Construction and evaluation of a nomogram for adverse cardiovascular events within 1 year after PCI in elderly patients with ACS / 中华老年心脑血管病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To construct a nomogram prediction model for major adverse cardiovascular events(MACE)within 1 year after percutaneous coronary intervention(PCI)in elderly patients with acute coronary syndrome(ACS).Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 551 patients with diagnosed ACS and undergoing PCI in Department of Cardiovascular Medicine of Air Force Medical Center from 1 January 2020 to 1 April 2022.According to the occurrence of MACE during 1 year of follow-up,they were classified into MACE group(n=176)and non-MACE group(n=375).Risk factors for the occurrence of MACE in elderly ACS patients within 1 year after PCI were analysed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression,a nomogram prediction model was constructed,and the predictive power of the model was assessed using the area under the ROC curve(AUC).Results The MACE group had significantly higher Gensini score,systemic immune-inflammation index,and GRACE score,but obviously lower prognostic nutritional index than the non-MACE group(P＜0.01).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that recent smoking(OR=2.222,95％CI:1.361-3.628,P=0.010),hyperlipidaemia(OR=1.881,95％CI:1.145-3.089,P=0.013),prognostic nutritional index(OR=4.645,95％CI:2.788-7.739,P=0.001),LVEF(OR=5.177,95％CI:3.160-8.483,P=0.001),systemic immune-inflammation index(OR=5.396,95％CI:3.179-9.159,P=0.001),and preoperative di-agnosis of non-STEMI(OR=2.829,95％CI:1.356-5.901,P=0.006)or STEMI(OR=3.451,95％CI:1.596-7.463,P=0.002)were independent influencing factors for occurrence of MACE after PCI in elderly ACS patients.ROC curve analysis showed that the AUC value of the nomo-gram model for predicting MACE within 1 year after PCI in elderly ACS patients was 0.888.Con-clusion Our developed nomogram model is simple and practical,and can effectively predict the occurrence of MACE within 1 year after PCI in elderly ACS patients.And external validation should be carried out to ensure its generality.