Puntaje APP como predictor de mortalidad en pacientes con síndrome de dificultad respiratoria agudo grave por COVID-19 en un hospital referencial del norte del Perú / APP score as a predictor of mortality in patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome due to COVID-19 in a reference hospital in northern of Peru

INTRODUCCIÓN: La mortalidad por pacientes por COVID-19 grave que desarrollaban neumonía grave y síndrome de dificultad respiratoria agudo (SDRA) grave ha sido significativa a pesar del tratamiento oportuno. Es importante determinar predictores tempranos de enfermedad que nos ayuden a estratificar aquellos pacientes con mayor riesgo de fallecer. Se pretende estudiar el comportamiento del puntaje APP (APPS) como predictor de ello, basados en algunos reportes de uso y utilidad en el SDRA. no COVID-19. OBJETIVO: Determinar si el APPS es útil como predictor de mortalidad en SDRA. por COVID-19 grave. PACIENTES Y MÉTODO: Se realizó un estudio tipo cohorte retrospectivo, incluyendo pacientes de la Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos (UCI), con SDRA. por COVID-19 grave, que ingresaron a la UCI del Hospital Regional Docente de Trujillo (HRDT) en el período abril 2020- abril 2021. Se evalúo la utilidad del APPS como predictor de mortalidad em dicha población. RESULTADOS: El APPS demostró ser un factor asociado a mortalidad en pacientes con SDRA. y COVID-19 grave (RPa 1,34; IC 95% 1,16 a 1,56; p < 0,001). Además, encontramos que, al realizar un modelo de predicción ajustado por edad, sexo, SOFA, APPS, shock, Indice de Charlson (ICh), se comportan como factores asociados a mortalidad el APPS, el sexo masculino (RPa: 1,48; IC 95% 1,09 a 2,049; p < 0,05) y el ICh (RPa: 1,11; IC 95% 1,02 a 1,21; p < 0,05). CONCLUSIÓN: El APPS, el sexo masculino y el ICh son predictores de mortalidad en SDRA. por COVID-19 grave.

BACKGROUND: Mortality in patients with severe COVID-19 who developed severe pneumonia and severe Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) has been significant despite timely treatment. It is important to determine early predictors of disease that help us to stratify those patients with a higher risk of death. It is intended to study the behavior of the APPS score as a predictor of this, based on some reports of use and usefulness in non-COVID-19 ARDS. AIM: To determine if the APP score is useful as a predictor of mortality in ARDS due to severe COVID-19. METHOD: A retrospective cohort study was carried out, including patients from the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) with ARDS due to severe COVID-19 who were admitted to the ICU of the Trujillo Regional Teaching Hospital (HRDT) in the period March 2020 to March 2021. The usefulness of the APP score as a predictor of mortality in mentioned population was evaluated. RESULTS: The APP score proved to be a factor associated with mortality in patients with ARDS and severe COVID-19 (APR 1.34; 95% CI 1.16 to 1.56; p < 0.001). We also found that when performing a prediction model adjusted for age, sex, SOFA, APP score, shock and Charlson Index (ICh) we found that the APP score, male sex (APR: 1.48; 95% CI 1.09 to 2.049; p < 0.05) and the ICh behave as factors associated with mortality (RPa: 1.11; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.21; p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The APP score, male sex, and ICh are predictors of mortality in ARDS due to severe COVID-19.

Inmunoanálisis quimioluminiscente de micropartículas (CMIA) en el diagnóstico de sífilis: caracterización y valorización / Chemioluminescent microparticle immunoanalysis (CMIA) in the diagnosis of syphilis: characterization and assessment

INTRODUCCIÓN: La inmunoquimioluminiscencia de micropartículas (CMIA), no es recomendada en el día de hoy para el tamizaje ni confirmación de sífilis en pacientes, las guías chilenas recomiendan tamizaje con V.D.R.L y confirmación con hemaglutinación. OBJETIVO: Determinar la especificidad, sensibilidad y correlación diagnóstica de esta técnica respecto a la prueba treponémica de uso habitual. MATERIALES Y MÉTODOS: De 815 muestras obtenidas en un periodo de 6 meses, a todas las cuales se les aplicó las pruebas de VDRL, MHA-TP y CMIA, 484 muestras fueron positivas para MHA-TP. Se determinó el rendimiento, se graficaron las curvas ROC, índice de correlación y punto de corte óptimo. RESULTADOS: La CMIA. demostró una sensibilidad de 100%, especificidad: 94,6%, VPN: 100% y VPP: 96.4% y una eficiencia de 97,8% con respecto al MHA-TP, con un índice de correlación: 0,97 y un punto de corte de 7.665, de modo que toda muestra con una CMIA. sobre este valor no necesitaría de una segunda prueba treponémica para su confirmación. El 7,11% tuvo valores intermedios de CMIA (1.0 a 7.664). CONCLUSIÓN: La CMIA. es una técnica automatizada altamente sensible y específica, equiparable al MHA-TP. Aplicada como prueba inicial de testeo para sífilis incrementa la certeza diagnóstica y podría permitir el diagnóstico precoz de la enfermedad.

BACKGROUND: The chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay (CMIA) is not recommended for screening or confirmation of syphilis in patients, Chilean guidelines recommend screening with VDRL and confirmation with hemagglutination. AIM: To determine the specificity, sensitivity, and diagnostic correlation of this technique compared to the usual treponemal test. METHODS: Of the 815 samples obtained over a period of 6 months, all of which were subjected to VDRL, MHATP, and CMIA. testing, 484 samples were positive for MHA-TP. The performance was determined, ROC curves were graphed, correlation index and optimal cutoff point were determined. RESULTS: CMIA showed a sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 94.6%, NPV of 100%, PPV of 96.4%, and an efficiency of 97.8% compared to MHA-TP, with a correlation index of 0.97 and a cutoff point of 7.665, such that any sample with a CMIA. value above this value would not require a second treponemal test for confirmation. 7.11% had intermediate CMIA. values (1.0 to 7.664). CONCLUSION: CMIA. is a highly sensitive and specific automated technique comparable to MHA-TP. When applied as an initial screening test for syphilis, it increases diagnostic certainty and may allow for early diagnosis of the disease.

Effect of M-wave Amplitude on Inter-evaluator Concordance and Number of Detected Innervation Zones in the Medial Gastrocnemius Using Multichannel Electromyography / Efecto de la Amplitud de la Onda M sobre la Concordancia entre Evaluadores y el Número de Zonas de Inervación Detectadas en el Gastrocnemio Medial Mediante Electromiografía Multicanal

SUMMARY: The Innervation Zones (IZ) correspond to clusters of neuromuscular junctions. The traditional method of locating IZs through voluntary muscle contractions may not be feasible in individuals with motor disorders. Imposed contractions by electrostimulation are an alternative. However, there is limited evidence regarding the factors that affect inter-evaluator concordance and the number of localized IZs when using imposed contraction. The main objective of this research was to determine the effect of the amplitude of compound motor action potentials (CMAPs) containing the M-wave on inter-evaluator agreement. As a secondary objective, was investigate the effect on the number of detected IZs. Twenty-four healthy volunteers (age: 21.2 ± 1.5years, weight: 67.4 ± 13.2kg, height: 1.68 ± 0.80m) participated in the study. Electrostimulation was applied to the tibial nerve to induce contraction of the medial gastrocnemius. The IZ were identified based on the M-wave recorded through multichannel electromyography. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted to assess sensitivity and specificity in detecting the IZs. Inter-rater agreement was evaluated using a two-way mixed effects test to determine the intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). A p-value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. The ROC analysis revealed that for both evaluators, a specificity of 95% was achieved with an amplitude ≥30 %. The area under the ROC curve was 0.980 [0.964, 0.996], indicating a strong influence of CMAP amplitude on detection of IZs. The highest level of agreement (ICC = 0.788 [0.713, 0.844]) among the evaluators was observed with CMAP amplitudes equal to or greater than 80 % of the maximum M-wave. The findings of this study demonstrate that both the number and the inter-evaluator concordance for detecting IZs using imposed contractions are strongly influenced by the amplitude of the M-wave. Higher M-wave amplitudes were associated with improved concordance and increased IZ detection, making it crucial to standardize amplitude settings for reliable outcomes.

