Establishment of a nomogram prediction model for risk of COPD complicating pulmonary interstitial fibrosis / 重庆医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze the influencing factors of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)complicating pulmonary interstitial fibrosis,and to establish a nomogram prediction model.Methods The clinical data of 195 patients with COPD admitted and treated in this hospital from January 2019 to Feb-ruary 2021 were retrospectively analyzed.The factors possibly affecting the patients with COPD complicating pulmonary interstitial fibrosis were collected,and the patients were divided into 2 groups according to whether having pulmonary interstitial fibrosis.The independent risk factors were analyzed and screened by the multi-variate logistic regression.Then the nomogram prediction model was constructed.Results Among the includ-ed 195 cases of COPD in this study,there were 50 cases(25.64％)of complicating pulmonary interstitial fi-brosis.The univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis results showed that the smoking history,duration of COPD,frequency of acute exacerbations onset,serum transforming growth factor β1(TGF-β1),basic fibroblast growth factor(bFGF)and angiotensin Ⅱ(AngⅡ)were the independent influencing factors of COPD complicating pulmonary interstitial fibrosis(P＜0.05).The nomogram model was constructed accord-ing to the results of multivariate analysis results,and the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was 0.956(95％CI:0.930-0.983),the average absolute error of internal verification by the Bootstrap method was 0.025,and the prediction model performance basically fitted the ideal model.Conclusion The nomogram model constructed by this study for predicting the pulmonary interstitial fibrosis in COPD patients has high accuracy and distinction degree.