Trend and gender difference of mortality rate of senile dementia： based on the method of annual percent change / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo investigate the characteristics of gender difference and the trend of the mortality rate of senile dementia in registered population in Shanghai from year 2002 to 2018， and to provide the basis for formulating relative intervention measures before and after senile dementia from an public-health view. MethodsBased on the collected data of death registration， focused on the senile dementia disease codes F03，G30.0，G30.1，G30.8，G30.9 according to The International Classification of Diseases 10th revision （ICD-10）. We analyzed the characteristics of gender difference in the mortality rate of senile dementia in registered population in Shanghai from year 2002 to 2018. According to ASR， we calculated the standardized mortality rate of senile dementia， and used the chi-square test to compare the difference between the gender mortality rates. The trend and the turning point of the mortality rate of senile dementia were determined by linear regression analysis by Join-point. ResultsThe crude mortality rate of senile dementia in the registered population in Shanghai from year 2002 to 2018 was 5.46/105， 3.50/105 in males and 7.43/105 in females. The standardized mortality rate of senile dementia was 2.61/105， 1.67/105 in males and 3.56/105 in females. The trend of the standardized mortality rate of senile dementia in 17 years decreased ［APC=-5.5（-6.5，-4.5）%，P<0.01］. The trend of the standardized mortality rate of senile dementia decreased in both males ［APC=-4.9（-6.2，-3.6）%，P<0.01］ and females ［APC=-5.9（-6.9，-4.9）%，P<0.01］. The trend of the gender difference decreased ［APC=-6.8（-8.2，-5.3）%，P<0.01］. The mortality rate of senile dementia was higher in females than in males ［（χ2=33.63，P<0.01）］. ConclusionThe mortality rate of senile dementia in females is higher than in males in Shanghai， though the trend of the gender difference decreased. This gender difference is worth of attention.

Dynamic relationship between changes of mortality rate and urban development level in Shanghai / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo analyze the dynamic response relationship between urban development and mortality rate in Shanghai， and to predict the trend of mortality rate changes. MethodsBy analyzing the total mortality rate （TMR）， gross domestic product （GDP） and socio-demographic index （SDI） in Shanghai from 1978 to 2017， a vector autoregressive （VAR） model was constructed to evaluate the impact of urban development on the mortality rate. ResultsThe fitted R2 of the VAR model was 0.92. The short-term effect of GDP on the improvement of death level was negative， while the long-term effect was positive， and the SDI was negative regardless of the short-term and long-term effects. By the tenth year， GDP and SDI contributed 10.61% and 27.25% to TMR changes， respectively. The model predicted that the mortality rate in Shanghai would be 9.17 per thousand by 2030. ConclusionLong-term economic growth can effectively promote a decline in population mortality. However， as the economy develops vigorously， the adverse effects of declining birth rates and population aging on population health during the era of high-level population development should not be ignored.