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OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of bevacizumab combined with erlotinib in the first-line treatment of advanced EGFR mutant non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer （NSCLC） from the perspective of China’s health system. METHODS A dynamic Markov model was established based on BEVERLY study data， with a cycle of 3 weeks， a research deadline until 99% of patients die， and an annual discount rate of 5%. The model outputs were total cost， quality-adjusted life year （QALY）， and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio （ICER）. Taking 3 times China’s per capita gross domestic product （GDP） in 2023 as the willingness-to-pay （WTP） threshold， the cost-utility analysis was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of bevacizumab combined with erlotinib （observation group） versus erlotinib alone （control group） in the first-line treatment of advanced EGFR mutant non-squamous NSCLC， and the single factor sensitivity analysis and probability sensitivity analysis were used to verify the robustness of the basic analysis results. RESULTS The results of the basic analysis showed that compared with the erlotinib therapy plan， ICER of bevacizumab combined with erlotinib was 1 452 243.01 yuan/QALY， which was more than 3 times China’s per capita GDP in 2023 （268 074 yuan/QALY） as the WTP threshold， indicating that bevacizumab combined with erlotinib was not cost-effective. The results of single factor sensitivity analysis showed that the cost of bevacizumab， the utility value of progression-free survival and progressed disease status had a great influence on the results. The results of probability sensitivity analysis showed that when the WTP threshold was 1 740 000 yuan/QALY， the probability of cost-effective of bevacizumab combined with erlotinib plan was 50%. CONCLUSIONS Compared with erlotinib alone， bevacizumab combined with erlotinib is not cost-effective in the first-line treatment of advanced EGFR mutant non-squamous NSCLC， when using 3 times China’s per capita GDP in 2023 as the WTP threshold.
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OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of bevacizumab combined with erlotinib in the first-line treatment of advanced EGFR mutant non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer （NSCLC） from the perspective of China’s health system. METHODS A dynamic Markov model was established based on BEVERLY study data， with a cycle of 3 weeks， a research deadline until 99% of patients die， and an annual discount rate of 5%. The model outputs were total cost， quality-adjusted life year （QALY）， and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio （ICER）. Taking 3 times China’s per capita gross domestic product （GDP） in 2023 as the willingness-to-pay （WTP） threshold， the cost-utility analysis was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of bevacizumab combined with erlotinib （observation group） versus erlotinib alone （control group） in the first-line treatment of advanced EGFR mutant non-squamous NSCLC， and the single factor sensitivity analysis and probability sensitivity analysis were used to verify the robustness of the basic analysis results. RESULTS The results of the basic analysis showed that compared with the erlotinib therapy plan， ICER of bevacizumab combined with erlotinib was 1 452 243.01 yuan/QALY， which was more than 3 times China’s per capita GDP in 2023 （268 074 yuan/QALY） as the WTP threshold， indicating that bevacizumab combined with erlotinib was not cost-effective. The results of single factor sensitivity analysis showed that the cost of bevacizumab， the utility value of progression-free survival and progressed disease status had a great influence on the results. The results of probability sensitivity analysis showed that when the WTP threshold was 1 740 000 yuan/QALY， the probability of cost-effective of bevacizumab combined with erlotinib plan was 50%. CONCLUSIONS Compared with erlotinib alone， bevacizumab combined with erlotinib is not cost-effective in the first-line treatment of advanced EGFR mutant non-squamous NSCLC， when using 3 times China’s per capita GDP in 2023 as the WTP threshold.
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OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of ivabradine in the treatment of chronic heart failure （CHF） in the context of “Quadruple Therapy” from the perspective of the health system. METHODS Based on real-world cohort data， the Markov model was constructed according to the natural progression of CHF， with a cycle time of 3 months， a study timeframe of 20 years， and a discount rate of 5%. Using quality-adjusted life year （QALY） and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios （ICER） as the output indexes， the cost-utility analysis was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of ivabradine in combination with the “Quadruple Therapy” regimen， compared with the “Quadruple Therapy” regimen for the treatment of CHF， and the robustness of the results of the base analysis was verified by univariate sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS The results of the base analysis showed that the ICER of ivabradine combined with the “Quadruple Therapy” regimen was 165 065.54 yuan/QALY， compared with the “Quadruple Therapy” regimen， which was lower than the willingness-to-pay （WTP） threshold （257 094 yuan/QALY） based on 3 times of China’s gross domestic product （GDP） per capita in 2022. The results of the univariate sensitivity analysis showed that the discount rate had the greatest impact on the robustness of the model. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the probability that the ivabradine combined with the “Quadruple Therapy” regimen was cost-effective under the WTP threshold in this study was 59.50%. CONCLUSIONS When using 3 times China’s 2022 GDP per capita （257 094 yuan/ QALY） as the WTP threshold， the combination of ivabradine and the “Quadruple Therapy” regimen for treating CHF is cost- effective.