Las Zonas de Inervación (IZ) corresponden a grupos de uniones neuromusculares. El método tradicional para localizar IZs mediante contracciones musculares voluntarias puede no ser factible en personas con trastornos motores. Las contracciones impuestas mediante electro estimulación son una alternativa. Sin embargo, existe poca evidencia sobre los factores que afectan la concordancia entre evaluadores y el número de IZs localizadas al usar este tipo de contracciones. El objetivo de esta investigación fue determinar el efecto de la amplitud de los potenciales de acción motores compuestos (PAMCs) que contienen la onda M sobre la concordancia entre evaluadores. Como objetivo secundario, se investigó el efecto sobre el número de IZs detectadas. Veinticuatro voluntarios sanos (edad: 21.2 ± 1.5 años, peso: 67.4 ± 13.2 kg, altura: 1.68 ± 0.80 m) participaron en el estudio. Se aplicó electroestimulación al nervio tibial para inducir la contracción del gastrocnemio medial. Las IZs se identificaron según la onda M registrada mediante electromiografía multicanal. Se realizó un análisis de curva de las característica del receptor (ROC) para evaluar la sensibilidad y especificidad en la detección de las IZs. La concordancia entre evaluadores se evaluó utilizando una prueba de efectos mixtos de dos vías para determinar los coeficientes de correlación intraclase (ICC). Se consideró un valor de p menor que 0.05 como estadísticamente significativo. El análisis ROC reveló que para ambos evaluadores se logró una especificidad del 95% con una amplitud ≥30 %. El área bajo la curva ROC fue de 0.980 [0.964, 0.996], lo que indica una fuerte influencia de la amplitud del CMAP en la detección de las IZs. El nivel más alto de concordancia (ICC = 0.788 [0.713, 0.844]) entre los evaluadores se observó con amplitudes de CMAP iguales o mayores al 80 % de la onda M máxima. Los hallazgos de este estudio demuestran que tanto el número como la concordancia entre evaluadores para detectar IZs mediante contracciones impuestas están fuertemente influenciados por la amplitud de la onda M. Las amplitudes más altas de la onda M se asociaron con una concordancia mejorada y un aumento en la detección de IZs, lo que hace crucial estandarizar los ajustes de amplitud para obtener resultados confiables.

The Anterior Pelvic Index (API) in the Classification of the Female Pelvis and Prediction of Fetopelvic Disproportion / El Índice Pelviano Anterior (API) en la Clasificación de la Pelvis Femenina y Predicción de la Desproporción Fetopélvica

SUMMARY: Measurements of the upper strait of the pelvis can be calculated using the Anterior Pelvic Index. The objective of the study was to determine the external validity and cut-off point of the API, to classify narrow pelvises from normal ones. We selected 214 women from 15 to 55 years old, 171 had vaginal delivery and 43 by caesarean section by feto-pelvic disproportion (FPD) of maternal origin, in whom the API was calculated, of which its mean difference was established with an alpha error of <0.05. Maximum values of sensitivity and specificity, ROC curve and Youden index were determined. The student's t gave a p-value =0.000 of the mean difference between the women who had vaginal delivery and those who had cesarean section by FPD of maternal origin; the value of the area under the ROC curve was 0.758 (CI 95% 0.695 - 0.814) with a p-value=0.0001. Maximum sensitivity was 74.42 % (CI 95%: 58.8 % to 86.5 %) and maximum specificity was 73.10 % (CI 95%: 65.8 % to 79.6 %), produced a Youden index of 0.475 (CI 95% 0.283 - 0.590) which is associated with the 15.44 (CI 95% 14.19 - 15.83) of the API scale. The API is a good tool for predicting women with suspected narrow pelvis and allows its classification into three types of pelvises: an API value of more than 15.83 would indicate pelvis suitable for vaginal delivery; an API value between 14.19 and 15.83 would be suspected of pelvic narrowness; an API value less than 14.19 would confirm a narrow pelvis.

Las medidas del estrecho superior de la pelvis pueden calcularse mediante el Índice Pelviano Anterior. El objetivo del estudio fue determinar la validez externa y el punto de corte del API, para clasificar pelvis estrechas de las normales. Seleccionamos 214 mujeres de 15 a 55 años, 171 tuvieron parto vaginal y 43 mediante cesárea por DFP de origen materno, en quienes se calculó el API, del cual se estableció su diferencia de medias con un error alfa de <0,05. Se determinaron valores máximos de sensibilidad y especificidad, curva ROC e índice de Youden. La t de Student dio un p-valor=0,000 de la diferencia de medias entre las mujeres de tuvieron parto vaginal y las que fueron sometidas a cesárea por DFP de origen materno; el valor del área bajo la curva ROC fue 0,758 (IC 95% 0,695 - 0,814) con un p- valor=0,0001. La máxima sensibilidad (74,42 %. IC 95%: 58,8 % a 86,5 %) y máxima especificidad (73,10 %. IC 95%: 65,8 % a 79,6 %), produjeron un índice de Youden de 0,475 (IC 95% 0,283 - 0,590) el cual está asociado al valor 15,44 (IC 95% 14,19 - 15,83) de la escala del API. El API es una buena herramienta de predicción de mujeres con sospecha de pelvis estrecha y permite su clasificación en tres tipos de pelvis: un valor de API de mas de 15,83 indicaría pelvis aptas para un parto vaginal; un valor de API entre 14,19 y 15,83 se sospecharía de estrechez pélvica; un valor de API menor a 14,19 confirmaría una pelvis estrecha.

