Related risk factors analysis of pancreatic fistula after radical resection of gastric cancer and establishment of risk prediction scoring model / 肿瘤研究与临床

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate the risk factors of pancreatic fistula after radical resection of gastric cancer, and to establish a risk prediction scoring model for pancreatic fistula.Methods:The clinico-pathological data of 312 patients with gastric cancer admitted to the Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 2019 to January 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. Multiple factor logistic regression model was used to analyze the risk factors of pancreatic fistula after radical resection of gastric cancer, and a risk prediction scoring model based on the risk factors was established. Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to detect the goodness of fit of regression equation, and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the distinction degree of regression equation.Results:Among 312 patients with gastric cancer, 27 cases (8.65%) had pancreatic fistula after radical resection of gastric cancer. Multiple factor logistic regression analysis showed that male patients ( OR = 5.312, 95% CI 1.532-18.420, P = 0.008), age ≥ 60 years old ( OR = 4.928, 95% CI 1.493-16.250, P = 0.009), preoperative diabetes mellitus ( OR = 3.062, 95% CI 1.091-8.589, P = 0.034), lesion location in the gastric body-gastric antrum ( OR = 3.121, 95% CI 1.052-9.251, P = 0.040), intraoperative omental bursa resection ( OR = 6.209, 95% CI 2.084-18.478, P = 0.001), intraoperative lymph node dissection at D2+ station ( OR = 3.114, 95% CI 1.044-9.281, P = 0.042), intraoperative combined organ resection ( OR = 5.063, 95% CI 1.473-17.400, P = 0.010), preoperative TNM stage Ⅲ ( OR = 4.973, 95% CI 1.189-20.792, P = 0.028) were independent risk factors for pancreatic fistula after radical resection of gastric cancer. A risk prediction equation of pancreatic fistula after radical resection of patients with gastric cancer was established P = -8.619+1.670X 1+1.595X 2+1.119X 3+1.138X 4+1.826X 5+1.136X 6+1.622X 7+1.604X 8; factor X was set as a binomial assignment (0 or 1); X1-X8 were listed as follows respectively gender (the male was 1), age (≥60 years old was 1), preoperative diabetes history (yes was 1), lesion location (gastric body-gastric antrum was 1), intraoperative resection of omental bursa or not (yes was 1), intraoperative lymph node dissection at D2+ station or not (yes was 1), intraoperative combined organ resection or not (yes was 1), preoperative TNM stage (stage Ⅲ was 1). The goodness of fit of regression equation was high ( P = 0.395). The area under the curve of ROC by using risk prediction scoring model to judge pancreatic fistula was 0.916 (95% CI 0.872-0.960, P<0.01). The probability of pancreatic fistula in patients with score ≥ 5 was 40.90%, and the probability of pancreatic fistula in patients with score < 5 was 3.35%. Conclusions:The occurrence of pancreatic fistula after radical resection of gastric cancer is closely related to a variety of risk factors. By establishing a risk prediction scoring model for pancreatic fistula after radical resection of gastric cancer, it is helpful to effectively identify patients with high risk of pancreatic fistula after radical surgery during the perioperative period.