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Objective To evaluate the economics of azacitidine versus decitabine in the treatment of myelodysplastic syndrome(MDS)from the perspective of health system in China,and provide references for clinical drug selection.Methods A Markov model was constructed based on the data of a multi-center retrospective cohort study(NCT01409070),with a model simulation time limit of 10 years and the cycle period of 28 days.The quality-adjusted life years(QALYs)was used as health output index and incremental cost-utility ratio(ICUR)was calculated to evaluate the economics of azacitidine versus decitabine in the treatment of MDS.One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were adopted to examine the robustness of the model simulation results.Results The results of basic analysis showed that compared with decitabine group,the total cost of azacitidine group reduced by 281 185.46 yuan and the utility increased by 0.17 QALYs.Azacitidine therapeutic regimen was the absolute dominance plan.One-way sensitivity analysis showed that progression-free survival state utility value,discount rate and decitabine cost had greater influence on the results.The results of probabilistic sensitivity analysis suggested that azacinidine therapy was always economical within the willingness to pay threshold range of 3 times Chinese per capita gross domestic product in 2021.Conclusion From the perspective of health system in China,azacitidine has more cost-utility advantages than decitabine in the treatment of MDS.
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Objective To compare the cost and effectiveness of the new oral anticoagulant rivaroxaban 15 mg or 20 mg once a day for the prevention of thrombosis in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation,and to provide references for clinical rational use of drugs.Method The Markov model was used to simulate the survival status of the two dose groups within 30 years,and the cost and health output were calculated separately to obtain the incremental cost-utility ratio(ICUR).Take 3 times of per capita gross domestic product(GDP)in China in 2020 as the willingness-to-pay threshold(WTP)to judge its economy.Results During the simulation period,compared with the 15 mg dose group,the 20 mg dose group had cumulative utility improvement of 0.97 quality-adjusted life-year(QALY),had an ICUR of 119 855 Yuan/QALY,had higher GDP and lower WTP,and was economical.Single-factor sensitivity analysis showed that the price and discount rate of the two doses of drugs were the main factors affecting ICUR.The probability sensitivity analysis pointed out that when the WTP was 3 times the per capita GDP,the 20 mg dose was more acceptable(65.2％),and the standard dose of 20 mg had a greater cost-utility advantage.Conclusion For patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation who take rivaroxaban for a long time to prevent thrombosis,choosing the instructional dose of 20 mg once a day is more cost-effective advantageous than the smaller dose of 15 mg once a day.
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Objective:To explore the relationship between the long-term dynamic change in alanine aminotransferase(ALT) level and metabolic associated fatty liver disease(MAFLD).Methods:A retrospective study was conducted on 6 864 subjects who underwent four consecutive physical examinations from 2017 to 2020 in a cohort study of physical examination population in Henan Province. The relation between ALT level and the shift of MAFLD risk was analyzed using a multi-state Markov model, and the bidirectional relationship between ALT level and MAFLD was explored using a random intercept cross-lagged model.Results:Multi-state Markov model after adjusting for confounding factors showed that the risk of MAFLD in ALT Q2, Q3, Q4 group was gradually higher than that in Q1 group; Compared with health status, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and MAFLD status gradually increased the risk of ALT shifting from normal to abnormal. The random intercept cross-lagged model after adjusting for confounding factors showed that there was a significant positive bidirectional relationship between MAFLD and ALT level. The cross-lag effect of MAFLD→ALT level was 0.083(95% CI 0.078-0.087), and the cross-lag effect of ALT→MAFLD was 0.044(95% CI 0.039-0.050). And with the extension of time, the cross-lag effect gradually decreased. Conclusions:There is a significant bidirectional relationship between the long-term dynamic change of ALT level and MAFLD. The occurrence of MAFLD is more likely to increase the risk of elevated ALT level, emphasizing the need for enhanced early prevention and treatment of MAFLD.