A prospective validation and comparison of three multivariate models for prediction of difficult intubation in adult patients

Abstract Purpose Several bedside clinical tests have been proposed to predict difficult tracheal intubation. Unfortunately, when used alone, these tests show less than ideal prediction performance. Some multivariate tests have been proposed considering that the combination of some criteria could lead to better prediction performance. The goal of our research was to compare three previously described multivariate models in a group of adult patients undergoing general anesthesia. Methods This study included 220 patients scheduled for elective surgery under general anesthesia. A standardized airway evaluation which included modified Mallampati class (MM), thyromental distance (TMD), mouth opening distance (MOD), head and neck movement (HNM), and jaw protrusion capacity was performed before anesthesia. Multivariate models described by El-Ganzouri et al., Naguib et al., and Langeron et al. were calculated using the airway data. After anesthesia induction, an anesthesiologist performed the laryngoscopic classification and tracheal intubation. The sensitivity, specificity, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the models were calculated. Results The overall incidence of difficult laryngoscopic view (DLV) was 12.7%. The area under curve (AUC) for the Langeron, Naguib, and El-Ganzouri models were 0.834, 0.805, and 0.752, respectively, (Langeron > El-Ganzouri, p= 0.004; Langeron = Naguib, p= 0.278; Naguib = El-Ganzouri, p= 0.101). The sensitivities were 85.7%, 67.9%, and 35.7% for the Langeron, Naguib, and El-Ganzouri models, respectively. Conclusion The Langeron model had higher overall prediction performance than that of the El-Ganzouri model. Additionally, the Langeron score had higher sensitivity than the Naguib and El-Ganzouri scores, and therefore yielded a lower incidence of false negatives.

Utilidad de la proteína C-reactiva para determinar la gravedad de infección por SARS-CoV-2 en Perú / Usefulness of C-reactive protein to determine the severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Peru

INTRODUCCIÓN: En los últimos años se han estudiado diversos biomarcadores para determinar los casos graves de COVID-19. La proteína C-reactiva (PCR) ha mostrado alta sensibilidad en la identificación de pacientes con enfermedad grave y utilidad comparable a la tomografía. OBJETIVO: Determinar la utilidad de la PCR para predecir gravedad de la infección por SARS-CoV-2 en pacientes hospitalizados en el Centro Médico Naval del Perú durante el periodo enero-septiembre del año 2021. MÉTODOS: Se empleó un diseño de tipo cuantitativo, observacional, analítico, retrospectivo, y de tipo prueba diagnóstica. Se calculó un tamaño muestral de 503 pacientes, quienes fueron divididos en dos grupos de acuerdo a su gravedad. RESULTADOS: Se determinó un punto de corte óptimo de 10,92 mg/L de los valores de PCR para el diagnóstico de enfermedad grave por COVID-19. Se calculó un área bajo la curva (AUC) de 0,762 y se obtuvieron valores de sensibilidad, especificidad, valores predictores positivo, negativo y precisión diagnóstica de 78,88%, 66,4%; 41,42%; 87,01%; y 67,27%, respectivamente. El normograma de Fagan mostró una probabilidad posprueba de 41%. En el modelo ajustado fueron significativas la PCR (ORa = 4,853; IC95% 2,987-7,886; p = 0,001), además de la ferritina (ORa = 1,001; IC 95%: 1,001-1,002; p = 0,001) e hipotiroidismo (OR ajustado = 4,899; IC 95%: 1,272-18,872; p = 0,021). CONCLUSIONES: El presente estudio mostró la asociación entre la PCR y la gravedad de infección por SARS-CoV-2 en un modelo ajustado, mostrando su potencial utilidad y contribuyendo a determinar el punto de corte de la PCR en población peruana y su comparación a nivel internacional.

BACKGROUND: Recently, many biomarkers have been studied to determine severe cases of COVID-19. C-reactive protein (CRP) has shown high sensitivity in identifying patients with severe disease and utility comparable to computed tomography. AIM: To determine the usefulness of CRP to predict the severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients hospitalized at the Naval Medical Center of Peru during the period January-September in the year 2021. METHODS: A quantitative, observational, analytical, retrospective, and diagnostic test type design was used. A sample size of 503 patients was calculated, which were divided into two groups according to their severity. RESULTS: An optimal cut-off point of 10.92 mg/L for CRP levels was determined for the diagnosis of severe COVID-19. An area under the curve (AUC) of 0.762 was calculated and sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and diagnostic accuracy values of 78.88%, 66.4%; 41.42%; 87.01%; and 67.27%; respectively. Fagan's normogram showed a post-test probability of 41%. In the adjusted model, CRP (aOR = 4.853; 95% CI 2.987-7.886; p = 0.001), ferritin (aOR = 1.001; 95% CI: 1.001-1.002; p = 0.001) and hypothyroidism (adjusted OR = 4899; 95% CI: 1272-18872; p = 0.021) showed significance. CONCLUSIONS: The present study showed an association between CRP and the severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection in an adjusted model, showing its potential utility and contributing to determine the cut-off point of CRP in the Peruvian population and its international comparison.

Precisión diagnóstica de una versión abreviada de las pruebas de patrones de frecuencia y patrones de duración para la evaluación del ordenamiento auditivo temporal / Diagnostic accuracy of an abbreviated version of the frequency pattern and duration pattern tests for the evaluation of auditory temporal ordering

Introducción: Las pruebas de patrones de frecuencia y patrones de duración son consideradas los gold standard de evaluación del ordenamiento auditivo temporal. A pesar de su amplia difusión, la extensión y duración de estas pruebas dificultan su utilización dentro de baterías de evaluación del procesamiento auditivo. Sin embargo, dadas sus características estructurales, pareciera ser posible reducirlas sin perder su precisión diagnóstica. Objetivo: Determinar las propiedades diagnósticas de versiones abreviadas de las pruebas de patrones de frecuencia y patrones de duración. Material y Método: Se realizó un estudio transversal de diseño observacional analítico. Se evaluaron 166 oídos de 88 sujetos con edades entre 18 y 33 años, los cuales fueron clasificados con normalidad o alteración del ordenamiento auditivo temporal. Se utilizaron las pruebas originales de Auditec de 30 ítems por oído como referencia y los primeros 10 ítems de cada oído como versión abreviada. Resultados: La versión abreviada de la prueba de patrones de frecuencia obtuvo una sensibilidad de un 94,33%, una especificidad del 94,29% y un área bajo la curva ROC de 0,980. La versión abreviada de la prueba de patrones de duración obtuvo una sensibilidad de un 89,58%, especificidad del 71,88% y un área bajo la curva ROC de 0,916. Ambas versiones tuvieron un índice de concordancia adecuado. Conclusiones: Las versiones abreviadas de la prueba de patrones de frecuencia y patrones de duración cuentan con excelentes propiedades diagnósticas para la evaluación del ordenamiento auditivo temporal y pueden ser utilizadas de manera intercambiable con las versiones originales.

Introduction: The frequency and duration pattern tests are considered the gold standard for assessing auditory temporal ordering. Despite their wide dissemination, the length and duration of these tests make it difficult to use them within auditory processing assessment batteries. However, given their structural characteristics, reducing them without losing their diagnostic accuracy seems possible. Aim: Determine the diagnostic properties of abbreviated versions of the Frequency Patterns and Duration Patterns tests. Material and Method: A cross-sectional study with an analytical observational design was carried out. 166 ears of 88 subjects aged between 18 and 33 years were evaluated, classified as normal or altered in temporal auditory order. The original Auditec tests of 30 items per ear were used as a reference, and the first 10 items of each ear as an abbreviated version. Results: The abbreviated version of the frequency patterns test obtained a sensitivity of 94.33%, a specificity of 94.29%, and an area under the ROC curve of 0.980. The abbreviated version of the duration pattern test obtained a sensitivity of 89.58%, a specificity of 71.88%, and an area under the ROC curve of 0.916. Both versions had an adequate concordance index. Conclusion: The abbreviated versions of the frequency patterns and duration patterns test have excellent diagnostic properties for assessing auditory temporal ordering and can be used interchangeably with the original versions.

