Clinical value of improved sequential organ failure assessment in predicting the prognosis of Klebsiella pneumoniae sepsis / 中华传染病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To explore the value of improved sequential organ failure assessment (ISOFA) in predicting the prognosis of Klebsiella pneumoniae sepsis. Methods:The clinical data of 379 patients with Klebsiella pneumoniae sepsis admitted to the First Hospital of Jilin University from January 1, 2018 to June 30, 2019 were retrospectively analyzed.They were divided into survival group and death group according to the 28-day prognosis, and the age, gender, C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, grade of bacterial resistance, and the occurrence of septic shock of the two groups were compared.Statistical analysis was conducted by using independent sample t test, Mann-Whitney U test and chi-square test. Risk factors for the prognosis of the disease was analyzed by logistic regression analysis.The correlation between ISOFA and other scoring system including Charlson′s weighted index of comorbidities (WIC), national early warning system (NEWS), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHEⅡ), simplified acute physiology scoreⅡ (SAPSⅡ), mortality in emergency department sepsis score (MEDS), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), acute gastrointestinal injury (AGI) was determined by Spearman correlation coefficient.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to compare the evaluation value of each scoring system for the prognosis of Klebsiella pneumoniae sepsis. The clinical significance of ISOFA risk stratification was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier survival curve. Results:Among the 379 patients with Klebsiella pneumoniae sepsis, 278 were in the survival group and 101 were in the death group.The differences of age, gender, the occurrence of septic shock, grade of bacterial resistance, C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, WIC, NEWS, APACHEⅡ, SAPSⅡ, MEDS, SOFA, AGI and ISOFA score between the two groups were all statistically significant ( t=-3.218; χ2=6.781, 24.374 and 27.208, respectively; Z=-3.689, -5.022, -4.396, -4.697, -7.438, -6.348, -6.358, -8.676, -6.680 and -11.658, respectively; all P<0.01). The calculation method of ISOFA was obtained by single factor analysis: ISOFA=SOFA+ 1.5×AGI.Multivariate logistic regression suggested that ISOFA, gender, SOFA, procalcitonin, C-reactive protein, and bacterial resistance were independent risk factors for the prognosis of the disease. The Spearman correlation coefficients of ISOFA and WIC, NEWS, APACHEⅡ, SAPSⅡ, MEDS and SOFA were 0.327, 0.371, 0.614, 0.564, 0.578 and 0.847, respectively. The AUROC and its 95% confidence interval for WIC, NEWS, MEDS, SAPSⅡ, APACHEⅡ, SOFA alone, SOFA plus AGI, and ISOFA to predict the prognosis of Klebsiella pneumoniae sepsis were 0.646 (0.584-0.708), 0.657 (0.597-0.716), 0.712 (0.654-0.771), 0.713 (0.653-0.773), 0.749 (0.693-0.806), 0.788 (0.737-0.838), 0.872 (0.826-0.917) and 0.891 (0.845-0.937), respectively.The results showed that ISOFA had the best predictive effect.The Kaplan-Meier survival curve suggested that there were statistical differences in survival rate among ISOFA low-risk level, medium-risk level, and high-risk level (all P<0.01). Conclusion:ISOFA has important clinical significance in predicting the prognosis of Klebsiella pneumoniae sepsis.