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OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of regorafenib in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma after failure of sorafenib from the perspective of Chinese health system. METHODS Based on a phase Ⅲ trial（RESORCE）， the partition survival model （PSM） and Markov model were constructed. The cycle was set as four weeks， the duration of the study lasted for lifetime， the annual discount rate was 5%. Drug cost data was obtained from yaozhi.com， other cost data were obtained from Anhui Provincial Medical Insurance Bureau and related literature， and utility values were obtained from literature. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio （ICER） was used as the evaluation index， and the value of willingness to pay （WTP） was three times of China’s gross domestic product （GDP） per capita in 2022； one-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were used to verify the robustness of the basic analysis results. RESULTS The incremental cost of regorafenib group versus placebo group in PSM and Markov model was 112 116.95 yuan and 96 617.19 yuan， respectively. The incremental effectiveness was 0.31 QALYs and 0.32 QALYs， respectively. The ICERs were 360 751.01 yuan/QALY and 301 114.45 yuan/QALY， which were both greater than the value of WTP； regorafenib was not cost-effective. Results of one-way sensitivity analysis showed that the utility of progression-free survival and progressive disease， the unit cost of regorafenib had the greatest influence on the results， but ICER was always greater than the WTP within the floating range of each parameter. Under the WTP of 3 times China’s per capita GDP in 2022， the probabilities of regorafenib with cost-effectiveness were 0.8% （PSM） and 11.4% （Markov）. CONCLUSIONS Under the WTP of 3 times the per capita GDP of China， regorafenib is not cost-effective in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma after failure of sorafenib treatment， compared with placebo.
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OBJECTIVE@#To compare the expected population impact of benefit and risk of aspirin treatment strategies for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases recommended by different guidelines in the Chinese Electronic Health Records Research in Yinzhou (CHERRY) study.@*METHODS@#A decision-analytic Markov model was used to simulate and compare different strategies of aspirin treatment, including: Strategy ①: Aspirin treatment for Chinese adults aged 40-69 years with a high 10-year cardiovascular risk, recommended by the 2020 Chinese Guideline on the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Diseases; Strategy ②: Aspirin treatment for Chinese adults aged 40-59 years with a high 10-year cardiovascular risk, recommended by the 2022 United States Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement on Aspirin Use to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease; Strategy ③: Aspirin treatment for Chinese adults aged 40-69 years with a high 10-year cardiovascular risk and blood pressure well-controlled (< 150/90 mmHg), recommended by the 2019 Guideline on the Assessment and Management of Cardio-vascular Risk in China. The high 10-year cardiovascular risk was defined as the 10-year predicted risk over 10% based on the 2019 World Health Organization non-laboratory model. The Markov model simulated different strategies for ten years (cycles) with parameters mainly from the CHERRY study or published literature. Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and the number needed to treat (NNT) for each ischemic event (including myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke) were calculated to assess the effectiveness of the different strategies. The number needed to harm (NNH) for each bleeding event (including hemorrhagic stroke and gastrointestinal bleeding) was calculated to assess the safety. The NNT for each net benefit (i.e., the difference of the number of ischemic events could be prevented and the number of bleeding events would be added) was also calculated. One-way sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of the incidence rate of cardiovascular diseases and probabilistic sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of hazard ratios of interventions were conducted.@*RESULTS@#A total of 212 153 Chinese adults, were included in this study. The number of people who were recommended for aspirin treatment Strategies ①-③ was 34 235, 2 813, and 25 111, respectively. The Strategy ③ could gain the most QALY of 403 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 222-511] years. Compared with Strategy ①, Strategy ③ had similar efficiency but better safety, with the extra NNT of 4 (95%UI: 3-4) and NNH of 39 (95%UI: 19-132). The NNT per net benefit was 131 (95%UI: 102-239) for Strategy ①, 256 (95%UI: 181-737) for Strategy ②, and 132 (95%UI: 104-232) for Strategy ③, making Strategy ③ the most favorable option with a better QALY and safety, along with similar efficiency in terms of net benefit. The results were consistent in the sensitivity analyses.@*CONCLUSION@#The aspirin treatment strategies recommended by the updated guidelines on the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases showed a net benefit for high-risk Chinese adults from developed areas. However, to balance effectiveness and safety, aspirin is suggested to be used for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases with consideration for blood pressure control, resulting in better intervention efficiency.