Second to fourth digit ratio in women with breast cancer / Relación del segundo al cuarto dígito en mujeres con cáncer de mama

SUMMARY: Digit ratio established in utero is positivelly correlated with intrauterine level of estrogen. Since the breast cancer is related to excessive and prolonged exposure to estrogen, digit ratio might be considered as useful marker in breast cancer risk assessment. The aim of the present study was to compare digit ratios in breast cancer patients and healthy controls. The study group consisted of 98 breast cancer patients aged between 29 to 84 years while the control group included 141 healthy women aged between 21 and 67 years. After collecting anamnestic data concerning menopausal status, the length of second and fourth fingers were measured and the digit ratios were calculated for both hands, as well as the difference between right and left digit ratio. Digit ratio was significantly higher on right hand in breast cancer patients compaired to healthy controls (1.003±0.05 vs. 0.990±0.03). Right digit ratio showed better predictive capacity for the breast cancer development then the left (AUC:0.609 vs. 0.541). Negative statistically significant correlation between right digit ratio and the age of breast cancer diagnosis was observed (r=-0.271). Higher values of right digit ratio in women with breast cancer when compared to healthy women suggest their higher prenatal estrogen exposure that confirms the importance of digit ratio determination in breast cancer risk assessment.

La proporción de dígitos establecida en el útero, se correlaciona positivamente con el nivel intrauterino de estrógeno. Dado que el cáncer de mama está relacionado con una exposición excesiva y prolongada a los estrógenos, la proporción de dígitos podría considerarse un marcador útil en la evaluación del riesgo de cáncer de mama. El objetivo del presente estudio fue comparar proporciones de dígitos en pacientes con cáncer de mama y controles sanos. El grupo de estudio consistió en 98 pacientes con cáncer de mama con edades comprendidas entre los 29 y los 84 años, mientras que el grupo de control incluyó a 141 mujeres sanas con edades comprendidas entre los 21 y los 67 años. Después de recopilar datos anamnésticos sobre el estado menopáusico, se midió la longitud de los dedos segundo y anular y se calcularon las proporciones de los dedos para ambas manos, así como la diferencia entre la proporción de los dedos derecho e izquierdo. La proporción de dígitos fue significativamente mayor en la mano derecha en pacientes con cáncer de mama en comparación con controles sanos (1,003 ± 0,05 frente a 0,990 ± 0,03). La proporción del dígito derecho mostró una mejor capacidad predictiva para el desarrollo de cáncer de mama que el izquierdo (AUC: 0.609 vs. 0.541). Se observó una correlación estadísticamente significativa negativa entre la proporción de dígitos derechos y la edad del diagnóstico de cáncer de mama (r=-0,271). Los valores más altos de la proporción de dígitos derechos en mujeres con cáncer de mama en comparación con mujeres sanas sugieren una mayor exposición prenatal a estrógenos que confirma la importancia de la determinación de la proporción de dígitos en la evaluación del riesgo de cáncer de mama.

Validation of a Simple Instrument of Fast Application to Track Disability in Leprosy Patients / Validação de um instrumento simples e de aplicação rápida para rastrear incapacidade em pacientes com hanseníase

Abstract Objective To evaluate a simple and fast diagnostic instrument to be used by any health professional to track the disability presented by leprosy patients. Method Validation study of a diagnostic test performed in a sample of 156 leprosy patients to track functional disability through the shortened disabilities of arm, shoulder, and hand (QuickDASH) questionnaire. The simplified neurological assessment proposed by the World Health Organization was used as a reference. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed to determine the cutoff point of QuickDASH that best discriminated patients with functional disability caused by leprosy. Results We identified 86 (55.5%) patients with functional disability by simplified neurological evaluation. The performance of the QuickDASH instrument showed that, at a cut-off point of 30 points, the sensitivity and specificity were 72.1% and 68.1% (accuracy of 70.3%), respectively, to identify functional disability, with a positive predictive value of 73.8%. Conclusion The QuickDASH instrument showed good accuracy to track functional disability in leprosy patients, and it may be useful in clinical practice of primary and general outpatient care, with the goal of identifying patients who need specialized reference for the prevention and treatment of this condition.

Resumo Objetivo Avaliar um instrumento diagnóstico simples e rápido a ser utilizado por qualquer profissional da saúde para rastrear a incapacidade apresentada por pacientes com hanseníase. Método Estudo de validação de teste de diagnóstico realizado em uma amostra de 156 pacientes com hanseníase para rastrear incapacidade funcional, por meio do questionário abreviado disabilities of arm, shoulder, and hand (QuickDASH). A avaliação neurológica simplificada proposta pela Organização Mundial da Saúde foi utilizada como referência. Construiu-se a curva de características operacionais do receptor (ROC) para determinação do ponto de corte do QuickDASH que melhor discriminou pacientes com incapacidade funcional provocada pela hanseníase. Resultados Foram identificados 86 (55,5%) pacientes com incapacidade funcional pela avaliação neurológica simplificada. O desempenho do QuickDASH mostrou que, em ponto de corte de 30 pontos, a sensibilidade e a especificidade foram de 72,1% e 68,1% (acurácia de 70,3%), respectivamente, para identificar incapacidade funcional, com um valor preditivo positivo de 73,8%. Conclusão O instrumento QuickDASH mostrou boa acurácia para rastrear incapacidade funcional no paciente com hanseníase, podendo ser útil na prática clínica da atenção básica e ambulatorial geral, com o objetivo de identificar pacientes que necessitam de referência especializada para sua prevenção e tratamento.

Free PSA performs better than total PSA in predicting prostate volume in Chinese men with PSA levels of 2.5-9.9 ng ml-1 / 亚洲男科学杂志(英文版)

This study investigated whether free prostate-specific antigen (fPSA) performs better than total PSA (tPSA) in predicting prostate volume (PV) in Chinese men with different PSA levels. A total of 5463 men with PSA levels of <10 ng ml-1 and without prostate cancer diagnosis were included in this study. Patients were classified into four groups: PSA <2.5 ng ml-1, 2.5-3.9 ng ml-1, 4.0-9.9 ng ml-1, and 2.5-9.9 ng ml-1. Pearson/Spearman's correlation coefficient (r) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate the ability of tPSA and fPSA to predict PV. The correlation coefficient between tPSA and PV in the PSA <2.5 ng ml-1 cohort (r = 0.422; P < 0.001) was markedly higher than those of the cohorts with PSA levels of 2.5-3.9 ng ml-1, 4.0-9.9 ng ml-1, and 2.5-9.9 ng ml-1 (r = 0.114, 0.167, and 0.264, respectively; all P ≤ 0.001), while fPSA levels did not differ significantly among different PSA groups. Area under ROC curve (AUC) analyses revealed that the performance of fPSA in predicting PV ≥40 ml (AUC: 0.694, 0.714, and 0.727) was better than that of tPSA (AUC = 0.545, 0.561, and 0.611) in men with PSA levels of 2.5-3.9 ng ml-1, 4.0-9.9 ng ml-1, and 2.5-9.9 ng ml-1, respectively, but not at PSA levels of <2.5 ng ml-1 (AUC: 0.713 vs 0.720). These findings suggest that the relationship between tPSA and PV may vary with PSA level and that fPSA is more powerful at predicting PV only in the ''gray zone'' (PSA levels of 2.5-9.9 ng ml-1), but its performance was similar to that of tPSA at PSA levels of <2.5 ng ml-1.

