Relationship Between Longitudinal Trajectory of Systolic Blood Pressure and Atrial Fibrillation Occurrence in Kailuan Group Population / 中国循环杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective: To explore the relationship between longitudinal trajectory of systolic blood pressure (SPB) and atrial fibrillation (AF) in Kailuan group population. Methods: Our study cohort consisted of 40727 participants with the specific criteria in Kailuan group, Tangshan. SAS Proc Traj procedure was used to identify longitudinal trajectories of SPB throughout 2006-2007, 2008-2009 and 2010-2011. There were 5 longitudinal trajectories generated Low-stable group,n=10950, Moderate-stable group, n=19158, Moderate-high stable group,n=3713, High-moderate stable group,n=4702 and High stable group,n=2181. Log-rank test was performed to compare AF incidence throughout 2012-2013 and 2014-2015 by physical examination among different groups; Multi Cox regression analysis was conducted to study the relationship among different SBP longitudinal trajectories and AF occurrence. Results:①The mean age of participants was (51.81±11.54) years including 30693 (75.4%) male.②AF occurrence rates in Low-stable, Moderate-stable, Moderate-high stable, High-moderate stable and High stable groups were 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.5%, 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, allP<0.05.③Multi Cox regression analysis presented that with adjusted confounding factors, compared with the patients in Low-stable group, Moderate-high stable, High-moderate stable and High stable SBP longitudinal trajectories were the risk factors for new AF occurrence (HR=7.58, 95% CI 2.08-27.73), (HR=5.30, 95% CI 1.88-14.95) and (HR=8.52, 95% CI 1.96-37.09) respectively, allP<0.05. With excluded history of myocardial infarction/stroke, the sensitivity study showed the similar result with the major research trend. Conclusion: Elevated long trajectory of SPB was the risk factor for new AF occurrence in Kailuan group population.