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Adulte , Humains , Adulte d'âge moyen , Sujet âgé , Acide acétylsalicylique/usage thérapeutique , Maladies cardiovasculaires/épidémiologie , Hémorragie gastro-intestinale , Infarctus du myocarde/prévention et contrôle , Prévention primaire/méthodesRÉSUMÉ
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of vericiguat combined with standard treatment in the treatment of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction （HFrEF）. METHODS Based on the results of the VICTORIA trial and related literature， a three-state （including stable state of heart failure， hospitalized state of heart failure and death state） Markov model was constructed. The cycle length was 1 month， the time horizon was 20 years， the discount rate was 5%， and one time China’s per capita gross domestic product （GDP） in 2021 was the willing-to-pay （WTP） threshold. Cost-utility analysis was performed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of vericiguat combined with standard treatment in the treatment of HFrEF. The output indicators included quality-adjusted life year （QALY） and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio （ICER）. The robustness of the results of the basic analysis was verified by one-way sensitivity analysis and probability sensitivity analysis. RESULTS The ICER of vericiguat combined with the standard treatment plan compared to the standard treatment plan alone was 444 341.95 yuan/QALY， which was more than WTP of this study （80 976 yuan/QALY）. One-way sensitivity analyses showed that the probability of cardiovascular death in both groups was the main influencing parameter for the robustness of the model， but they had little influence on the results of the basic analysis. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis displayed that under the WTP threshold of this study， the possibility of vericiguat combined with the standard treatment plan being more cost-effective was 2.6%. CONCLUSIONS Compared with the standard treatment plan， vericiguat combined with the standard treatment plan is not cost-effective in patients with HFrEF.
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In order to improve the motion fluency and coordination of lower extremity exoskeleton robots and wearers, a pace recognition method of exoskeleton wearer is proposed base on inertial sensors. Firstly, the triaxial acceleration and triaxial angular velocity signals at the thigh and calf were collected by inertial sensors. Then the signal segment of 0.5 seconds before the current time was extracted by the time window method. And the Fourier transform coefficients in the frequency domain signal were used as eigenvalues. Then the support vector machine (SVM) and hidden Markov model (HMM) were combined as a classification model, which was trained and tested for pace recognition. Finally, the pace change rule and the human-machine interaction force were combined in this model and the current pace was predicted by the model. The experimental results showed that the pace intention of the lower extremity exoskeleton wearer could be effectively identified by the method proposed in this article. And the recognition rate of the seven pace patterns could reach 92.14%. It provides a new way for the smooth control of the exoskeleton.
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Humains , Algorithmes , Dispositif d'exosquelette , Membre inférieur , Déplacement , Machine à vecteur de supportRÉSUMÉ
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost -effectiveness of tislelizumab in the second -line treatment of advanced or metastatic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma （ESCC）in China .METHODS A three -state Markov model was constructed to assess the cost -effectiveness of tislelizumab versus chemotherapy in the second -line treatment of advanced or metastatic ESCC and programmed death receptor 1（PD-L1）positive patients . The cycle length of the model was 1 month，and the time horizon of the model was set as 10 years. The discount rate of cost and utility was 5%. One-way sensitivity analysis ，probability sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis were used to verify the robustness of the base -case analysis results . RESULTS The results of the base-case analysis showed that compared with chemotherapy ，the incremental cost -effectiveness ratio （ICER）of tislelizumab in the second-line treatment of advanced or metastatic ESCC and PD -L1-positive patients were 26 864.01 yuan/QALY and 37 510.07 yuan/QALY，respectively，which was much lower than 1 time per capita gross domestic product （GDP）in 2021（80 976 yuan）. Results of scenario analysis showed that the ICER was less than 1 times per capita GDP ，regardless of the chemotherapy regimens（paclitaxel，docetaxel or irinotecan ）used. With the extension of the simulation time limit ，the ICER of tirelizumab regimen gradually decreased ，and the reduction rate gradually E-mail：lishunping@sdu.edu.cn decreased，but they were all less than 1 time China ’s per capita GDP in 2021. The results of the one -way sensitivity analysis showed that the 3 parameters with the most significant impact on the ICER were progression -free survival of tislelizumab group ，price of tislelizumab ，and the proportion of patients receiving follow-up treatment in the tislelizumab group . The results of the probability sensitivity analysis showed that the probability of tislelizumab with cost -effectiveness in the treatment of advanced or metastatic ESCC patients and PD -L1-positive patients were 99.09% and 99.94%，respectively，when using 3 times per capita GDP as the willingness -to-pay threshold . CONCLUSIONS Tislelizumab has economic advantages over chemotherapy alone in the second -line treatment of advanced or metastatic ESCC patients.
