caused black spot of P. heterophylla. The results could provide a theoretical basis for the diagnosis and control of P. heterophylla leaf spot diseases.


الموضوعات
Bayes Theorem , Phylogeny , Caryophyllaceae , Alternaria , Mycelium
11.
مقالة ي صينى | WPRIM | ID: wpr-970519

الملخص

This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of Chinese patent medicines containing Hirudo in the treatment of atherosclerosis(AS) by network Meta-analysis, and to provide evidence-based reference for clinical treatment of AS. The clinical randomized controlled trial(RCT) on the treatment of atherosclerosis with Chinese patent medicines containing Hirudo were searched in CNKI, Wanfang, VIP, SinoMed, PubMed and EMbase from the establishment of the databases to July 1, 2022. And data extraction and quality assessment of the included RCT was performed according to the Cochrane standards. Stata 17 and ADDIS 1.16.5 were then used for Bayesian model network Meta-analysis. Finally, 67 RCTs with a total sample size of 6 826 cases were included, 3 569 cases in the experimental group and 3 257 cases in the control group, involving three oral Chinese patent medicines. Network Meta-analysis showed that in terms of reducing intima-media thickness(IMT), the top three Chinese patent medicines were Tongxinluo Capsules+sta-tins>Maixuekang Capsules+statins>Maixuekang Capsules. In terms of reducing plaque area, the top one was Maixuekang Capsules+sta-tins, and the other Chinese patent medicines had similar efficacy. For lowering AS Crouse scores, the top three were Maixuekang Capsules>Tongxinluo Capsules+statins>Naoxintong Capsules. For decreasing plaque number, the top three were Naoxintong Capsules+sta-tins>Tongxinluo Capsules+statins>Tongxinluo Capsules. With regard to adverse reactions/events, Naoxintong Capsules+statins had the lo-west incidence. In conclusion, in Chinese patent medicines containing Hirudo for the treatment of AS, Tongxinluo Capsules+statins, Maixuekang Capsules, Maixuekang Capsules+statins, and Naoxintong Capsules+statins were the primary choices to reduce IMT, AS Crouse scores, plaque area, and plaque number, respectively. The efficacy of Chinese patent medicines containing Hirudo with or without statins was more significant than that of statins alone in the four outcome indexes. Additionally, the treatment of AS should be evaluated comprehensively, and attention should be paid to Chinese patent medicines or their combination with western medicine, to optimize the treatment effect and minimize adverse reactions as the benchmark.


الموضوعات
Humans , Network Meta-Analysis , Nonprescription Drugs/therapeutic use , Capsules , Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors , Bayes Theorem , Carotid Intima-Media Thickness , Drugs, Chinese Herbal/therapeutic use , Atherosclerosis/drug therapy , Medicine, Chinese Traditional
12.
مقالة ي صينى | WPRIM | ID: wpr-970553

الملخص

In the digital transformation of Chinese pharmaceutical industry, how to efficiently govern and analyze industrial data and excavate the valuable information contained therein to guide the production of drug products has always been a research hotspot and application difficulty. Generally, the Chinese pharmaceutical technique is relatively extensive, and the consistency of drug quality needs to be improved. To address this problem, we proposed an optimization method combining advanced calculation tools(e.g., Bayesian network, convolutional neural network, and Pareto multi-objective optimization algorithm) with lean six sigma tools(e.g., Shewhart control chart and process performance index) to dig deeply into historical industrial data and guide the continuous improvement of pharmaceutical processes. Further, we employed this strategy to optimize the manufacturing process of sporoderm-removal Ganoderma lucidum spore powder. After optimization, we preliminarily obtained the possible interval combination of critical parameters to ensure the P_(pk) values of the critical quality properties including moisture, fineness, crude polysaccharide, and total triterpenes of the sporoderm-removal G. lucidum spore powder to be no less than 1.33. The results indicate that the proposed strategy has an industrial application value.


