Résumé
Objective:To investigate the prognosis and influencing factors in critically ill surgical patients of different feeding intolerance trajectories.Methods:The retrospective cohort study was conducted. The clinical data of 354 critically ill surgical patients who were admitted to 69 medical centers in the Chinese Critical Care Nutrition Trials Group -NEED database from March 2018 to July 2019 were selected. There were 247 males and 107 females, aged 58(46,68)years. According to the trajectory model of feeding intolerance change, 354 patients were divided into 3 categories as feeding intolerance, decreased feeding intolerance, continuous feeding intolerance, including 164, 49, 141 cases respectively. Observation indicators: (1) general situations of patients of different feeding intolerance trajectories; (2) treatment of patients of different feeding intolerance trajectories; (3) survival of patients of different feeding intolerance trajectories; (4) analysis of pro-gnostic factors in critically ill surgical patients. Measurement data of normal distribution were expressed as Mean± SD, and one-way analysis of variance was used for comparison between groups. Measurement data of skewed distribution were expressed as M( Q1, Q3), and Kruskal-Wallis rank sum test was used for comparison between groups. Count data were expressed as absolute numbers or percentages, and chi-square test was used for comparison between groups. Ordinal data were compared using the Kruskal-Wallis rank sum test. Bonferroni correction was used for pairwise comparison. Group-based trajectory model was constructed according to Traj plug-in in Stata17.0 statistical software, and the optimal trajectory model was evaluated by Bayesian information criterion and average posterior probability parameter. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to draw the survival curve and calculate the survival rate, and Log-Rank test was used for survival analyses. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted using the COX proportional hazard regression model. Results:(1) General situations of patients of different feeding intolerance trajectories. Of 354 critically ill surgical patients, 257 cases underwent enteral nutrition and 97 cases underwent enteral plus parenteral nutrition. The acute physiological and chronic health score (APACHEII) was 17(13,21), and the sequential organ failure score (SOFA) was 6(5,8). The modified Critical Illness Nutritional risk score (mNUTRIC) was 4 (2,5), the number of complications was 2(1,3). There were 293, 55 and 6 patients with grade Ⅰ, grade Ⅱ and grade Ⅲ acute gastrointestinal injury (AGI), and there were 224, 17 and 61 patients who were treated with mechanical ventilation, continuous renal replacement therapy and vasoactive drugs, respectively. The incidence of feeding intolerance in 354 patients increased first and then decreased, reaching a peak of 25.42%(90/354) on the third day and 53.67%(190/354) within 7 days. Of 354 critically ill surgical patients, cases with no feeding intolerance, decreased feeding intolerance, continuous feeding intolerance had the APACHE Ⅱ as 16(12,20), 17(14,25), 18(13,22), mNUTRIC as 3(2,5), 4(3,6), 4(3,5), the number of complications as 2(1,2), 2(2,3), 2(2,3). There were 152, 27, 114 cases with grade Ⅰ AGI, 12, 22, 27 cases with grade Ⅱ-Ⅲ AGI, 95, 39, 90 cases with mechanical ventilation. There were significant differences in the above indicators among the three groups ( H=6.14, 13.11, 28.05, χ2=37.96, 7.65, P< 0.05). Further analysis showed that compared with patients with no feeding intolerance, patients with decreased feeding intolerance and continuous feeding intolerance had the higher number of complications and grade of AGI ( Z=60.32, 54.69, χ2=39.72, 9.52, P<0.05), patients with decreased feeding intolerance had the higher mNUTRIC scores and ratio of mechanical ventilation ( Z=53.41, χ2=7.59, P<0.05). (2) Treatment of patients of different feeding intolerance trajectories. Cases with prokinetic drugs use and post-pyloric feeding were 36, 13 of patients with no feeding intolerance, 25 and 10 of patients with decreased feeding intolerance, 46 and 19 of patients with continuous feeding intolerance, respectively, showing significant differences in the above indicators among the three groups ( χ2=15.76, 6.20, P<0.05). Further analysis showed that compared with patients with no feeding intolerance, patients with decreased feeding intolerance had higher ratio of prokinetic drugs use and ratio of post-pyloric feeding ( χ2=15.60, 6.10, P<0.05). (3) Survival of patients of different feeding intolerance trajectories. The 28-day overall survival rates of patients with no feeding intolerance, decreased feeding intolerance, and continued feeding intolerance were 96.96%, 95.92%, and 87.94%, respectively, showing a significant difference ( χ2=10.39, P<0.05). Further analysis showed a significant difference between patents with no feeding intolerance and patients with continuous feeding intolerance ( χ2=9.19, P<0.05). (4) Analysis of prognostic factors in critically ill surgical patients. Multivariate analysis showed that continuous feeding intolerance was an independent risk factor for 28-day death in critically ill surgical patients ( hazard ratio=3.92, 95% confidence interval as 1.43-10.79, P<0.05). Conclusion:For surgical critically ill patients, patients with continuous feeding intolerance have a higher 28-day mortality than patients with no feeding intolerance, and the continuous feeding intolerance is an independent risk factor for 28-day death in critically ill surgical patients.