Temporal Pattern and Spatial Distribution of Tuberculosis Prevalence Associated with Multimorbidity in Brazil

ABSTRACT Background: Four main chronic conditions may be involved in the tuberculosis pathogenic process and/or clinical evolution: HIV/AIDS, diabetes mellitus, mental illness, and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease. This study aimed to determine the spatiotemporal pattern of tuberculosis (TB) associated with multimorbidity in Brazil. Methods: Ecological study use data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN), collected from the electronic portal of the Department of Informatics of the SUS (DATASUS). These data included TB cases that were reported between 2007 and 2021 and were associated with two or more chronic clinical health conditions (multimorbidity). Results: A total of 7,795 cases of TB associated with multimorbidity were recorded, with an average growth trend of 4.6% per year (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3.3-5.9; p<0.001) and higher growth in the first temporal segment (2007 to 2011) (8.9%; 95%CI: 4.2-13.9; p=0.002). The spatial analysis, after Bayesian smoothing, highlighted the main municipalities states of the study, namely: São Paulo (19.8%; n = 297), Porto Alegre (23.6%; n = 354), and Rio de Janeiro (44.8%; n = 672). The proportion of extremely poor (β=-0.002), the bolsa família program (β=0.002), the average per-person income (β=0.001), and the percentage of the population living in households with a density of more than 2 people per bedroom (β=0.001) were related to chronic health conditions. Conclusions: These findings will stimulate public action to manage this situation. However, as this is still a recent topic in the literature, we encourage the development of studies on the synergistic characteristics of TB and other clinical conditions.

Padrão espaço-temporal e fatores associados à mortalidade por tuberculose em um estado do nordeste- brasil / Spatio-temporal pattern and factors associated with tuberculosis mortality in a northeastern state - brazil / Patrón espacio-temporal y factores asociados a la mortalidad por tuberculosis en un estado del noreste - brasil

RESUMO Objetivo: identificar o padrão espaço-temporal da mortalidade por tuberculose e seus fatores a ela relacionados. Método: estudo ecológico, usando como unidade de análise os municípios do estado do Ceará, Brasil, durante o período de 2001 a 2017. A mortalidade por tuberculose foi analisada por técnicas de análise temporal e espacial. Resultados: no período, foram notificados 1.513 óbitos por tuberculose. Detectou-se aumento anual médio de 15% na mortalidade (Intervalo de Confiança 95%: 6,2 - 24,6). Os indicadores que mais influenciaram a mortalidade foram: esperança de vida ao nascer (β=3,38), domicílios com abastecimento de água e esgotamento sanitário inadequados (β=-0,01) e probabilidade de sobrevivência até os 60 anos (β=-2,26). Conclusão: este estudo evidenciou o aumento no padrão temporal da mortalidade por tuberculose ao longo dos anos. Deve-se, portanto, enfatizar estratégias de cuidado voltadas à adesão ao tratamento e de saúde pública voltadas à melhoria do ambiente da população.

ABSTRACT Objective: to identify the spatio-temporal pattern of tuberculosis mortality and its related factors. Method: ecological study, using as unit of analysis the municipalities of the state of Ceará, Brazil, during the period from 2001 to 2017. Tuberculosis mortality was analyzed by temporal and spatial analysis techniques. Results: in the period, 1,513 deaths from tuberculosis were reported. An average annual increase of 15% in mortality was detected (95% Confidence Interval: 6.2 - 24.6). The indicators that most influenced mortality were life expectancy at birth (β=3.38), households with inadequate water supply and sanitation (β=-0.01) and probability of survival to 60 years (β=-2.26). Conclusion: this study evidenced the increase in the temporal pattern of tuberculosis mortality over the years. Care strategies aimed at treatment adherence and public health strategies aimed at improving the environment of the population should therefore be emphasized.

RESUMEN Objetivo: identificar el patrón espacio-temporal de la mortalidad por tuberculosis y los factores relacionados. Método: Estudio ecológico, utilizando como unidad de análisis los municipios del estado de Ceará, Brasil, durante 2001 a 2017. La mortalidad por tuberculosis se analizó mediante técnicas de análisis temporal y espacial. Resultados: se notificaron 1.513 muertes por tuberculosis en el periodo. Se detectó un aumento medio anual del 15% de la mortalidad (intervalo de confianza del 95%: 6,2 - 24,6). Los indicadores que más influyeron en la mortalidad fueron: la esperanza de vida al nacer (β=3,38), los hogares con suministro de agua y saneamiento inadecuados (β=-0,01) y la probabilidad de sobrevivir hasta los 60 años (β=-2,26). Conclusión: este estudio evidenció el aumento del patrón temporal de la mortalidad por tuberculosis a lo largo de los años. Por lo tanto, se debe hacer hincapié en las estrategias de atención dirigidas a la adherencia al tratamiento y en las estrategias de salud pública dirigidas a mejorar el entorno de la población.