Development and validation of an individualized nomogram for early prediction of the duration of SARS-CoV-2 shedding in COVID-19 patients with non-severe disease / 浙江大学学报(英文版)(B辑:生物医学和生物技术)
Journal of Zhejiang University. Science. B
;
(12): 318-329, 2021.
Article
in English
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-880732
ABSTRACT
With the number of cases of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) increasing rapidly, the World Health Organization (WHO) has recommended that patients with mild or moderate symptoms could be released from quarantine without nucleic acid retesting, and self-isolate in the community. This may pose a potential virus transmission risk. We aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the duration of viral shedding for individual COVID-19 patients. This retrospective multicentric study enrolled 135 patients as a training cohort and 102 patients as a validation cohort. Significant factors associated with the duration of viral shedding were identified by multivariate Cox modeling in the training cohort and combined to develop a nomogram to predict the probability of viral shedding at 9, 13, 17, and 21 d after admission. The nomogram was validated in the validation cohort and evaluated by concordance index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC), and calibration curve. A higher absolute lymphocyte count (
Full text:
Available
Index:
WPRIM (Western Pacific)
Main subject:
Proportional Hazards Models
/
Retrospective Studies
/
Virus Shedding
/
Lymphocyte Count
/
Area Under Curve
/
Viral Load
/
Nomograms
/
COVID-19
/
Antibodies, Viral
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Risk factors
Limits:
Aged
/
Aged80
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
Language:
English
Journal:
Journal of Zhejiang University. Science. B
Year:
2021
Type:
Article
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