Study on HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure risk factors and novel predictive survival model / 中华肝脏病杂志

Objective: To identify the predisposing factors, clinical characteristics, and risk factors of disease progression to establish a novel predictive survival model and evaluate its application value for hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure. Methods: 153 cases of HBV-ACLF were selected according to the guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of liver failure (2018 edition) of the Chinese Medical Association Hepatology Branch. Predisposing factors, the basic liver disease stage, therapeutic drugs, clinical characteristics, and factors affecting survival status were analyzed. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to screen prognostic factors and establish a novel predictive survival model. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was used to evaluate predictive value with the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and the Chronic Liver Failure Consortium Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure score (CLIF-C ACLF). Results: 80.39% (123/153) based on hepatitis B cirrhosis had developed ACLF. HBV-ACLF's main inducing factors were the discontinuation of nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) and the application of hepatotoxic drugs, including Chinese patent medicine/Chinese herbal medicine, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, anti-tuberculosis drugs, central nervous system drugs, anti-tumor drugs, etc. 34.64% of cases had an unknown inducement. The most common clinical symptoms at onset were progressive jaundice, poor appetite, and fatigue. The short-term mortality rate was significantly higher in patients complicated with hepatic encephalopathy, upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage, hepatorenal syndrome, and infection (P < 0.05). Lactate dehydrogenase, albumin, the international normalized ratio, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, hepatic encephalopathy, and upper gastrointestinal bleeding were the independent predictors for the survival status of patients. The LAINeu model was established. The area under the curve for evaluating the survival of HBV-ACLF was 0.886, which was significantly higher than the MELD and CLIF-C ACLF scores (P < 0.05), and the prognosis was worse when the LAINeu score ≥ -3.75. Conclusion: Discontinuation of NAs and the application of hepatotoxic drugs are common predisposing factors for HBV-ACLF. Hepatic decompensation-related complications and infection accelerate the disease's progression. The LAINeu model can predict patient survival conditions more accurately.

Arterial partial pressure of oxygen and procalcitonin combined with ROX index predict the timing of tracheal intubation in patients with acute severe pancreatitis / 中华危重病急救医学

OBJECTIVE@#To investigate the efficacy of arterial partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2), procalcitonin (PCT) combined with ROX index in predicting the timing of tracheal intubation in patients with acute severe pancreatitis (SAP).@*METHODS@#A case-control study was conducted. A total of 148 patients with SAP admitted to Hunan Provincial People's Hospital from January 2019 to December 2022 were selected as the research objects. According to whether endotracheal intubation was used after admission during hospitalization, the patients were divided into the intubation group (102 cases) and non-intubation group (46 cases). Gender, age, white blood cell count (WBC), lymphocyte count (LYM), platelet count (PLT), C-reactive protein (CRP), hemoglobin (Hb), PCT, PaO2, arterial partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PaCO2), arterial bicarbonate ion (HCO3-) 1 day after admission, arterial lactic acid (Lac), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), heart rate (HR), respiratory rate (RR), pulse oxygen saturation (SpO2), oxygenation index (PaO2/FiO2), blood pressure, worst ROX index (ROX index = SpO2/FiO2/RR) within 30 minutes of admission and 30 minutes before intubation of the two groups were measured. Multivariate Logistic regression was used to analyze the independent risk factors for the timing of endotracheal intubation in patients with SAP. The receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was used to determine the optimal predictive cut-off value for endotracheal intubation.@*RESULTS@#There were no significant differences in age, gender, WBC, LYM, CRP, Hb, LDH, HR and blood pressure at admission between the two groups. The PLT, Lac, PCT and RR in the intubation group were significantly higher than those in the un-intubation group, and HCO3-, PaO2, SpO2, PaO2/FiO2, the worst ROX index within 30 minutes after admission and 30 minutes before intubation were significantly lower than those in the non-intubation group (all P < 0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that the worst ROX index within 30 minutes before intubation was the largest negative influencing factor for the timing of tracheal intubation in SAP patients [odds ratio (OR) = 0.723, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 0.568-0.896, P = 0.000], followed by PaO2 (OR = 0.872, 95%CI was 0.677-1.105, P < 0.001). PCT was the positive influencing factor (OR = 1.605, 95%CI was 1.240-2.089, P < 0.001). ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of PaO2, PCT, the worst ROX index within 30 minutes before intubation and the combination to evaluate the tracheal intubation time of patients with SAP were 0.715, 0.702, 0.722 and 0.808, the sensitivity was 78.1%, 75.0%, 81.5% and 89.3%, the specificity was 66.7%, 59.0%, 73.2% and 86.4%, and the best cut-off value was 60.23 mmHg (1 mmHg ≈ 0.133 kPa), 2.72 μg/L, 4.85, and 0.58, respectively. The AUC of the combination of PaO2, PCT and the worst ROX index within 30 minutes before intubation predicted the timing of tracheal intubation in patients with SAP was significantly greater than using each index alone (all P < 0.01).@*CONCLUSIONS@#The worst ROX index within 30 minutes before intubation combined with PaO2 and PCT is helpful for clinicians to make a decision for tracheal intubation in patients with SAP.

Establishment of a prognostic nomogram model for predicting acute renal injury in patients with moderate and severe burns / 中华危重病急救医学

OBJECTIVE@#To establish a prediction model of acute kidney injury (AKI) in moderate and severe burn patients, so as to provide basic research evidence for early identification of burn-related AKI.@*METHODS@#Patients who were admitted to the department of plastic burn surgery of the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University from November 2018 to January 2021 were selected, and their clinical characteristics, laboratory examinations and other indicators were recorded. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to screen out the risk factors of AKI related to moderate and severe burns, and R software was used to establish the nomogram of moderate and severe burn patients complicated with AKI. The Bootstrap method model was used for internal verification by repeating sample for 1 000 times. Consistency index and calibration curve were used to evaluate the accuracy of the model, and the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) and the area under the curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the prediction efficiency, decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical utility of the model.@*RESULTS@#A total of 186 patients with moderate and severe burn were included, among which 54 patients suffered from AKI, and the incidence rate was 29.03%. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that the total burn surface area [TBSA; odds ratio (OR) = 1.072, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.031-1.115, P = 0.001], estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR; OR = 0.960, 95%CI was 0.931-0.990, P = 0.010), neutrophil (NEU; OR = 1.190, 95%CI was 1.021-1.386, P = 0.026), neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR; OR = 0.867, 95%CI was 0.770-0.977, P = 0.019), D-dimer (OR = 4.603, 95%CI was 1.792-11.822, P = 0.002) were the risk factors for patients with moderate and severe burn complicated with AKI. Taking the above indexes as predictive factors, a nomogram prediction model was established, the ROC curve was plotted with AUC of 0.998 (95%CI was 0.988-1.000). Optimum threshold of ROC curve was -0.862, the sensitivity was 98.0% and the specificity was 98.2%, and the consistency index was 0.998 (95%CI was 0.988-1.000). The calibration curve showed that the prognostic nomogram model was accurate, DCA showed that most patients can benefit from this model.@*CONCLUSIONS@#The burned patients with higher TBSA, NEU, NLR, D-dimer and lower eGFR tend to suffer from AKI. The nomogram based on the above five risk factors has high accuracy and clinical value, which can be used as a predictive tool to evaluate the risk of AKI in moderate and severe burn patients.

