Constructing a CEA and CA19-9 survival model to predict the survival time of colorectal cancer patients / 临床检验杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To construct a model for predicting the survival time of colorectal cancer(CRC)patients based on the preopera-tive carcinoembryonic antigen(CEA)and carbohydrate antigen 19-9(CA19-9)levels.Methods 313 patients with CRC from Jiangmen Central Hospital were collected and their preoperative serum CEA and CA19-9 levels were detected using a Beckman Access chemilu-minescence immunoassay analyzer.The χ2 test was used to evaluate the relationships between CEA and clinical pathological factors and between CA19-9 and clinical pathological factors,and the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox multivariate analysis were used to as-sess the survival and prognosis of patients,respectively.Results CEA and CA19-9 levels were correlated with TNM staging,clinical stagesⅠ,Ⅱ,Ⅲ,andⅣ,progression,recurrence,vascular invasion,and metastatic sites of CRC(P＜0.05).The overall survival time(OS)of patients with elevated CEA was shorter than that of patients with normal CEA,with a total of 76.85 months,while the OS of patients with normal CEA was 110.83 months(P=0.000).The same trend was observed in patients with elevated CA19-9(P=0.000).Cox multivariate analysis found that CEA and CA19-9 were independent predictors of survival in CRC patients(HR=2.190 and 2.874,95%CI=1.486-3.225 and 1.947-4.242,respectively;P＜0.05).A model formula combining CEA and CA19-9 was constructed,assig-ning a score of 0 for normal CEA,1 for elevated CEA,and 0 for normal CA19-9,1 for elevated CA19-9.The CC value was set to equal CEA score+CA19-9 score.It was found that the patients with the highest CC value had the shortest OS,while the patients with the low-est CC value had the longest OS(P＜0.05).Conclusion The established CEA and CA19-9 model formula can effectively distinguish the prognosis of CRC patients.