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OBJECTIVE@#To evaluate the effectiveness of statin treatment strategies based on risk assessment for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases by the Western guidelines in a community-based Chinese population from economically developed areas using data from the Chinese electronic health records research in Yinzhou (CHERRY) study.@*METHODS@#A Markov model was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the following statin treatment strategies, including: (1) usual care without cardiovascular risk assessment(Strategy 0); (2) using the World Health Organization (WHO) non-laboratory-based risk charts with statin treatment for high-risk group (risk ≥ 20%) (Strategy 1); (3) using the WHO laboratory-based risk charts with statin treatment for high-risk group (risk ≥ 20%) (Strategy 2); and (4) using the Prediction for Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease Risk in China (China-PAR) model with statin treatment for high-risk group (risk ≥ 10%, Strategy 3). According to the guidelines, adults in the medium-risk group received lifestyle intervention, and adults in the high-risk group received life-style intervention and statin treatment under these strategies. The Markov model simulated different strategies for ten years (cycles) using parameters from the CHERRY study, published data, meta-analyses and systematic reviews for Chinese. The number of cardiovascular events or deaths, as well as the number need to treat (NNT) with statin per cardiovascular event or death prevented, were calculated to compare the effectiveness of different strategies. One-way sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of incidence rate of cardiovascular diseases, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of hazard ratios of interventions were conducted.@*RESULTS@#Totally 225 811 Chinese adults aged 40-79 years without cardiovascular diseases at baseline were enrolled. In contrast to the usual care without risk assessment-based statin treatment strategy, Strategy 1 using the WHO non-laboratory-based risk charts could prevent 3 482 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 2 110-4 661] cardiovascular events, Strategy 2 using the WHO laboratory-based risk charts could prevent 3 685 (95%UI: 2 255-4 912) events, and Strategy 3 using the China-PAR model could prevent 3 895 (95%UI: 2 396-5 181) events. NNTs with statin per cardiovascular event prevented were 22 (95%UI: 14-54), 21 (95%UI: 14-52), and 27 (95%UI: 17-67), respectively. Strategy 3 could prevent more cardiovascular events, while Strategies 1 and 2 required fewer numbers need to treat with statin per cardiovascular event prevented. The results were consistent in the sensitivity analyses.@*CONCLUSION@#The statin treatment strategies based on risk assessment for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases recommended by the Western guidelines could achieve substantive health benefits in adults from developed areas of China. Using the China-PAR model for cardiovascular risk assessment could prevent more cardiovascular diseases while using the WHO risk charts seems more efficient.
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Adulte , Humains , Maladies cardiovasculaires/prévention et contrôle , Chine/épidémiologie , Analyse coût-bénéfice , Inhibiteurs de l'hydroxyméthylglutaryl-CoA réductase/usage thérapeutique , Prévention primaireRÉSUMÉ
OBJECTIVE@#To evaluate the effectiveness of different screening strategies for type 2 diabetes to prevent cardiovascular disease in a community-based Chinese population from economically developed areas based on the Chinese electronic health records research in Yinzhou (CHERRY) study.@*METHODS@#A Markov model was used to simulate different systematic diabetes screening strategies, including: (1) screening among Chinese adults aged 40-70 years recommended by the 2020 Chinese Guideline for the prevention and Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes (Strategy 1); (2) screening among Chinese adults aged 35 to 70 years recommended by the 2022 American Diabetes Association Standard of Medical Care in Diabetes (Strategy 2); and (3) screening among Chinese adults aged 35-70 years with overweight or obesity recommended by the 2021 United States Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement on Screening for Prediabetes and Type 2 Diabetes (Strategy 3). According to the guidelines, individuals who were screened positively (fasting plasma glucose ≥ 7.0 mmol/L) would be introduced to intensive glycemic targets management (glycated hemoglobin < 7.0%).The Markov model simulated different screening scenarios for ten years (cycles) with parameters mainly from the CHERRY study or published literature. Number of cardiovascular disease events or deaths could be prevented and number needed to screen (NNS) were calculated to compare the effectiveness of the different strategies. One-way sensitivity analysis on the sensitivity of screening methods and probabilistic sensitivity analysis on uncertainties of diabetes incidence, the sensitivity of screening methods, and intensive glycemic management effects were conducted.