Preliminary analysis of risk prediction model for recurrence and metastasis of thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after radical surgery / 中国医师杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective The aim of this study is to build a risk prediction model for the recurrence and metastasis of thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after radical surgery,and to analyze the factors affecting the disease free survival (DFS).Methods Conducted analysis of 1 191 patients with thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma,who received radical resection from January 2007 to December 2011.The VaR boundary value of the risk prediction model was obtained by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve,and the boundary value was verified.The factors that affected DFS were analyzed by univariate analysis and Cox multiple factor prognosis analysis.Results There were 472 cases had recurrence and metastasis after treatment.There was a significant difference in VaR between patients with and without failure (t =-5.307,P ≤ 0.001).The VaR boundary value was 0.30 according to ROC curve analysis.The recurrence rate of the patients in the VaR ≤ 0.30 group was 27.5％,which was significantly lower than 48.2％ in the ≥0.30 groups (x2 =51.659,P ≤ 0.001).The univariate analysis showed that the patient's sex,the length of the lesion,the degree of tissue differentiation and the VaR value were all factors that significantly affected the recurrence and metastasis of the patients (x2 =13.460,21.111,17.540,39.175,P ≤0.001).Multivariate analysis showed that tissue differentiation and VaR were independent factors affecting recurrence and metastasis of patients (P ≤ 0.001).Conclusions The model can be applied to predict the recurrence and metastasis risk of patients with thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after radical surgery.