Risk prediction of neonatal hyperbilirubinemia / 中国新生儿科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To study the predictive value of hour-specific total serum bilirubin(TSB) nomogram combined with clinical risk factors in the risk of hyperbilirubinemia.Method:Perinatal clinical data of newborns born in Shanghai Pudong New Area Health Care Hospital for Women and Children, Shanghai Pudong New Area People's Hospital and Shanghai Pudong Hospital from August 2017 to July 2018 were collected in this prospective study. Transcutaneous bilirubin (TcB) was monitored before discharge from hospital. Enrolled neonates were followed up for 28 days. The patients were assigned to neonatal hyperbilirubinemia group (NHB) and non-hyperbilirubinemia group (Non-HB) according to the occurrence of hyperbilirubinemia. The predictive value of models for the risk of hyperbilirubinemia was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and Logistic regression analysis.Result:A total of 8 664 newborns were included in this study, with 1 196 cases of hyperbilirubinemia, with an incidence of 13.8%. Logistic regression analysis showed that maternal blood type O, premature rupture of membranes, male gender, gestational age 35~37 weeks, subcutaneous ecchymosis/cranial edema, and breastfeeding were independent risk factors for NHB ( P<0.05). The area under receiver operative characteristic curve (ROC) of predischarge bilirubin risk zone only was 0.874(95% CI 0.861~0.885, P<0.05)and for all independent risk factors was 0.664 (95% CI 0.647~0.680, P<0.05). The area under ROC curve was 0.891 (95% CI 0.880~0.902, P<0.05) by combining predischarge bilirubin risk zone with clinical risk factors. Conclusion:Predischarge bilirubin risk zone combined with clinical risk factors can reasonably predict neonatal hyperbilirubinemia well.