@*RESULTS@#Totally 289 245 Chinese adults aged 35-70 years without cardiovascular diseases or diagnosed diabetes at baseline were enrolled. In terms of the number of cardiovascular disease events could be prevented, Strategy 1 for systematic diabetes screening among the adults aged 35-70 years was 222 (95%UI: 180-264), Strategy 2 for systematic diabetes screening among the adults aged 40-70 years was 227 (95%UI: 185-271), and Strategy 3 for systematic diabetes screening among the adults aged 35-70 years with obesity or overweight (body mass index ≥ 24 kg/m2) was 131 (95%UI: 98-164), compared with opportunistic screening. NNS per cardiovascular disease event for the strategies 1, 2 and 3 were 1 184 (95%UI: 994-1 456), 1 274 (95%UI: 1 067-1 564) and 814 (95%UI: 649-1 091), respectively. Compared with Strategy 1, NNS per cardiovascular disease event for Strategy 2 increased by 90 (95%UI: -197-381) with similar effectiveness of cardiovascular prevention; however, NNS per cardiovascular disease event for Strategy 3 was reduced by 460 (95%UI: 185-724) in contrast to the Strategy 2, suggesting that the Strategy 3 was more efficient. The results were consistent in multiple sensitivity analyses.@*CONCLUSION@#Systematic screening for diabetes based on the latest guidelines in economically developed areas of China can reduce cardiovascular events and deaths. However, merely lowering the starting age of screening from 40 to 35 years seems ineffective for preventing cardiovascular disease, while screening strategy for Chinese adults aged 35-70 years with overweight or obesity is recommended to improve efficiency.
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Adulte , Humains , Maladies cardiovasculaires/prévention et contrôle , Chine/épidémiologie , Analyse coût-bénéfice , Diabète de type 2/prévention et contrôle , Dépistage de masse/méthodes , Obésité , Surpoids , États-UnisRÉSUMÉ
OBJECTIVE@#To evaluate the potential effectiveness of different screening strategies for cardiovascular diseases prevention in a community-based Chinese population from economically developed area of China.@*METHODS@#Totally 202 179 adults aged 40 to 74 years without cardiovascular diseases at baseline (January 1, 2010) were enrolled from the Chinese electronic health records research in Yinzhou (CHERRY) study. Three scenarios were considered: the screening strategy based on risk charts recommended by the 2020 Chinese guideline on the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases in Chinese adults aged 40-74 years (Strategy 1); the screening strategy based on the prediction for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk in China (China-PAR) models recommended by the 2019 Guideline on the assessment and management of cardiovascular risk in China in Chinese adults aged 40-74 years (Strategy 2); and the screening strategy based on the China-PAR models in Chinese adults aged 50-74 years (Strategy 3). According to the guidelines, individuals who were classified into medium- or high-risk groups after cardiovascular risk assessment by the corresponding strategies would be introduced to lifestyle intervention, while high-risk population would take medication in addition. Markov model was used to simulate different screening scenarios for 10 years (cycles), using parameters mainly from the CHERRY study, as well as published data, Meta-analyses and systematic reviews for Chinese populations. The life year gained, quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, number of cardiovascular disease events/deaths could be prevented and number needed to be screened (NNS) were calculated to compare the effectiveness between the different strategies. One-way sensitivity analysis on uncertainty of cardiovascular disease incidence rate and probabilistic sensitivity analysis on uncertainty of distributions for the hazard ratios were conducted.@*RESULTS@#Compared with non-screening strategy, QALYs gained were 1 433 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 969-1 831], 1 401 (95%UI: 936-1 807), and 716 (95%UI: 265-1 111) for the Strategies 1, 2, and 3; and the NNS per QALY in the above strategies were 141 (95%UI: 110-209), 144 (95%UI: 112-216), and 198 (95%UI: 127-529), respectively. The Strategies 1 and 2 based on different guidelines showed similar effectiveness, while more benefits were found for screening using China-PAR models in adults aged 40-74 years than those aged 50-74 years. The results were consistent in the sensitivity analyses.@*CONCLUSION@#Screening for cardiovascular diseases in Chinese adults aged above 40 years seems effective in coastal developed areas of China, and the different screening strategies based on risk charts by the 2020 Chinese guideline on the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases or China-PAR models by the 2019 Guideline on the assessment and management of cardiovascular risk in China may have similar effectiveness.
