The value of PCPT-RC high risk probability combined with Gleason score for predicting the risk of metastasis in newly diagnosed prostate cancer / 西安交通大学学报(医学版)

ABSTRACT

【Objective】 To investigate the value of prostate cancer prevention trial risk calculator （PCPT-RC） combined with biopsy Gleason score for predicting the risk of metastasis in newly diagnosed prostate cancer patients. 【Methods】 We retrospectively collected the data of 74 patients with newly diagnosed prostate cancer confirmed by biopsy from April 2019 to August 2021， concurrent with 18F-PSMA-1007 PET/CT whole body imaging in the same period. Based on this， a binary logistic regression model was established to obtain the high risk probability of PCPT. We calculated the receiver operating characteristic curve （ROC） was drawn and the area under the curve， Yuden index， sensitivity， specificity， positive predictive value and negative predictive value. We compared the predictive value of the prostate cancer prevention trial risk calculator and Gleason score alone or in combination in predicting the risk of prostate cancer metastasis. 【Results】 Based on the PSMA PET/CT results， 74 patients were divided into non-metastatic group （46/74） and metastatic group （28/74）. PCPT high risk probability ［41.14% （16%-67%）］ vs. ［30.89% （5%-65%）］， Gleason score ［8.5（6-10） score］ vs. ［7.7（6-9） score］， tPSA ［26.24（5.70-42.32） ng/mL］ vs. ［19.58（2.47-49.35） ng/mL］， and fPSA ［3.94（0.82-12.00） ng/mL］ vs. ［2.33（0.35-10.20） ng/mL］ were significantly higher in metastatic group than in non-metastatic group. Binary Logistic regression analysis showed that Gleason score and PCPT low risk probability may be independent predictors of prostate cancer metastasis. PCPT low risk probability alone did not predict the risk of prostate cancer metastasis （P=0.172）. The predictive accuracy of Gleason score and high probability of PCPT in predicting prostate cancer metastasis were 0.715 and 0.679， respectively， and the accuracy of the combined prediction was 0.809. 【Conclusion】 PCPT-RC combined with Gleason score is valuable for predicting the metastasis risk of newly diagnosed prostate cancer patients， which has certain guiding significance for clinical individualized treatment.