Clinical significance of early troponin I levels on the prognosis of patients with severe heat stroke / 中华危重病急救医学

OBJECTIVE@#To investigate the clinical significance of early troponin I (TnI) level in the prognosis of severe heat stroke.@*METHODS@#Clinical data of 131 patients with severe heat stroke in the intensive care unit (ICU) of the Affiliated Changzhou NO.2 People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University (study dataset) and ICU 67 patients with severe heat stroke in Jintan First People's Hospital of Changzhou (validation dataset) were retrospectively analyzed from June 2013 to September 2022. The patients were divided into survival group and death group according to 30-day outcomes. TnI was collected within 24 hours after admission to the emergency department. Cox regression analysis was performed to analyze the risk factors of severe heat stroke death. Spearman correlation test was used to analyze the correlation between TnI and heart rate, and peripheral systolic blood pressure. The receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was drawn to evaluate the predictive value of TnI for death in patients with severe heat stroke. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was conducted to assess the clinical net benefit rate of TnI prediction. Grouping by TnI cut-off value, Kaplan-Meier survival curve was used to analyze 30-day cumulative survival. Sensitivity analysis included modified Possion regression, E-value, and subgroup forest map was used to evaluate the mortality risk of TnI in different populations. External dataset was used to verify the predictive value of TnI.@*RESULTS@#The death group had significantly higher TnI compared to the survival group [μg/L: 0.623 (0.196, 1.510) vs. 0.084 (0.019, 0.285), P < 0.01]. Multivariate Cox regression analysis after adjusting for confounding factors showed that TnI was an independent risk factor for death [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.885, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.528-2.325,P < 0.001]. Spearman correlation test showed that TnI was positively correlated with heart rate (r = 0.537, P < 0.001) and negatively correlated with peripheral systolic blood pressure (r = -0.611, P < 0.001). ROC curve showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the TnI (0.817) was better than that of the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II, 0.756). The DCA curve showed that the range of clinical net benefit rate of TnI (6.21%-20.00%) was higher than that of APACHE II score (5.14%-20.00%). Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed that patients in the low-risk group (TnI ≤ 0.106) had a significantly higher 30-day survival rate than that in the high-risk group (TnI > 0.106) group (Log-Rank test: χ2 = 17.350, P < 0.001). Modified Possion regression with adjustment for confounding factors showed that TnI was still an independent risk factor for death in patients with severe heat stroke [relative risk (RR) = 1.425, 95%CI was 1.284-1.583, P < 0.001]. The E-value was 2.215. The subgroup forest plot showed that the risk factors of TnI were obvious in male patients and patients ≤ 60 years old (male: HR = 1.731, 95%CI was 1.402-2.138, P < 0.001; ≤ 60 years old: HR = 1.651, 95%CI was 1.362-2.012, P < 0.001). In the validation dataset, ROC curve analysis showed that the AUC (0.836) of TnI predicting the prognosis of severe heat stroke was still higher than the APACHE II score (0.763).@*CONCLUSIONS@#Early elevation of TnI is a high-risk factor for death in patients with severe heat stroke, and it has a good predictive value for death.

Analysis of clinical characteristics and risk factors of early heat stroke-related acute liver injury / 中华危重病急救医学

OBJECTIVE@#To analyze the clinical characteristics and risk factors of early acute liver injury in patients with heat stroke (HS), and to provide basis for early identification of HS-related liver injury and its pathogenesis in clinical practice.@*METHODS@#The clinical data of patients with HS admitted to the department of critical care medicine of Haian People's Hospital from June 2015 to August 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. The patients with HS were divided into early liver injury group and early non-liver injury group according to the occurrence of acute liver injury within 24 hours of admission. The differences of basic data, clinical data, laboratory indexes and clinical outcomes of the two groups were analyzed. Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors for early HS-related acute liver injury, and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn to evaluate their value in predicting the occurrence of early HS-related acute liver injury.@*RESULTS@#A total of 76 patients with HS were enrolled, and 46 patients with acute liver injury, accounting for 60.53%. In the early liver injury group, 14 patients (30.43%) had elevated aminotransferase alone, 9 patients (19.57%) had elevated total bilirubin (TBil) alone, and 23 patients (50.00%) had elevated both aminotransferase and TBil. Among the patients with elevated aminotransferases, 24 patients (64.87%) had mild elevation, 5 patients (13.51%) had moderate elevation, 8 patients (21.62%) had severe elevation. Compared with the early non-liver injury group, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), arterial blood lactate (Lac), interleukin-6 (IL-6), procalcitonin (PCT), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), TBil, γ-gamma glutamyl transferase (γ-GGT), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), creatine kinase (CK), MB isoenzyme of creatine kinase (CK-MB), cardiac troponin I (cTnI), myoglobin (MYO), N-terminal B-type pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), prothrombin time (PT), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), D-dimer in the early liver injury group were significantly increased, while platelet count (PLT) were significantly decreased within 24 hours after admission, the 28-day mortality was significantly increased [28.26% (13/46) vs. 6.67% (2/30)], and the differences were statistically significant (all P < 0.05). Univariate Logistic regression analysis showed that APACHE II score, SOFA score, PLT, Lac, IL-6, PCT, γ-GGT, LDH, CK, CK-MB, cTnI, MYO, PT, APTT, D-dimer were risk factors of early HS-related acute liver injury (all P < 0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that PLT, IL-6, and LDH were independent risk factors of early HS-related acute liver injury [odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) were 0.986 (0.974-0.998), 1.027 (1.012-1.041), and 1.002 (1.000-1.004), all P < 0.05]. The ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of PLT, IL-6 and LDH for predicting the occurrence of early HS-related acute liver injury was 0.672 (95%CI was 0.548-0.797), 0.897 (95%CI was 0.824-0.971) and 0.833 (95%CI was 0.739-0.927), respectively. IL-6 had the highest predictive value for early HS-related liver injury. When the optimal diagnostic threshold of IL-6 was 48.25 ng/L, the sensitivity was 95.7%, the specificity was 73.3%, and the predictive value of PLT was the lowest.@*CONCLUSIONS@#The early HS-related liver injury is mainly manifested as the simultaneous elevation of aminotransferase and TBil, and most of cases are mild liver injury. PLT, IL-6 and LDH are independent risk factors of early HS-related acute liver injury.