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Adulte , Humains , Maladies cardiovasculaires/prévention et contrôle , Chine/épidémiologie , Analyse coût-bénéfice , Dépistage de masse , Prévention primaire , Années de vie ajustées sur la qualitéRÉSUMÉ
This research was to evaluate the economics of Shexiang Tongxin Dropping Pills combined with conventional therapy for patients with coronary heart disease(CHD) in Chinese medical environment. From the perspective of medical insurance, a Markov model was established in this study based on the results of Meta-analysis comparing the effectiveness and safety of Shexiang Tongxin Dripping Pills combined with conventional treatment and conventional treatment alone. The experimental group was treated with She-xiang Tongxin Dropping Pills combined with conventional Western medicine treatment, while the control group was treated with conventional Western medicine treatment alone. The cost-utility analysis and sensitivity analysis were performed for the two regimens using Treeage pro. After 30 cycles of model simulation, according to the results of Markov model, the total cost and health output were CNY 237 795.73 and 16.36 QALYs(the quality adjusted life years, QALYs), respectively for Shexiang Tongxin Dropping Pills combined with conventional Western medicine treatment, CNY 247 396.55 and 16.36 QALYs respectively for the conventional Western medicine treatment alone. Compared with the conventional treatment alone, the Shexiang Tongxin Dropping Pills combined with conventional treatment had lower long-term cost and higher health output, with advantages of cost-utility and pharmacoeconomic advantages. The sensitivity analysis results showed that the conclusion was relatively stable. Based on the above results, it is considered that compared with the conventional Western medicine alone, Shexiang Tongxin Dropping Pill combined with conventional Western medicine is a treatment regimen with pharmacoeconomic advantages for the treatment of CHD.
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Femelle , Humains , Maladie coronarienne/traitement médicamenteux , Médicaments issus de plantes chinoises , PharmacoéconomieRÉSUMÉ
To evaluate the economics of Suhuang Zhike Capsules in the treatment of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(AECOPD) for inpatients. Based on the published clinical research data, cost-utility analysis was used in this study to evaluate the pharmacoeconomics of Suhuang Zhike Capsules in treatment of AECOPD inpatients from the perspective of medical insu-rance. The test group was treated with Suhuang Zhike Capsules combined with conventional Western medicine, and the control group was treated with conventional Western medicine alone. Treeage software was used to construct a pharmacoeconomic model and perform simulation analysis. The results showed that the cost and output of Suhuang Zhike Capsules combined with the conventional Western medicine were 60 010.18 yuan and 1.92 quality adjusted life year(QALYs), respectively in the simulated 3 years of disease treatment. The cost and output of the conventional Western medicine were 96 730.60 yuan and 1.90 QALYs respectively. Suhuang Zhike Capsules combined with conventional Western medicine required lower cost but achieved higher output, showing cost-utility advantages, so this drug combination was a plan with pharmacoeconomic advantages. The sensitivity analysis results showed that the conclusion was relatively stable. Based on the above results, it is believed that as compared with the conventional Western medicine, Suhuang Zhike Capsules combined with conventional Western medicine have lower cost and higher output for the treatment of AECOPD inpatients, and it is a treatment plan with pharmacoeconomic advantages.
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Humains , Capsules , Médicaments issus de plantes chinoises/usage thérapeutique , Pharmacoéconomie , Patients hospitalisés , Broncho-pneumopathie chronique obstructive/traitement médicamenteuxRÉSUMÉ
Vision is an important way for human beings to interact with the outside world and obtain information. In order to research human visual behavior under different conditions, this paper uses a Gaussian mixture-hidden Markov model (GMM-HMM) to model the scanpath, and proposes a new model optimization method, time-shifting segmentation (TSS). The TSS method can highlight the characteristics of the time dimension in the scanpath, improve the pattern recognition results, and enhance the stability of the model. In this paper, a linear discriminant analysis (LDA) method is used for multi-dimensional feature pattern recognition to evaluates the rationality and the accuracy of the proposed model. Four sets of comparative trials were carried out for the model evaluation. The first group applied the GMM-HMM to model the scanpath, and the average accuracy of the classification could reach 0.507, which is greater than the opportunity probability of three classification (0.333). The second set of trial applied TSS method, and the mean accuracy of classification was raised to 0.610. The third group combined GMM-HMM with TSS method, and the mean accuracy of classification reached 0.602, which was more stable than the second model. Finally, comparing the model analysis results with the saccade amplitude (SA) characteristics analysis results, the modeling analysis method is much better than the basic information analysis method. Via analyzing the characteristics of three types of tasks, the results show that the free viewing task have higher specificity value and a higher sensitivity to the cued object search task. In summary, the application of GMM-HMM model has a good performance in scanpath pattern recognition, and the introduction of TSS method can enhance the difference of scanpath characteristics. Especially for the recognition of the scanpath of search-type tasks, the model has better advantages. And it also provides a new solution for a single state eye movement sequence.
