The predictive value of combination of anatomic scoring system and physiological scoring system in prediction of death in patients with severe trauma：a multicenter analysis of 614 cases / 中华危重病急救医学

ABSTRACT

ObjectiveTo compare the predictive value of anatomic scoring system, physiological scoring system, and the combination of two systems in death prediction of patients with severe trauma in intensive care unit (ICU). Methods A retrospective analysis of patients with severe trauma admitted to department of critical care medicine of Daping Hospital, the Third Military Medical University, and Zunyi Medical University from January 2011 to December 2014 was conducted. The patients meeting the following criteria were enrolled over 16 years old, admitted to hospital shorter than 24 hours after trauma, length of ICU stay≥48 hours, and injury severity score (ISS)≥16. Patients were divided into two groups survivors and non-survivors. The data of anatomic scoring system, including ISS and new injury severity score (NISS), and physiological scoring system, including acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ(APACHEⅡ) score were collected. The predictive power for death of the scoring system alone or combination in patients with severe trauma was evaluated.Results A total of 614 patients with severe trauma were enrolled, and there were 153 deaths with a mortality rate of 24.9%. ISS, NISS, APACHEⅡ, ISS+ APACHEⅡ, NISS+ APACHEⅡ of non-survivors were significantly higher than those of survivors (ISS 29.15±7.75 vs. 24.31±6.50, NISS 41.96±12.01 vs. 29.64±8.19, APACHEⅡ 23.71±6.58 vs. 17.02±5.49, ISS+ APACHEⅡ 52.86±10.00 vs. 41.33±8.70, NISS+ APACHEⅡ 65.67±13.46 vs. 46.66±10.43, allP< 0.01). The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of ISS, NISS, APACHEⅡ, ISS+ APACHEⅡ, NISS+ APACHEⅡ was 0.687, 0.792, 0.782, 0.809, and 0.860, respectively. Both of ISS+ APACHEⅡ and NISS+ APACHEⅡ had higher AUC than that of ISS, NISS or APACHEⅡ alone; and the AUC of NISS+ APACHEⅡ was significantly larger than that of ISS+ APACHEⅡ(allP< 0.05). NISS+ APACHEⅡ showed the largest AUC in death prediction of severe trauma patients. The cut-off value, sensitivity, specificity, positive predict value (+PV), negative predict value (-PV), positive likelihood ratio (+LR), negative likelihood ratio (-LR), and Youden index of NISS+ APACHEⅡ, which had the greatest AUC, were 56, 75.2%, 82.0%, 58.1%, 90.9%, 4.17, 0.30, and 0.572, respectively.Conclusion The combination of anatomic scoring system and physiological scoring system is better than single scoring system for death prediction in patients with severe trauma in ICU, and it may be considered to be a new method for early identification of death risk in patients with severe trauma.