Aplicación de sistemas fuzzy para la toma de decisiones del Plan Paso a Paso: análisis de los indicadores para la comuna de Valdivia / Artificial intelligence fuzzy system for the design of confinements during quarantines

BACKGROUND: Different modalities of quarantines were one of the main measures implemented worldwide to avoid the spread of SARS-CoV2 virus. AIM: To analyze and compare retrospectively the implementation of the Step- to-Step plan devised by the Chilean Ministry of Health during the pandemic. To propose a decision-making path based on an artificial intelligence fuzzy system to determine confinements in specific territories. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The Step-to-Step Plan threshold values such hospital network capacity, epidemic spreading, testing and contact tracing capability were modeled using fuzzy numbers and fuzzy rule-based systems. RESULTS: Ministry of Health's decision-making opportuneness were unrelated with the Step-to-Step Plan indicators for deconfinement. Such disagreements undermined epidemiological indicators. CONCLUSIONS: Using an artificial intelligence system could improve decision-making transparency, emergency governance, and risk communication to the population.

Mortality of Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera, Plutellidae) by parasitoids in the Province of Santa Fe, Argentina

Mortality of Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera, Plutellidae) by parasitoids in the Province of Santa Fe, Argentina. Plutella xylostella (Linnaeus, 1758) (Lepidoptera, Plutellidae) larvae cause severe economic damage on cabbage, Brassica oleracea L. variety capitata (Brassicaceae), in the horticultural fields in the Province of Santa Fe, Argentina. Overuse of broad spectrum insecticides affects the action of natural enemies of this insect on cabbage. The objectives of this work were to identify the parasitoids of P. xylostella and to determine their influence on larva and pupa mortality. Weekly collections of larvae and pupae were randomly conducted in cabbage crops during spring 2006 and 2007. The immature forms collected were classified according to their developmental stage: L1 and L2 (Ls = small larvae), L3 (Lm = medium larvae), L4 (Ll = large larvae), pre-pupae and pupae (P). Each individual was observed daily in the laboratory until the adult pest or parasitoid emergence. We identified parasitoids, the number of instar and the percentage of mortality of P. xylostella for each species of parasitoid. Parasitoids recorded were: Diadegma insulare (Cresson, 1875) (Hymenoptera, Ichneumonidae), Oomyzus sokolowskii (Kurdjumov, 1912) (Hymenoptera, Eulophidae), Cotesia plutellae (Kurdjumov, 1912) (Hymenoptera, Braconidae) and an unidentified species of Chalcididae (Hymenoptera). Besides parasitoids, an unidentified entomopathogenic fungus was also recorded in 2006 and 2007. In 2006, the most successful parasitoids were D. insulare and O. sokolowskii, while in 2007 only D. insulare exerted a satisfactory control and it attacked the early instars of the pest.

Mortalidade de Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera, Plutellidae) por parasitóides na Província de Santa Fé, Argentina. Plutella xylostella (Linnaeus, 1758) (Lepidoptera, Plutellidae) causa danos econômicos severos em repolho, Brassica oleracea variedade capitata L. (Brassicaceae), na área de horticultura localizada na Província de Santa Fé, Argentina. O uso excessivo de inseticidas de largo espectro afeta a ação dos inimigos naturais de P. xylostella em repolho. O presente trabalho teve como objetivo identificar os parasitóides de P. xylostella e determinar sua influência na mortalidade de larvas e pupas em Santa Fé, Argentina. Coletas semanais de larvas e pupas em culturas de repolho foram realizadas aleatoriamente na área durante a primavera de 2006 e 2007, registradas pelo estágio de desenvolvimento: L1 e L2 (Ls = larvas pequenas), (Lm = larvas médias) L3, L4 (Ll = larvas grandes) pré-pupa e pupa (P). Cada indivíduo foi observado diariamente no laboratório até a emergência dos adultos da praga ou dos parasitóides. Foram identificadas as espécies de parasitóides o número de instars e a porcentagem de mortalidade. Os parasitóides registrados foram: Diadegma insulare (Cresson, 1875) (Hymenoptera, Ichneumonidae), Oomyzus sokolowskii (Kurdjumov, 1912) (Hymenoptera, Eulophidae), Cotesia plutellae (Kurdjumov, 1912) (Hymenoptera, Braconidae) e uma espécie não identificada pertencente à família Chalcididae. Além dos parasitóides, um fungo entomopatogênico não identificado foi registrado. Em 2006, os parasitóides mais bem sucedidos foram D. insulare e O. Sokolowskii; enquanto que em 2007 apenas D. insulare exerceu um controle satisfatório, atacando os instares iniciais da praga.