Analysis and prediction of thyroid cancer morbidity and mortality trends in China / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To analyze the morbidity and mortality trends of thyroid cancer in China from 1990 to 2019, explore the causes of the trends, and predict morbidity and mortality in the future. Methods: The morbidity and mortality data of thyroid cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease database. The Joinpoint regression model was used to describe the change trends. Based on the morbidity and mortality data from 2012 to 2019, a grey model GM (1,1) was constructed to predict the trends in the next ten years. The model was tested by the posterior error method and residual test method. Results: In all populations, men and women, the AAPC values of the crude morbidity rates were 4.15% (95%CI: 3.86%-4.44%, P<0.001), 5.98% (95%CI: 5.65%-6.31%, P<0.001) and 3.23% (95%CI: 2.94%-3.53%, P<0.001) respectively, the AAPC values of age-standardized morbidity rates were 2.47% (95%CI: 2.12%-2.83%, P<0.001), 3.98% (95%CI: 3.68%-4.29%, P<0.001), 1.65% (95%CI: 1.38%-1.93%, P<0.001), the AAPC values of crude mortality rates were 2.09% (95%CI: 1.92%-2.25%, P<0.001), 3.68% (95%CI: 3.45%-3.90%, P<0.001), 0.60% (95%CI: 0.50%-0.71%, P<0.001). The age-standardized mortality rates in men showed a fluctuating trend of first decrease (1990-1994), then increase (1994-2012), and then decrease (2012-2019) (AAPC=1.35%, 95%CI: 1.16%-1.53%, P<0.001). The age-standardized mortality rate in women continuously decreased (AAPC=-1.70%, 95%CI: -1.82%- -1.58%, P<0.001). The GM (1,1) models can be used for medium and long-term predictions. The results of the residual test show that the average relative error values of all models are less than 10.00%, the prediction accuracy values are more than 80.00%, and the prediction effects are good. The results of the posterior error method show that all the prediction results are good except the qualified prediction of the age-standardized morbidity rate in men. In 2029, the crude morbidity rates would increase to 3.57/100 000, 2.78/100 000, and 4.40/100 000, respectively, and the age-standardized incidence rates would increase to 2.38/100 000, 1.89/100 000, and 2.88/100 000, respectively, the crude mortality rates would increase to 0.57/100 000, 0.62/100 000 and 0.53/100 000, and the age-standardized mortality rates would decrease to 0.33/100 000, 0.42/100 000 and 0.27/100 000 in all population, men and women in China. Conclusions: The overall, gender- specific age-standardized mortality rates showed downward trends in the last decade or so, and the prediction results showed that it might further decline. However, the crude morbidity rates, age-standardized and crude mortality rates have been on the rise, and the population aging is becoming increasingly serious in China, which requires close attention and targeted prevention and control measures.

Analysis of the incidence and mortality trend of breast cancer in Chinese women from 2005 to 2013 / 中华疾病控制杂志

@# Objective To Analyze the change trend of the incidence and mortality of breast cancer in Chinese women from 2005 to 2013 in the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report in order to provide references for the implement of the prophylaxis and treatment of breast cancer. Methods Extracted all the records of the incidence and mortality of breast cancer in Chinese women from 2005 to 2013, applied the Joinpoint regression model to analyze the change trend of the incidence and mortality of breast cancer in Chinese women. Results The incidence levels of breast cancer among urban women in China was higher than that in rural from 2005 to 2013, the change trend of urban incidence was stable(t=-0.2, P=0.828), the rural incidence showed an increasing trend(t=7.8, P<0.001). The peaks of urban and rural incidence were in the age group of 50- and the age group of 45- respectively.The mortality of breast cancer among urban women in China was higher than that in rural from 2005 to 2013, the change trend of urban mortality was stable(t=0.8, P=0.458), and the rising trend of rural mortality was obvious(t=3.3, P=0.014). The mortality of urban women began to rise after the age of 30, accelerating to rise after the age of 75, the mortality of rural women began to rise after the age of 30, the change tended to be stable at the age of 55-69, and began to rise after the age of 70 again. Conclusions The incidence and mortality of breast cancer among urban women in China were all higher than that in rural from 2005 to 2013, the rising trend of the incidence and mortality of breast cancer among rural women was obvious, so the prophylaxis and treatment measures of breast cancer should be actively formulated and perfected.

Analysis of chemical composition in the combination of monkshood and pinellia by UPLC/Q-TOFMS with multivariate statistical analysis / 药学学报

In the present study, an ultra performance liquid chromatography coupled with time-of-flight mass spectrometry (UPLC/Q-TOFMS) based on chemical profiling approach to evaluate chemical constitution between mixed decoction and co-decoction of monkshood-pinellia combination of the eighteen incompatible medications (Shi Ba Fan) was proposed. Two different kinds of decoctions, namely monkshood-pinellia co-decoction: water extract of the two herbs together, and monkshood-pinellia mixed decoction: water extract of each individual herbs mixed together, were prepared. Batches of these two kinds of decoction samples were subjected to UPLC/Q-TOFMS analysis, the datasets were processed with MassLynx 4.1 to holistically compare the difference between these two kinds of decoction samples. The most changed components during decocting were analyzed. Using the proposed approach, global chemical difference was found between co-decoction and mixed decoction, mesaconitine, aconitine and hypaconitine were identified as the most changed components (changed most significantly) during decocting. Result shows significant difference between two kinds of decoction samples, and the significant differences are probably related to the incompatibility of monkshood and pinellia.