Spatial - temporal distribution of malaria in Jiangxi Province from 1950 to 2017 / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To explore the spatial-temporal distribution of malaria in Jiangxi Province from 1950 to 2017, so as to provide scientific evidence for developing the malaria elimination strategy. Methods The epidemic situation of malaria, demographic data, historical species of malaria parasites and transmission vectors were collected from each county of Jiangxi Province from 1950 to 2017 to create a geographic information system database of malaria in Jiangxi Province. The software ArcGIS 10.3 was used to analyze the incidence of malaria and display the spatial-temporal distribution of malaria in Jiangxi Province, so as to explore the spatial-temporal patterns of malaria in the province. Results From 1950 to 2017, the prevalence of malaria was classified into 3 stages in Jiangxi Province, including the peak period (from 1950 to 1975), the continuous decline period (from 1976 to 1997), and the low-level fluctuation period (from 1998 to 2017). During the period from 1950 through 2017, the incidence of malaria declined, the epidemic area of malaria shrank, and the intensity of malaria transmission gradually reduced to no local infections in Jiangxi Province. The spatial distribution of epidemic areas of malaria shifted from southern mountainous areas to northern plain areas, and finally aggregated, retained and disappeared in plain areas. The species of malaria parasites shifted from a co-endemic area for Plasmodium vivax, P. falciparum and P. malariae to a single endemic area for P. vivax, and finally a co-endemic area for imported P. vivax, P. falciparum, P. malariae and P. ovale. The transmission vectors shifted from multiple vectors of Anopheles sinensis, An. minimus, An. anthropophagus and others to a single vector of An. sinensis. Conclusions There are no local malaria cases for successive 6 years since 2012, and the transmission of malaria has been interrupted in Jiangxi Province, in which the criteria for malaria elimination have been achieved. However, the risk of malaria transmission secondary to imported malaria will emerge in Jiangxi Province for a long period of time.