الموضوعات
Bayes Theorem , Data Mining , Drug Industry , Powders , Reishi , Spores, Fungal
13.
Neuroscience Bulletin ; (6): 125-137, 2023.
مقالة ي الانجليزية | WPRIM | ID: wpr-971542

الملخص

Accurate self-motion perception, which is critical for organisms to survive, is a process involving multiple sensory cues. The two most powerful cues are visual (optic flow) and vestibular (inertial motion). Psychophysical studies have indicated that humans and nonhuman primates integrate the two cues to improve the estimation of self-motion direction, often in a statistically Bayesian-optimal way. In the last decade, single-unit recordings in awake, behaving animals have provided valuable neurophysiological data with a high spatial and temporal resolution, giving insight into possible neural mechanisms underlying multisensory self-motion perception. Here, we review these findings, along with new evidence from the most recent studies focusing on the temporal dynamics of signals in different modalities. We show that, in light of new data, conventional thoughts about the cortical mechanisms underlying visuo-vestibular integration for linear self-motion are challenged. We propose that different temporal component signals may mediate different functions, a possibility that requires future studies.


الموضوعات
Animals , Humans , Motion Perception/physiology , Bayes Theorem , Optic Flow , Cues , Vestibule, Labyrinth/physiology , Photic Stimulation , Visual Perception/physiology
14.
مقالة ي صينى | WPRIM | ID: wpr-985459

الملخص

Objective: The direction and intensity of population aging on the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed, and the burden of NCDs in 2050 was predicted. Methods: The disease-specific disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study.The differences in indicators from 1990 to 2019 were attributed to the contribution of age structure, population size, and all other causes. The Bayesian age-time-cohort models were used to predict DALYs from NCDs to 2050. Results: The absolute level of DALYs caused by NCDs increased by 7.460 million from 1990 to 2019, and the age structure contributed 186.0% (95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs): 178.4%-193.6%), population size contributed 77.0% (95% UIs: 69.5%-80.8%), all other causes contributed -163.0% (95% UIs:-163.1%- -159.3%). DALYs caused by NCDs consist of 2.527 million YLLs and 4.934 million YLDs, in which the contribution of age structure to YLLs and YLDs was 414.6% (95% UIs: 396.2%-432.5%) and 69.1% (95% UIs: 66.7%-71.4%), respectively. From 2019 to 2050, the diseases with increased DALYs due to changes in age structure are cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, chronic respiratory diseases, neurological disorders, sense organ diseases, diabetes and kidney diseases, musculoskeletal disorders, digestive diseases, mental disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases in descending order. Conclusions: From 1990 to 2019, except for skin and subcutaneous diseases, the burden of other NCDs attributable to population aging increased, mainly due to disability. By 2050, the burden of NCDsattributable to population aging will continue to rise.


الموضوعات
Humans , Life Expectancy , Quality-Adjusted Life Years , Noncommunicable Diseases/epidemiology , Bayes Theorem , Global Health , China/epidemiology , Aging , Global Burden of Disease
15.
مقالة ي صينى | WPRIM | ID: wpr-985514

الملخص

Objectives: To study the association between metals mixture exposure and DNA oxidative damage using mixture analysis methods, and to explore the most significant exposure factors that cause DNA oxidative damage. Methods: Workers from steel enterprises were recruited in Shandong Province. Urinary metals were measured by using the inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry method. The level of urinary 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG) was determined by using the ultra-high performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry method. Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR), elastic net regression and quantile g-computation regression were used to analyze the association between urinary metals and urinary 8-OHdG. Results: A total of 768 subjects aged (36.15±7.40) years old were included in the study. BKMR, elastic net regression and quantile g-computation all revealed an overall positive association between the mixture concentration and increased urinary 8-OHdG. The quantile g-computation results showed that with a 25% increase in metal mixtures, the urinary 8-OHdG level increased by 77.60%. The elastic net regression showed that with a 25% increase in exposure risk score, the urinary 8-OHdG level increased by 26%. The BKMR summarized the contribution of individual exposures to the response, and selenium, zinc, and nickel were significant contributors to the urinary 8-OHdG elevation. Conclusion: Exposure to mixed metals causes elevated levels of DNA oxidative damage, and selenium, zinc, and nickel are significant exposure factors.


