Time Series Analysis of COVID-19 Data- A study from Northern India

The continuing new Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has caused millions of infections and thousands of fatalities globally. Identification of potential infection cases and the rate of virus propagation is crucial for early healthcare service planning to prevent fatalities. The research community is faced with the analytical and difficult real-world task of accurately predicting the spread of COVID-19. We obtained COVID-19 temporal data from District Surveillance Officer IDSP, Dehradun cum District Nodal Officer- Covid-19 under CMO, Department of Medical Health and Family Welfare, Government of Uttarakhand State, India, for the period, March 17, 2020, to May 6, 2022, and applied single exponential method forecasting model to estimate the COVID-19 outbreak's future course. The root relative squared error, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, and mean absolute error were used to assess the model's effectiveness. According to our prediction, 5438 people are subjected to hospitalization by September 2022, assuming that COVID cases will increase in the future and take on a lethal variety, as was the case with the second wave. The outcomes of the forecasting can be utilized by the government to devise strategies to stop the virus's spread.

Effect of shilajit on the heart of Daphnia: A preliminary study.

Shilajit is a mineral-rich complex organic compound used in the traditional system of Ayurvedic medicine for treating hypertension and improving the cardiac function with many herbomineral preparations. However, very little experimental evidence is available about its effect on the cardiac function. We used Daphnia as a model organism for observing the effect of shilajit on its heart due to its myogenic properties and its response to number of cardioactive drugs that are known to affect human heart function. Genome of Daphnia shows the strongest homology with the human genome. These characteristics of Daphnia make it an ideal organism for biomedical research. Our results suggest that this complex organic compound lowers the heart beats as its concentration increases from 1.0 to 100 ppm. The beats come to near normal condition at 1000 ppm. Above 1000 ppm, the beats are very fast and impossible to count. These results indicate a negative chronotropic effect on the Daphnia heart at low concentrations and a positive chronotropic effect to arrhythmia and fi nally failure at increasing higher concentrations of shilajit.

Multidisciplinary approach in the long-term management of intrahepatic stones: Indian experience.

BACKGROUND: Intrahepatic stones, though common in East Asia, are uncommon in India. There is paucity of data from India regarding the treatment and long-term outcome of patients with intrahepatic stones. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed medical records of 35 patients with intrahepatic stones who had been treated surgically. Endoscopic biliary drainage had been used in patients who presented with acute cholangitis. Intraoperative stone clearance was confirmed by choledochoscopy and intraoperative cholangiography. Outcome of surgery, frequency and subsequent management of recurrent intrahepatic stones, and factors associated with stone recurrence and cholangitis were analyzed. RESULTS: Twenty-one (60%) patients had bilobar disease. Eight patients underwent hepatectomy and 16 hepatico-jejunostomy with access loop; 12 of these were jejuno-duodenal anastomoses. Postoperative morbidity was observed in 10 patients (29%). Recurrence of stones occurred in 12 patients (34%) and cholangitis in 9 patients (26%). Presence of bilobar disease and associated biliary strictures were associated with recurrent cholangitis (p< 0.05). Two patients (6%) required re-operation for recurrent cholangitis. Complete removal of recurrent stones using conventional endoscope was possible through jejuno-duodenostomy in all 5 cases who had this type of access loop construction. CONCLUSION: Surgical treatment for intrahepatic stones depends on the site of involvement. Construction of a jejuno-duodenal access loop in patients with bilobar disease and intrahepatic strictures is helpful in facilitating postoperative stone clearance. A multidisciplinary approach is beneficial especially when the disease is bilobar and recurrent in type.

Brunner's gland adenoma with circumferential duodenal involvement.

Brunner's gland adenoma is a benign tumor of the duodenum. We report a 58-year-old man who presented with abdominal pain, vomiting and weight loss. The patient underwent Whipple resection along with lymph node clearance. The resected tumor, 4 cm long, showed hypertrophied Brunner's glands.

Treatment of peptic ulcer disease in the Helicobacter pylori era.

All patients with gastroduodenal ulcer disease should be tested and treated for Helicobacter pylori whether the ulcer is active or in remission. The rapid urease test, being the most commonly available, is the test of choice in our country. It is prudent to do H. pylori serology in the case of bleeding ulcers. Physicians should choose the regimen with the greatest efficacy regardless of costs. Bazzoli's low-dose triple therapy seems to be an excellent choice from our experience. Outside study protocols, routine checking for ulcer healing and eradication of H. pylori is recommended only for complicated ulcers. However, symptomatic patients need to be re-investigated with endoscopy and rapid urease test.

Compatibility problems after intravenous immunoglobulin--a case report.

Serious incompatibility was noted in a patient diagnosed as acute Guillain Barre syndrome treated with intravenous immunoglobulin. Patient had positive direct and indirect antiglobulin test and the auto control was negative. There was no clinical signs of hemolysis. Patient's blood group was O D positive and cross matched several units of ABO compatible D positive and D negative blood. Only one unit was compatible. These findings suggest that the particular intravenous immunoglobulin contained a mixture of saline and immune antibodies having different specificity. As the number of patients getting treated with intravenous immunoglobulin is on the rise more and more compatibility problems should be anticipated and should be borne in mind during serological testing and evaluation.