Proposal of a clinical score to stratify the risk of multidrug-resistant gram-negative rods bacteremia in cancer patients

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT Introduction: Multidrug-resistant gram-negative rods (MDR GNR) represent a growing threat for patients with cancer. Our objective was to determine the characteristics of and risk factors for MDR GNR bacteremia in patients with cancer and to develop a clinical score to predict MDR GNR bacteremia. Material and Methods: Multicenter prospective study analyzing initial episodes of MDR GNR bacteremia. Risk factors were evaluated using a multiple logistic regression (forward-stepwise selection) analysis including variables with a p < 0.10 in univariate analysis. Results: 394 episodes of GNR bacteremia were included, with 168 (42.6 %) being MDR GNR. Five variables were identified as independent risk factors recent antibiotic use (OR = 2.8, 95 % CI 1.7-4.6, p = 0.001), recent intensive care unit admission (OR = 2.9, 95 % CI 1.1-7.8, p = 0.027), hospitalization ≥ 7 days prior to the episode of bacteremia (OR = 3.5, 95 % CI 2-6.2, p = 0.005), severe mucositis (OR = 5.3, 95 % CI 1.8-15.6, p = 0.002), and recent or previous colonization/infection with MDR GNR (OR = 2.3, 95 % CI 1.2-4.3, p = 0.028). Using a cut-off value of two points, the score had a sensitivity of 66.07 % (95 % CI 58.4-73.2 %), a specificity of 77.8 % (95 % CI 71.4-82.7 %), a positive predictive value of 68 % (95 % CI 61.9-73.4 %), and a negative predictive value of 75.9 % (95 % CI 71.6-79.7 %). The overall performance of the score was satisfactory (AUROC 0.78; 95 % CI 0.73-0.82). In the cases with one or none of the risk factors identified, the negative likelihood ratio was 0.18 and the post-test probability of having MDR GNR was 11.68 %. Conclusions: With the growing incidence of MDR GNR as etiologic agents of bacteremia in cancer patients, the development of this score could be a potential tool for clinicians.