Simulation study on the effectiveness of accident proneness test in drivers / 中华创伤杂志(英文版)

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To explore the effectiveness of accident proneness test in drivers. METHODS: Accident proneness test results in 100000 drivers were simulated by function of RANNOR using SAS statistical software, their accident records were simulated by function of UNIFORM according to 3 alternatives, the accident rate of qualified drivers was 0.01, and the accident rate of unqualified drivers was 0.01, 0.05 and 0.10, respectively. RESULTS: It was found that there was no effectiveness of accident proneness test if the accident rate of unqualified drivers was equal to that of the qualified ones, if the accident rate of the unqualified drivers was really higher than that of the qualified ones, the test could identify a certain proportion of high risk drivers. CONCLUSIONS: Accident proneness test may be effective to some extent, it is advisable to carry out further prospective study or pilot work so as to practically prove the effectiveness of the test.