Establishment of risk prediction nomograph model for sepsis related acute respiratory distress syndrome / 中华危重病急救医学

OBJECTIVE@#To explore the risk factors of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in patients with sepsis and to construct a risk nomogram model.@*METHODS@#The clinical data of 234 sepsis patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of Tianjin Hospital from January 2019 to May 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were divided into non-ARDS group (156 cases) and ARDS group (78 cases) according to the presence or absence of ARDS. The gender, age, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, smoking history, history of alcoholism, temperature, respiratory rate (RR), mean arterial pressure (MAP), pulmonary infection, white blood cell count (WBC), hemoglobin (Hb), platelet count (PLT), prothrombin time (PT), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), fibrinogen (FIB), D-dimer, oxygenation index (PaO2/FiO2), lactic acid (Lac), procalcitonin (PCT), brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), albumin (ALB), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), serum creatinine (SCr), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) were compared between the two groups. Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression were used to analyze the risk factors of sepsis related ARDS. Based on the screened independent risk factors, a nomogram prediction model was constructed, and Bootstrap method was used for internal verification. The receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was drawn, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was calculated to verify the prediction and accuracy of the model.@*RESULTS@#There were no significant differences in gender, age, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, smoking history, alcoholism history, temperature, WBC, Hb, PLT, PT, APTT, FIB, PCT, BNP and SCr between the two groups. There were significant differences in RR, MAP, pulmonary infection, D-dimer, PaO2/FiO2, Lac, ALB, BUN, APACHE II score and SOFA score (all P < 0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that increased RR, low MAP, pulmonary infection, high Lac and high APACHE II score were independent risk factors for sepsis related ARDS [RR: odds ratio (OR) = 1.167, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.019-1.336; MAP: OR = 0.962, 95%CI was 0.932-0.994; pulmonary infection: OR = 0.428, 95%CI was 0.189-0.966; Lac: OR = 1.684, 95%CI was 1.036-2.735; APACHE II score: OR = 1.577, 95%CI was 1.202-2.067; all P < 0.05]. Based on the above independent risk factors, a risk nomograph model was established to predict sepsis related ARDS (accuracy was 81.62%, sensitivity was 66.67%, specificity was 89.10%). The predicted values were basically consistent with the measured values, and the AUC was 0.866 (95%CI was 0.819-0.914).@*CONCLUSIONS@#Increased RR, low MAP, pulmonary infection, high Lac and high APACHE II score are independent risk factors for sepsis related ARDS. Establishment of a risk nomograph model based on these factors may guide to predict the risk of ARDS in sepsis patients.

Analysis of lymphocyte subsets in patients with sepsis and its impact on prognosis / 中华危重病急救医学

OBJECTIVE@#To explore the characteristics of changes in peripheral blood lymphocyte subsets in patients with sepsis in intensive care unit (ICU) and analyze their predictive value for prognosis.@*METHODS@#The clinical data of sepsis patients admitted to the surgical intensive care unit (SICU) of the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2020 to December 2021 were analyzed retrospectively. The patients met the diagnostic criteria of Sepsis-3 and were ≥ 18 years old. Peripheral venous blood samples were collected from all patients on the next morning after admission to SICU for routine blood test and peripheral blood lymphocyte subsets. According to the 28-day survival, the patients were divided into two groups, and the differences in immune indexes between the two groups were compared. Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the risk factors of immune indexes that affect prognosis.@*RESULTS@#(1) A total of 279 patients with sepsis were enrolled in the experiment, of which 198 patients survived at 28 days (28-day survival rate 71.0%), and 81 patients died (28-day mortality 29.0%). There were no significant differences in age (years old: 57.81±1.71 vs. 54.99±1.05) and gender (male: 60.5% vs. 63.6%) between the death group and the survival group (both P > 0.05), and the baseline data was comparable.(2) Acute physiology and chronic health evalution II (APACHE II: 22.06±0.08 vs. 14.08±0.52, P < 0.001), neutrophil percentage [NEU%: (88.90±1.09)% vs. (84.12±0.77)%, P = 0.001], procalcitonin [PCT (μg/L): 11.97±2.73 vs. 5.76±1.08, P = 0.011], platelet distribution width (fL: 16.81±0.10 vs. 16.57±0.06, P = 0.029) were higher than those in the survival group, while lymphocyte percentage [LYM%: (6.98±0.78)% vs. (10.59±0.86)%, P = 0.012], lymphocyte count [LYM (×109/L): 0.70±0.06 vs. 0.98±0.49, P = 0.002], and platelet count [PLT (×109/L): 151.38±13.96 vs. 205.80±9.38, P = 0.002], and thrombocytocrit [(0.15±0.01)% vs. (0.19±0.07)%, P = 0.012] were lower than those in the survival group. (3) There was no statistically significant difference in the percentage of lymphocyte subsets between the death group and the survival group, but the absolute value of LYM (pieces/μL: 650.24±84.67 vs. 876.64±38.02, P = 0.005), CD3+ absolute value (pieces/μL: 445.30±57.33 vs. 606.84±29.25, P = 0.006), CD3+CD4+ absolute value (pieces/μL: 239.97±26.96 vs. 353.49±18.59, P = 0.001), CD19+ absolute value (pieces/μL: 111.10±18.66 vs. 150.30±10.15, P = 0.049) in the death group was lower than those in the survival group. Other lymphocyte subsets in the death group, such as CD3+CD8+ absolute value (pieces/μL: 172.40±24.34 vs. 211.22±11.95, P = 0.112), absolute value of natural killer cell [NK (pieces/μL): 101.26±18.15 vs. 114.72±7.64, P = 0.420], absolute value of natural killer T cell [NKT (pieces/μL): 33.22±5.13 vs. 39.43±2.85, P = 0.262], CD4-CD8- absolute value (pieces/μL: 41.07±11.07 vs. 48.84±3.31, P = 0.510), CD4+CD8+ absolute value (pieces/μL: 3.39±1.45 vs. 3.47±0.36, P = 0.943) were not significantly different from those in the survival group. (4)Logistic regression analysis showed that lymphocyte subsets were not selected as immune markers with statistical significance for the prognosis of sepsis.@*CONCLUSIONS@#The changes of immune indexes in sepsis patients are closely related to their prognosis. Early monitoring of the above indexes can accurately evaluate the condition and prognosis of sepsis patients.

Construction of a predictive model for in-hospital mortality of sepsis patients in intensive care unit based on machine learning / 中华危重病急救医学

OBJECTIVE@#To analyze the risk factors of in-hospital death in patients with sepsis in the intensive care unit (ICU) based on machine learning, and to construct a predictive model, and to explore the predictive value of the predictive model.@*METHODS@#The clinical data of patients with sepsis who were hospitalized in the ICU of the Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University from April 2015 to April 2021 were retrospectively analyzed,including demographic information, vital signs, complications, laboratory examination indicators, diagnosis, treatment, etc. Patients were divided into death group and survival group according to whether in-hospital death occurred. The cases in the dataset (70%) were randomly selected as the training set for building the model, and the remaining 30% of the cases were used as the validation set. Based on seven machine learning models including logistic regression (LR), K-nearest neighbor (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and artificial neural network (ANN), a prediction model for in-hospital mortality of sepsis patients was constructed. The receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the seven models from the aspects of identification, calibration and clinical application, respectively. In addition, the predictive model based on machine learning was compared with the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) models.@*RESULTS@#A total of 741 patients with sepsis were included, of which 390 were discharged after improvement, 351 died in hospital, and the in-hospital mortality was 47.4%. There were significant differences in gender, age, APACHE II score, SOFA score, Glasgow coma score (GCS), heart rate, oxygen index (PaO2/FiO2), mechanical ventilation ratio, mechanical ventilation time, proportion of norepinephrine (NE) used, maximum NE, lactic acid (Lac), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), albumin (ALB), serum creatinine (SCr), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), blood uric acid (BUA), pH value, base excess (BE), and K+ between the death group and the survival group. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of RF, XGBoost, LR, ANN, DT, SVM, KNN models, SOFA score, and APACHE II score for predicting in-hospital mortality of sepsis patients were 0.871, 0.846, 0.751, 0.747, 0.677, 0.657, 0.555, 0.749 and 0.760, respectively. Among all the models, the RF model had the highest precision (0.750), accuracy (0.785), recall (0.773), and F1 score (0.761), and best discrimination. The calibration curve showed that the RF model performed best among the seven machine learning models. DCA curve showed that the RF model exhibited greater net benefit as well as threshold probability compared to other models, indicating that the RF model was the best model with good clinical utility.@*CONCLUSIONS@#The machine learning model can be used as a reliable tool for predicting in-hospital mortality in sepsis patients. RF models has the best predictive performance, which is helpful for clinicians to identify high-risk patients and implement early intervention to reduce mortality.