Sujet(s)
Humains , Algorithmes , Analyse discriminante , Mouvements oculaires , Chaines de Markov , Loi normale , ProbabilitéRÉSUMÉ
OBJECTIVE：To evaluate the cost-utility of the pan-genotypic direct-acting antivirals （DAAs）in the treatment of patients with chronic hepatitis C infection ，and to provide pharmacoeconomic evidence for relevant health care decisions. METHODS：A Markov model was established from a societal perspective with newly diagnosed chronic hepatitis C patients in China as the target population ，and analyzed quality-adjusted life years （QALYs）and incremental cost-utility ratios （ICERs）of patients with chronic hepatitis C with sofosbuvir/velpatasvir ，glecaprevir/pibrentasvir，sofosbuvir+coblopasvir. Sensitivity analysis was used to verity the robustness of the results. RESULTS ：Glecaprevir/pibrentasvir increased QALYs by 0.002 1 and costs by 25 021 RMB，compared to sofosbuvir/velpatasvir ；its ICERs was 12 129 031 yuan/QALY（willingness to pay threshold was 70 892 yuan/QALY），which had no cost-utility ；glecaprevir/pibrentasvir need to cut down the price by 64.65％ to have cost-utility. Sofosbuvir+coblopasvir increased QALYs by 0.002 0 and saved costs by 515 yuan，so it was the optimal regimen which was cost-saving. Sensitivity analysis showed that SVR rates and drug prices were the most influential factors. The probability of having cost-utility for sofosbuvir+coblopasvir was higher than glecaprevir/pibrentasvir. CONCLUSIONS ：Glecaprevir/pibrentasvir need to reduce the price to achieve better affordability. Sofosbuvir+coblopasvir shows economical advantage.
RÉSUMÉ
In view of the inherent drawbacks of traditional medical equipment procurement mode, a decision-making model of medical equipment procurement based on Improved Markov model is proposed and the engineering evaluation practice is carried out. The data pool of medical equipment procurement of big data level is constructed, the core constraint factors of medical equipment procurement are perceived by deep learning, the decision model of medical equipment procurement under multi-dimensional constraints is constructed, and the Improved Markov model is introduced, and the observable decision-making scheme of medical equipment procurement is given. The results show that the model can give the decision-making scheme of medical equipment procurement with global optimal attribute under multi-dimensional constraints. It has obvious advantages in the balance of long-term demand and immediate demand, the optimization of procurement decision-making scheme, and the accuracy of patient demand prediction in a long period.
RÉSUMÉ
OBJECTIVE：To pro vide reference for reducing the error of Markov model in pharmacoeconomic evaluation. METHODS：Referring to foreign literatures ，the errors in Markov model were explained. The commonly used correction methods were introduced ：half-cycle correction ，trapezoidal rule ，Simpson’s 1/3 rule，Simpson’s 3/8 method and life table method and their implementation in Excel and TreeAge software. RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS ：The error of Markov model was caused by the discretization process and could be corrected by the within-cycle correction methods. Half-cycle correction ，was the most commonly used correction method and could be corrected by adding half of the results of the first cycle and subtracting half of the results of the last cycle. By trapezoidal rule ，the interval was represented by the mean value of the first end point value of the interval ，and the area of right trapezoid was the cummulative result. Simpson’s 1/3 rule and Simpson ’s 3/8 rule took another point in the interval on the basis of trapezoidal correction and the continuous curve where these three points were represented the whole curve. By life table method ，the person-years of survival was the product of the group distance of the age group and the mean value of the number of survivors of the age group and the next age group ，and the total person-years of survival was the sum of person-years of survival of each age group. In Excel ，the fuction was set according to the method principle to realize the correction ；in Tree Age software，the function expression of Init Rwd ，Inor Rwd and Final Rwd were set to realize the correction. When using Markov model for pharmacoeconomic evaluation ，if the selection of periodic correction method is based on the ease of modeling and the universality of application ，the trapezoid rule method is recommended ；based on the accuracy of results ，it is suggested to use Simpson’s 1/3 method，so as to improve the accuracy of Markov model.