Cure and mortality trend in the early outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China / 上海预防医学

ABSTRACT

[Objective] To investigate the cure and mortality trend in the early outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China, enhance the entire epidemiological knowledge about COVID-19, screen the more effective evaluation indicators, and supply the solid evidence for assessing the prevention and control measures and input-output. [Methods] The daily new confirmed cases, the cumulative cure and death cases in China and Hubei Province and outside Hubei Province, which were reported officially from January 20, 2020 to February 20, 2020, were collected to calculate the fatality rate, the ratio of the numbers of cumulative cure cases to cumulative death cases, et al, and to make the epidemiological description. [Results] Till Feb 20, 2020, the fatality rate of COVID-19 in Hubei Province was 3.42%, which was a little higher than that of the global country (2.96%). The fatality rate of COVID-19 outside Hubei Province in China was 0.71%. The trends on the indexes, including the daily new cure cases, daily new death and the ratio of cumulative cure cases to cumulative death, in Hubei Province and the whole country was highly consistent, while the significant difference existed between Hubei Province and outside Hubei Province in China. The daily ratio of cumulative cure cases to cumulative death in Hubei Province (the global country) exhibited the U trend, which reached to the lowest point on Jan 27 and subsequently grew more rapidly after Feb 5. [Conclusion] The ratio of cumulative cure cases to cumulative death was easier and effective to reflect the outbreak situation than other absolute indexes like the daily new cure cases or death. Since Feb 5, 2020, the daily cure status of COVID-19 was superior to the daily death, which indicated the effectiveness of series of the joint defense and control measures from our government and society. However, plenty of challenges exist when recovering the normal production and life if the epidemic reaches to be sustainably defensed and controlled.