الموضوعات
Humans , Adult , Nickel/toxicity , Selenium , Bayes Theorem , Metals/toxicity , 8-Hydroxy-2'-Deoxyguanosine , Oxidative Stress/physiology , Zinc , DNA Damage
16.
مقالة ي صينى | WPRIM | ID: wpr-981401

الملخص

The odor fingerprint of Pollygonati Rhizoma samples with different mildewing degrees was analyzed and the relationship between the odor variation and the mildewing degree was explored. A fast discriminant model was established according to the response intensity of electronic nose. The α-FOX3000 electronic nose was applied to analyze the odor fingerprint of Pollygonati Rhizoma samples with different mildewing degrees and the radar map was used to analyze the main contributors among the volatile organic compounds. The feature data were processed and analyzed by partial least squares discriminant analysis(PLS-DA), K-nearest neighbor(KNN), sequential minimal optimization(SMO), random forest(RF) and naive Bayes(NB), respectively. According to the radar map of the electronic nose, the response values of three sensors, namely T70/2, T30/1, and P10/2, increased with the mildewing, indicating that the Pollygonati Rhizoma produced alkanes and aromatic compounds after the mildewing. According to PLS-DA model, Pollygonati Rhizoma samples of three mildewing degrees could be well distinguished in three areas. Afterwards, the variable importance analysis of the sensors was carried out and then five sensors that contributed a lot to the classification were screened out: T70/2, T30/1, PA/2, P10/1 and P40/1. The classification accuracy of all the four models(KNN, SMO, RF, and NB) was above 90%, and KNN was most accurate(accuracy: 97.2%). Different volatile organic compounds were produced after the mildewing of Pollygonati Rhizoma, and they could be detected by electronic nose, which laid a foundation for the establishment of a rapid discrimination model for mildewed Pollygonati Rhizoma. This paper shed lights on further research on change pattern and quick detection of volatile organic compounds in moldy Chinese herbal medicines.


الموضوعات
Electronic Nose , Odorants/analysis , Volatile Organic Compounds/analysis , Bayes Theorem , Drugs, Chinese Herbal/analysis , Discriminant Analysis
17.
مقالة ي صينى | WPRIM | ID: wpr-981495

الملخص

This study aimed to systematically evaluate the efficacy and safety of different Chinese patent medicines in the treatment of idiopathic membranous nephropathy. The relevant randomized controlled trial(RCT) was retrieved from PubMed, EMbase, Cochrane Library, CNKI, SinoMed, Wanfang, and VIP with the time interval from database inception to December 2022. The Cochrane risk of bias assessment tool was employed to evaluate the quality of the included RCT, and Stata 15.0 and GEMTC to perform the Bayesian network Meta-analysis. Finally, 51 RCTs were included, involving 9 Chinese patent medicines and 3 591 patients. The results of network Meta-analysis showed that in terms of the total effective rate and the increase in plasma albumin, the top three interventions were Zhengqing Fengtongning Sustained Release Tablets + conventional western medicine, Bailing Capsules + conventional western medicine, and Tripterygium Glycosides Tablets + conventional western medicine. In terms of reducing 24-hour urine total protein, the top three interventions were Zhengqing Fengtongning Sustained Release Tablets + conventional western medicine, Shenfukang Capsules +conventional western medicine, and Huangkui Capsules + conventional western medicine. In terms of reducing serum creatinine, the top three interventions were Shenfukang Capsules + conventional western medicine, Bailing Capsules + conventional western medicine, and Zhengqing Fengtongning Sustained Release Tablets + conventional western medicine. In terms of safety, Chinese patent medicines combined with conventional western medicine had fewer adverse reactions than the control group. The results suggest that Chinese patent medicines combined with conventional western medicine can improve the therapeutic effect on idiopathic membranous nephropathy, and differentiated medications can be adopted according to the specific symptoms of patients in clinical treatment. Further validation needs to be carried out in the future with multi-center, large-sample, and high-quality RCT.


الموضوعات
Humans , Nonprescription Drugs/therapeutic use , Network Meta-Analysis , Glomerulonephritis, Membranous/drug therapy , Bayes Theorem , Capsules , Delayed-Action Preparations , Drugs, Chinese Herbal/adverse effects , Tablets
18.
مقالة ي صينى | WPRIM | ID: wpr-981540

