Seasonal characteristics and time series analysis of hepatitis E in Shanghai from 2005 to 2019 / 上海预防医学
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine
; (12): 923-928, 2021.
Article
ي Zh
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-904487
المكتبة المسؤولة:
WPRO
ABSTRACT
Objective:To analyze the seasonal characteristics and incidence trend of hepatitis E from 2005 to 2019 in Shanghai, and provide references for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis E. Methods:The seasonal characteristics of hepatitis E in Shanghai from 2005 to 2019 were analyzed by circular distribution method. The incidence trend of hepatitis E was analyzed by ARIMA (autoregressive moving average model). Results:The peak period of hepatitis E in Shanghai from 2005 to 2019 was from November 17 to June 9, and the peak day was on February 27. The time series shows that the optimal model is SARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)12, Akaike information criterion(AIC) and Schwartz Bayesian information criterion (SBC) are 1 243.799 and 1 250.035 respectively, and the residual is white noise sequence. The mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)between the predicted value, and the actual value of this model is 20.253%. The forecast shows a slight decrease in the number of cases of hepatitis E in 2020-2021 compared with 2019, but it is still at a high level. Conclusion:The incidence of hepatitis E in Shanghai shows a solid seasonal characteristic. Health education and prevention/control measures should be conducted well before the epidemic peak. Based on the short-term prediction, the incidence of hepatitis E would still be high. Effective prevention and control strategies should be developed, and active measures should be taken.
النص الكامل:
1
الفهرس:
WPRIM
نوع الدراسة:
Prognostic_studies
اللغة:
Zh
مجلة:
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine
السنة:
2021
نوع:
Article