Value of fractional flow reserve derived from coronary computed tomographic angiography and plaque quantitative analysis in predicting adverse outcomes of non-obstructive coronary heart disease / 中华危重病急救医学

OBJECTIVE@#To investigate the value of coronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA)-based fractional flow reserve (CT-FFR) and plaque quantitative analysis in predicting adverse outcomes in patients with non-obstructive coronary heart disease (CAD).@*METHODS@#Clinical data of patients with non-obstructive CAD who underwent CCTA at the Affiliated Hospital of Jiangnan University from March 2014 to March 2018 were retrospectively analyzed and followed up, and the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) was recorded. The patients were divided into MACE and non-MACE groups according to the occurrence of MACE. The clinical data, CCTA plaque characteristics including plaque length, stenosis degree, minimum lumen area, total plaque volume, non-calcified plaque volume, calcified plaque volume, plaque burden (PB) and remodelling index (RI), and CT-FFR were compared between the two groups. Multivaritate Cox proportional risk model was used to evaluate the relationship between clinical factors, CCTA parameters and MACE. The receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was used to assess the predictive power of outcome prediction model based on different CCTA parameters.@*RESULTS@#Finally 217 patients were included, of which 43 (19.8%) had MACE and 174 (80.2%) did not. The median follow-up interval was 24 (16, 30) months. The CCTA showed that patients in the MACE group had more severe stenosis than that in the non-MACE group [(44.3±3.8)% vs. (39.5±2.5)%], larger total plaque volume and non-calcified plaque volume [total plaque volume (mm3): 275.1 (197.1, 376.9), non-calcified plaque volume (mm3): 161.5 (114.5, 307.8) vs. 117.9 (77.7, 185.5)], PB and RI were larger [PB: 50.2% (42.1%, 54.8%) vs. 45.1% (38.2%, 51.7%), RI: 1.19 (0.93, 1.29) vs. 1.03 (0.90, 1.22)], CT-FFR value was lower [0.85 (0.80, 0.88) vs. 0.92 (0.87, 0.97)], and the differences were statistically significant (all P < 0.05). Cox regression analysis showed that non-calcified plaques volume [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.005. 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.025-4.866], PB ≥ 50% (HR = 3.146, 95%CI was 1.443-6.906), RI ≥ 1.10 (HR = 2.223, 95%CI was 1.002-1.009) and CT-FFR ≤ 0.87 (HR = 2.615, 95%CI was 1.016-6.732) were independent predictors of MACE (all P < 0.05). The model based on CCTA stenosis degree+CT-FFR+quantitative plaque characteristics (including non-calcified plaque volume, RI, PB) [area under the ROC curve (AUC) = 0.91, 95%CI was 0.87-0.95] had significantly better predictive efficacy for adverse outcomes than the model based on CCTA stenosis degree (AUC = 0.63, 95%CI was 0.54-0.71) and the model based on CCTA stenosis degree+CT-FFR (AUC = 0.71, 95%CI was 0.63-0.79; both P < 0.01).@*CONCLUSIONS@#CT-FFR and plaque quantitative analysis based on CCTA are helpful in predicting adverse outcomes in patients with non-obstructive CAD. Non-calcified plaque volume, RI, PB and CT-FFR are important predictors of MACE. Compared with the prediction model based on stenosis degree and CT-FFR, the combined plaque quantitative index can significantly improve the prediction efficiency of adverse outcomes in patients with non-obstructive CAD.

Prognostic evaluation of coagulation indicators for patients with acute fatty liver of pregnancy / 中华危重病急救医学

OBJECTIVE@#To explore the relevant clinical test indicators that affect the prognosis of patients with acute fatty liver of pregnancy (AFLP), and to provide a basis for early diagnosis and correct selection of treatment methods.@*METHODS@#A retrospective analysis was conducted. Clinical data of AFLP patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) of the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2010 to May 2021 were collected. According to the 28-day prognosis, the patients were divided into death group and survival group. The clinical data, laboratory examination indicators, and prognosis of the two groups were compared, and further binary Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients. At the same time, the values of related indicators at each time point (24, 48, 72 hours) after the start of treatment were recorded. The receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) of prothrombin time (PT) and international normalized ratio (INR) for evaluating the prognosis of patients at each time point was drawn, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the predictive value of relevant indicators at each time point for the prognosis of AFLP patients.@*RESULTS@#A total of 64 AFLP patients were selected. The patients developed the AFLP during pregnancy (34.5±6.8) weeks, with 14 deaths (mortality of 21.9%) and 50 survivors (survival rate of 78.1%). There was no statistically significant difference in general clinical data between the two groups of patients, including age, time from onset to visit, time from visit to cessation of pregnancy, acute physiology and chronic health evaluations II (APACHE II), hospitalization time in ICU, and total hospitalization cost. However, the proportion of male fetuses and stillbirths in the death group was higher than that in the survival group. The laboratory examination indicators including the white blood cell count (WBC), alanine transaminase (ALT), serum creatinine (SCr), PT extension, INR elevation, and hyperammonia in the death group were significantly higher than those in the survival group (all P < 0.05). Through Logistic regression analysis of the above indicators showed that PT > 14 s and INR > 1.5 were risk factors affecting the prognosis of AFLP patients [PT > 14 s: odds ratio (OR) = 1.215, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.076-1.371, INR > 1.5: OR = 0.719, 95%CI was 0.624-0.829, both P < 0.01]. ROC curve analysis showed that both PT and INR at ICU admission and 24, 48, and 72 hours of treatment can evaluate the prognosis of AFLP patients [AUC and 95%CI of PT were 0.772 (0.599-0.945), 0.763 (0.608-0.918), 0.879 (0.795-0.963), and 0.957 (0.904-1.000), respectively; AUC and 95%CI of INR were 0.808 (0.650-0.966), 0.730 (0.564-0.896), 0.854 (0.761-0.947), and 0.952 (0.896-1.000), respectively; all P < 0.05], the AUC of PT and INR after 72 hours of treatment was the highest, with higher sensitivity (93.5%, 91.8%) and specificity (90.9%, 90.9%).@*CONCLUSIONS@#AFLP often occurs in the middle and late stages of pregnancy, and the initial symptoms are mainly gastrointestinal symptoms. Once discovered, pregnancy should be terminated immediately. PT and INR are good indicators for evaluating AFLP patient efficacy and prognosis, and PT and INR are the best prognostic indicators after 72 hours of treatment.