Prediction model construction of depression in patients with lacunar cerebral infarction / 中华急诊医学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate the risk factors of depression in patients with lacunar cerebral infarction 3 months after discharge, and build a risk prediction model.Methods:The clinical data of 237 patients with lacunar cerebral infarction diagnosed and treated in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Wannan Medical College from January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Demographic data, laboratory indicators and risk factors of cardiovascular disease were collected when the patients were admitted to hospital. The patient health questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) score was used to assess the risk of post-stroke depression (PSD) 3 months after discharge. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors of depression. A predictive model was constructed based on the above risk factors. The predictive efficacy was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the clinical applicability of the predictive model was measured by calibration curve and decision curve.Results:Fifty-four patients with lacunar infarction (22.80%) showed symptoms of depression at 3 months after discharge. Multivariate logistic regression showed that women ( OR=2.952, 95% CI: 1.403-6.213, P=0.004), cystatin C ( OR=2.964, 95% CI: 1.222-7.191, P=0.016), apolipoprotein B ( OR=4.836, 95% CI: 1.533-15.258, P=0.007) were the independent risk factors for PSD in patients with lacunar infarction. Activity of daily living (ADL) score ( OR=0.939, 95% CI: 0.915-0.964, P<0.001) was a protective factor for PSD in patients with lacunar infarction. The area under the curve (AUC) of the prediction model was 0.779 (95% CI: 0.703-0.855, P<0.001), which was better than other predictors. Hosmer-Lemeshow H test showed that the model was well calibrated ( P=0.588). In addition, the prediction model of decision curve analysis had a good clinical applicability. Conclusions:The predictive model based on gender, laboratory indicators and daily life ability score can evaluate the risk of PSD in patients with lacunar infarction 3 months after discharge. It is good predictive efficacy and clinical applicability which worth clinical promotion and application.