الملخص

The method of using deep learning technology to realize automatic sleep staging needs a lot of data support, and its computational complexity is also high. In this paper, an automatic sleep staging method based on power spectral density (PSD) and random forest is proposed. Firstly, the PSDs of six characteristic waves (K complex wave, δ wave, θ wave, α wave, spindle wave, β wave) in electroencephalogram (EEG) signals were extracted as the classification features, and then five sleep states (W, N1, N2, N3, REM) were automatically classified by random forest classifier. The whole night sleep EEG data of healthy subjects in the Sleep-EDF database were used as experimental data. The effects of using different EEG signals (Fpz-Cz single channel, Pz-Oz single channel, Fpz-Cz + Pz-Oz dual channel), different classifiers (random forest, adaptive boost, gradient boost, Gaussian naïve Bayes, decision tree, K-nearest neighbor), and different training and test set divisions (2-fold cross-validation, 5-fold cross-validation, 10-fold cross-validation, single subject) on the classification effect were compared. The experimental results showed that the effect was the best when the input was Pz-Oz single-channel EEG signal and the random forest classifier was used, no matter how the training set and test set were transformed, the classification accuracy was above 90.79%. The overall classification accuracy, macro average F1 value, and Kappa coefficient could reach 91.94%, 73.2% and 0.845 respectively at the highest, which proved that this method was effective and not susceptible to data volume, and had good stability. Compared with the existing research, our method is more accurate and simpler, and is suitable for automation.


الموضوعات
Humans , Random Forest , Bayes Theorem , Sleep Stages , Sleep , Electroencephalography/methods
19.
مقالة ي صينى | WPRIM | ID: wpr-981562

الملخص

The recurrent neural network architecture improves the processing ability of time-series data. However, issues such as exploding gradients and poor feature extraction limit its application in the automatic diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI). This paper proposed a research approach for building an MCI diagnostic model using a Bayesian-optimized bidirectional long short-term memory network (BO-BiLSTM) to address this problem. The diagnostic model was based on a Bayesian algorithm and combined prior distribution and posterior probability results to optimize the BO-BiLSTM network hyperparameters. It also used multiple feature quantities that fully reflected the cognitive state of the MCI brain, such as power spectral density, fuzzy entropy, and multifractal spectrum, as the input of the diagnostic model to achieve automatic MCI diagnosis. The results showed that the feature-fused Bayesian-optimized BiLSTM network model achieved an MCI diagnostic accuracy of 98.64% and effectively completed the diagnostic assessment of MCI. In conclusion, based on this optimization, the long short-term neural network model has achieved automatic diagnostic assessment of MCI, providing a new diagnostic model for intelligent diagnosis of MCI.


الموضوعات
Humans , Bayes Theorem , Neural Networks, Computer , Algorithms , Brain , Cognitive Dysfunction/diagnosis
20.
Chinese Journal of Pediatrics ; (12): 418-424, 2023.
مقالة ي صينى | WPRIM | ID: wpr-985885

الملخص

Objective: To investigate the influence of sleep fragmentation in infancy and toddler period on emotional and behavioral problems at the age of 6 years. Methods: Using a prospective cohort design, 262 children were extracted from mother-child birth cohort recruited from May 2012 to July 2013 in Renji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University. Children's sleep and physical activities were assessed using actigraphy at 6, 12, 18, 24, and 36 months of age, from which the sleep fragmentation index (FI) at each follow-up point was calculated. Children's emotional and behavioral problems at 6 years of age were assessed using the strengths and difficulties questionnaire. Group-based trajectory model was applied to determine sleep FI in infancy and toddler period trajectory groups with Bayesian information criteria being used to determine the best fitting model. Children's emotional and behavioral problems between groups were examined with independent t test and linear regression models, etc. Results: A total of 177 children, with 91 boys and 86 girls, were included in the final analysis and were divided into 2 groups: high FI group (n=30) and low FI group (n=147). Compared with children in the low FI group, those in the high FI group presents with higher total difficulties score and higher hyperactivity or inattention score ((11.0±4.9) vs. (8.9±4.1), (4.9±2.7) vs. (3.7±2.3) scores, t=2.17, 2.23, both P<0.05, respectively), with the differences remaining significant after adjusting for covariates (t=2.08, 2.09, both P<0.05 respectively). Conclusion: High sleep fragmentation in infancy and toddler period is associated with more emotional and behavioral problems, especially hyperactivity or inattention problems, at 6 years of age.


الموضوعات
Male , Female , Humans , Infant , Child, Preschool , Child , Cohort Studies , Problem Behavior/psychology , Sleep Deprivation , Prospective Studies , Bayes Theorem , China , Surveys and Questionnaires
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