RESUMEN
Objective To understand the changing trend of Internet outpatient visits in public hospitals,and provide support for the development planning of Internet hospitals.Methods Using the data of Internet outpatient visits in a public hos-pital from January 2021 to June 2023,the ARIMA model and GM(1,1)model were constructed respectively.The mean absolute error(MAE)and root mean square error(RMSE)were used to evaluate the fitting effect,and the Internet outpatient visits from July to December 2023 were predicted based on the dominance model.Results ARIMA(1,2,1)model and GM(1,1)model were used to predict the number of return visits of Internet outpatient service.The average absolute errors were 369.86 and 978.84,and the root-mean-square errors were 479.49 and 1444.83,respectively.The ARIMA(0,1,0)model and GM(1,1)model were used to predict the number of Internet outpatient consultations.The average absolute errors were 297.23 and 369.62,and the root-mean-square errors were 413.61 and 496.30,respectively,indicating that the ARIMA model has a good prediction effect.The forecast results show that the predicted value of Internet outpatient visits in December 2023 is 14,831 cases,and the predicted value of consultation visits is 7461 cases.Conclusion The number of Internet outpatient visits in a public hospital will continue to rise from 2021 to 2023.Therefore,hospitals should fully realize the importance of Internet medical services,take ac-tive measures to continuously optimize the medical service model,and provide patients with high-quality,efficient and convenient Internet medical services.
RESUMEN
Objective To investigate the changing trend of the current situation of Internet-based oncology outpatient treatment and provide support for the development and management of Internet hospitals.Methods The ARIMA and GM(1,1)models were constructed based on the Internet-based outpatient data of a cancer hospital from January 2021 to June 2023,and the fitting effect was evaluated by mean absolute error(MAE)and root mean square error(RMSE).Based on the model,the pro-portion of Internet-based outpatient visits and the offline outpatient visits were predicted from July to December 2023.Results ARIMA(1,1,2)and GM(1,1)models were used to predict the proportion of Internet-based outpatient visits.The average abso-lute errors were 2.06%and 2.41%,and the root-mean-square errors were 3.01%and 3.17%,respectively.The ARIMA(0,1,1)and GM(1,1)models were used to predict the proportion of Internet-based outpatient visits to the offline outpatient visits,with the rate of the average absolute errors of 0.58%and 1.08%,respectively,and the rate of the root mean square errors 0.75%and 1.31%,respectively.The figures indicated that the ARIMA model had a better prediction effect.The forecast results showed that the predicted value of Internet outpatient service in December 2023 was 90.35%,and the predicted value of Internet-based outpatient service accounted for 16.46%of the offline outpatient service.Conclusion In 2021-2023,the proportion of Inter-net-based outpatient visits in the cancer hospital showed a steady trend,and the proportion of Internet outpatient visits in the off-line outpatient visits showed a rising trend.Therefore,hospitals need to establish a continuous monitoring mechanism,constantly adjust management strategies and measures to meet the needs of patients and continue to promote the high-quality development of Internet-based medical services.